Vietnam Assets

Monday, Jul 20 2009 by
16

This thread has been created to discuss the Vietnam assets. These currently consist of:

a) CNV - an operating field in block 9-2 with 155mn boe of gross 2P reserves

b) TGT - a field which is about to enter development. Gross 2p recoverable reserves of 300+mn boe (management think it will ultimately be closer to 500mn) should be confirmed soon, as the final government approval for the development plan is now very close.

c) TGD and the rest of the HPHT appraisal area - huge exploration potential of over 1bn boe P50 recoverable

d) VT appraisal area - a small discovery area likely to be relinquished

I'll fill in more details in due course.

ee


Disclaimer:  

As per our Terms of Use, Stockopedia is a financial news & data site, discussion forum and content aggregator. Our site should be used for educational & informational purposes only. We do not provide investment advice, recommendations or views as to whether an investment or strategy is suited to the investment needs of a specific individual. You should make your own decisions and seek independent professional advice before doing so. The author may own shares in any companies discussed, all opinions are his/her own & are general/impersonal. Remember: Shares can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a guide to future performance & investors may not get back the amount invested.


Do you like this Post?
Yes
No
19 thumbs up
3 thumbs down
Share this post with friends



SOCO International plc (SOCO) is an oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company's segments include South East Asia and Africa. It has field development and production interests in Vietnam, and exploration and appraisal interests in the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) and Angola. In Vietnam, SOCO's Block 16-1 and Block 9-2 include the Te Giac Trang and Ca Ngu Vang Fields, which are located in shallow water in the Cuu Long Basin, near the Bach Ho Field. SOCO holds working interest in Block 16-1 and Block 9-2 through its subsidiaries, SOCO Vietnam Ltd and OPECO Vietnam Limited. SOCO holds its interests in the Marine XI Block, located offshore Congo (Brazzaville) in the shallow water Lower Congo Basin, through its subsidiary, SOCO EPC. SOCO holds working interest in the Mer Profonde Sud Block, offshore Congo (Brazzaville) through its subsidiary, SOCO Congo BEX Limited. SOCO's subsidiary, SOCO Cabinda Limited, holds participation interests in the Cabinda North Block. more »

LSE Price
111p
Change
-0.9%
Mkt Cap (£m)
371.8
P/E (fwd)
n/a
Yield (fwd)
2.1



  Is SOCO International fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


476 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

kenobi 5th Sep '11 137 of 476
2


I hope that if SOCO bids for the new licences they will do so through another company (not soco vietnam),
so that the current assets can then be sold off seperately from any new blocks,

K

| Link | Share
Samurai 6th Sep '11 138 of 476

Talking of netbacks.
I was wondering if anyone knows the rate of interest that is paid to Soco by the other partners for the repayment of their capex invested in the exploration and development. of the VN fields
Must be a tidy sum.

Samurai

| Link | Share | 1 reply
emptyend 6th Sep '11 139 of 476

In reply to Samurai, post #138

9%....and it has been accumulating for over 10 years. That is only the minority partner of course - PV doesn't pay interest on their carry.

| Link | Share
emptyend 17th Sep '11 140 of 476
12

Not a reporting source that I would care to rely on 100%, but it was apparently claimed by the General Manager of Hoang Long JOC at a first oil ceremony yesterday that TGT production is already running at 42,800 bopd.......

...which, if true, should be giving the doubters pause for thought......  ;-)

IMO that indicates a pretty quick and trouble free ramp-up (so far!)

ee

| Link | Share | 3 replies
nigelpm 17th Sep '11 141 of 476

That is fantastic news if true ee.

Great spot.

| Link | Share
kenobi 17th Sep '11 142 of 476

Wow that would be fantastic news, certainly would make sense to under promise and over deliver

I wonder when we'll hear an update from soco on TGT production ?

K

| Link | Share
peterg 17th Sep '11 143 of 476
4

In reply to emptyend, post #140

Interesting. Since they ramped up from 16kbopd on the 24th Aug to 28.5kbopd on the 7th Sept a further step up to about 42kbopd now seems entirely possible.

I note that production plan calls for a plateau at about 40kbpod, while production facilities are tested etc, so we should presumably not expect any further significant step up for a while yet. Though getting to this stage so quickly, and apparently smoothly, must be good news - quite apart from the revenue!

| Link | Share
MadDutch 18th Sep '11 144 of 476

In reply to emptyend, post #140

Nice work ee, thank you.

MD
.... from the sunny Cap d'Agde, sky grey as lead right now!

| Link | Share
tournesol 20th Sep '11 145 of 476
7

In reply to emptyend, post #140

EE

thanks for that

I note that report says "....Half a million barrels of crude oil valued at US$60 million are being traded from the Armada Te Giac Trang 01 FPSO (floating, production, storage and off-floating vessel) to international clients....."

which implies a price of $120/bbl

which seems quite handsome to me

T

| Link | Share | 1 reply
emptyend 21st Sep '11 146 of 476
2

In reply to tournesol, post #145

I note that report says "....Half a million barrels of crude oil valued at US$60 million are being traded from the Armada Te Giac Trang 01 FPSO (floating, production, storage and off-floating vessel) to international clients....."

which implies a price of $120/bbl

Well I'm sure there is a rounding error in there, but since we know that the last cargo is reported to have sold at $2 over Minas....and we know that Minas is $5-6 over Brent....and we can all see where Brent trades.....it is clearly selling in the vicinity of $120 currently.

ee

| Link | Share | 1 reply
emptyend 22nd Sep '11 147 of 476
5

In reply to emptyend, post #146

Cross-posting from ADVFN for reference:

It is worth noting, for those who care about fundamentals, that the USD has moved from c. $1.65 to under $1.55 over the last month.....which is a shift of 6% or so. In contrast, Brent has gone down by only around 3%.

Incidentally - this seems a useful source of very recent prices for Minas in the Far East...confirming that Minas was at $112.75 yesterday for November delivery in Tokyo (I guess it would be c. $3 lower today)

On the basis of yesterday's numbers I guess that TGT crude would be c $115-116 (Brent-Minas spreads having apparently narrowed recently, assuming data sources are comparable)......

....but because of the USD/GBP FX move there is probably little change in GBP terms.

ee

| Link | Share
merecat 27th Oct '11 148 of 476
2

KNOC in buying mood?

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3E7LR0CT20111027

"PV Oil, Petrovietnam's trading arm, has not offered any spot Su Tu Den cargoes for December after production hit a sharp natural decline this year.

Joeng also said KNOC had made no decision yet about whether or not to consider buying ConocoPhillips' 23.25 percent stake in a complex of five oil fields in Cuu Long basin block 15-1"

EG

| Link | Share
emptyend 2nd Nov '11 149 of 476
7

Just to cut and paste a couple of my comments on ADVFN, following yesterday's IMS:

A number of people seem to have misread the RNS and leapt to the wrong conclusion over timing. This is partly because of the phrase "The Phase II development will continue though 2012 with additional production complementing Phase I volumes from mid-2012.” which some have wrongly read as indicating that plateau production from phase 1 won't occur until mid 2012 [nb...the "some" includes Merrill Lynch, Reuters and Upstream]
I would point out that Q1 starts in January. And I'd suggest that the plans will be prepared for an OpCom sometime in February. And I'd further suggest that (since it only requires them to perforate the Miocene interval in three wells) reaching plateau is likely to be accomplished 2-3 weeks after them taking the decision to perforate.
90% of the reserves are in the Miocene, not the Oligocene. The delays in the ramp up are IMO completely down to the (natural) preference of PV to ensure they understand the Oligocene reservoir well enough that even that few % doesn't get left behind.

and

It is worth pointing out that four of these development wells are planned to be drilled from the H1 location that is the production centre for phase 1.....as the RNS says: A revised reservoir management plan, reviewing amendments to the current 2012 development drilling programme, which includes four wells from the H1 well head platform, and individual well management plans to achieve plateau production of 55,000 BOPD is to be reviewed and agreed by the first quarter of 2012

...those four wells are undoubtedly intended to drain the areas to the east and the north-west which show up on the reprocessed PSDM 2009 seismic as substantially increasing the size of the field (see slide 7 in the interims presentation). It is highly likely that there would be a possibility of changing the planned design of one or two of them - but they need a bit more Oligocene reservoir data to determine whether that is worthwhile or not (and they didn't have quite enough by the time of the October OpCom).

ee

| Link | Share
unwise2 2nd Nov '11 150 of 476
2

From yesterdays RNS:

Work is underway to install additional dedicated test separation and metering facilities on the Bach Ho central processing platform complex in order to more accurately measure liquid and gas production from the CNV production stream entering the Bach Ho facilities. The separator is currently being installed with the metering equipment expected to be installed in the first quarter of 2012. The benefit to the Company will be a more accurate allocation of CNV oil, gas and gas liquids production within the Bach Ho production system, which is expected to add approximately 2,000 BOPD to the liquids stream.

I believe once the gas and condensate can be measured and a price agreed it will result in further 2P reserves booked at CNV. Does anyone know an estimate of the upgrade this will provide?

 

 

| Link | Share | 1 reply
emptyend 2nd Nov '11 151 of 476
4

In reply to unwise2, post #150

I believe once the gas and condensate can be measured and a price agreed it will result in further 2P reserves booked at CNV. Does anyone know an estimate of the upgrade this will provide?

In the order of 50mn boe I believe. And a final gas sales agreement should enable them to get backdated payments for 18 months of production, as they've only been getting a modest payment "on account", whereas the dry gas price agreed could be c.$2 higher (with the liquids on top of that). Could be getting on for $30-40mn in backpayments if I've got my numbers roughly right (though no guarantees on that!!!!)

ee

| Link | Share | 1 reply
unwise2 7th Nov '11 152 of 476

In reply to emptyend, post #151

Thanks for the info ee, I guess that is a gross 2P number, so Soco could get an uplift of 12.5mn boe?

| Link | Share | 1 reply
emptyend 7th Nov '11 153 of 476

In reply to unwise2, post #152

Yup.

| Link | Share
emptyend 15th Dec '11 154 of 476
3

Lest we forget, drilling of the various development wells at TGT is continuing. From the IMS:

The TGT Phase II development drilling operations commenced offshore Vietnam in October with the spudding of the first well at the H4 wellhead platform by the PetroVietnam Drilling PVD-1 jack up drilling rig.  Batch drilling of the five wells is ongoing with all surface casing set. The wells are expected to be completed for production start up in August 2012....

....the current 2012 development drilling programme, which includes four wells from the H1 well head platform

.....so: five wells are being drilled from the H4 platform (should finish around the end of February) and then 4 wells (or perhaps more) will be drilled from the H1. IMO they will finish designing the reservoir management plan re H1 by February - and will perf the Miocene on the existing wells by February too, enabling them to move up to plateau.

I'd guess they are now starting to acquire some useful data on the H4 reservoirs - which should give a good guide on eventual total production rates for TGT and enable the field economics and reserves to be well pinned-down....by any buyer.

ee

| Link | Share | 1 reply
davjo 15th Dec '11 155 of 476
2

In reply to emptyend, post #154

I'd guess they are now starting to acquire some useful data on the H4 reservoirs

If they are "batch drilling", i.e. drilling down to say the first casing point on well No.1 and then repeating the operation on wells 2 to 5, I doubt they're anywhere near reservoir surely?

 

Just saying ;-)

| Link | Share | 1 reply
emptyend 15th Dec '11 156 of 476
2

In reply to davjo, post #155

I doubt they're anywhere near reservoir surely?

Dunno about that. They should be about halfway through the drilling of all five wells, according to the interims presentation as updated by the IMS. Can't be that far off drilling into reservoir on the first of five? 10 weeks to the end of Feb would only be two weeks per well, if they stay on schedule.....

....hence "now starting".

Somewhat academic for now, but the important point is that a lack of RNS news doesn't mean a lack of meaningful activity. At some point there will be news of all five together - but they might, for example, give an update on the first 2-3 sometime in Jan?

cheers

ee

| Link | Share

What's your view on this thread? Log In to Comment Now

You can track all @StockoChat comments via Twitter

 Are SOCO International's fundamentals sound as an investment? Find out More »





Stock Picking Tutorial Centre


Related Content

Let’s get you setup so you get the most out of our service
Done, Let's add some stocks
Brilliant - You've created a folio! Now let's add some stocks to it.

  • Apple (AAPL)

  • Shell (RDSA)

  • Twitter (TWTR)

  • Volkswagon AG (VOK)

  • McDonalds (MCD)

  • Vodafone (VOD)

  • Barratt Homes (BDEV)

  • Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Tesco (TSCO)
Save and show me my analysis