Why aren’t front-line Asian Doctors still dying of Covid-19? Bioventix (BVXP) & the prospects for routine Vitamin D testing

5th Jan '21 by Maddox

39 comments 2952 reads

Vitamin D test antibody sales growth of has been a significant contributor to Bioventix (LON:BVXP) revenue and profits growth over the last few years. This continued at +10% for 2019/20 over 2018/19 (and +27% 2017/18 previously) but CEO Peter Harrison sees evidence of a plateau in the downstream global vitamin D assay market. However, this might not be the end of the growth story for Vitamin D testing, and here’s why.

There is a huge and growing amount of data showing a strong correlation between Vitamin D deficiency and the worst consequences of Covid-19.

Vitamin D as a preventative measure

Early on in the UK pandemic it was clear that Black African & Asian NHS Doctors were highly susceptible to Covid-19. This was evident from tragic news reports of front-line doctors dying of Covid-19 that all seemed to be Asian. In the first month of lockdown 25 front-line doctors died of which 24 were of Black African or Asian ethnicity. You might be wondering why you are not still hearing of the awful slaughter continuing. Well, the British Association of Physicians of Indian Origin wrote out to their members on 29 April advising them to take Vitamin D.

https://www.bapio.co.uk/vitamin-d-recommendations-for-bme-staff/

They also organised the distribution of vials of fast-acting Vitamin D (Calcifediol) to medics. The drop-off in deaths is nothing short of miraculous.

Vitamin D as a treatment

This effect has recently been supported by a pilot study that demonstrated a dramatic benefit from administering a large dose of Calcifediol (this is 25-hydroxy-vitamin D the form of vitamin D stored by the human body) to Covid-19 patients entering a hospital A & E Dept. This study in Spain at a hospital in Córdoba on 76 patients, 50 patients were given Calcifediol – only one went to intensive care and none died – of the 26-patient control group 13 required intensive care and two died. Whilst a small sample these results are highly significant.

Acceptance of Vitamin D efficacy

The UK’s medical establishment (PHE Public Health England and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE)) appear to be moving very slowly in updating their health advice; so far stating only that Vitamin D ‘may also have a role in the body's immune response to respiratory viruses.’

Whilst ‘gold standard’ double-blind placebo-controlled trials for Covid-19 and Vitamin D…

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Rusty2

7th Jan '21

OK thanks, did not know that about Spain and Italy. Germany is also low. But I think there are many factors at play here.

From what I can find, Mexico does not seem too bad.The UK is much worse in winter than summer and Scotland is worse than England.

In hot countries people tend to keep out of the sun which could explain why some readings are low for vitamin D.

Macro

Yes, Vitamin D in northern areas is linked to Multiple Sclerosis - Scotland is the MS capital of Europe.

But, if you go a bit further North their high intake of fatty/oily fish means they are less likely to get MS than those in Scotland who do not like Mackerel / Herring etc as much as the Nordics.

There are other benefits of Vit D - especially for middle aged males, whose natural Testosternone production may be waning with older age. A Vit D boost can result in ... er ... 'a bit of a boost'.

WarrantStar

8th Jan '21

Thanks for a very interesting post. However, we should bear in mind that a correlation between two variables, such as vitamin D levels & susceptability to Covid , does not prove that it is a matter of cause & effect. The susceptability may be caused by any number of other factors eg, occupation, genetic make up, obesity or other underlying health conditions. To prove cause & effect would need a lot more detailed research. I hope that this research is being done, because it is just possible that it really is a matter of cause & effect. It could be that it just has not YET been proved, or it could be that it will NEVER be proved because it isn't really a matter of cause & effect.

Maddox

Well then, you best not risk taking a Vitamin D supplement then WarrantStar - you can act as our Control Group ;-)

Very good ;-) However, just to confuse the situation even more, I have been taking a daily multivitamin for years!

XTR

Correlation isn't causation type arguments are truisms which add nothing to the debate. One could just as easily say that 'correlation isn't not causation'.

Decades prior to establishing a causal link between smoking and cancer there was correlation and many thousands of lives were painfully cut short by deciding that this didn't matter.

Wouldn't a risk to benefit approach be more sensible?

XTR I'm sure that there is room for a risk to benefit approach and it would probably be a good idea. But the problem is that the benefits cannot be properly assessed without proof of causation.

shipoffrogs

Yes, - Pascal's wager.

Digression into Theology might be a bit of a stretch, even for this thread!

Nick Ray

To prove cause & effect would need a lot more detailed research. I hope that this research is being done, because it is just possible that it really is a matter of cause & effect.

For anyone with an interest, here are 2225 papers on Vitamin D and COVID.

So as you'd expect, lots of research is being done on this and many other aspects of COVID.

Thanks Nick

It's reassuring that so much research is being conducted.

GrahamF

A key issue in the vitamin D debate is that the skin cancer awareness lobby have got more publicity over recent years. Hence we are told to slap on high factor sunscreen as soon as the sun comes out which suppresses our vitamin D production.

The trouble with many dietary supplements is that the improved outcome they create is relatively weak, doesn’t necessarily work for everyone, and requires long detailed and expensive studies to demonstrate.

Helga Rhein

Nothing against testing. But adults could also safely just take 4000 IU daily, more if overweight, without testing. This would land them safely in the green zone of the 25(OH)D level and would certainly not be too much.

Here is another info site www.scotsneedvitamind.com

Owen Parry

10th Jan '21

So many people in sunny countries avoid the sun, and they have darker skins than Northern Europeans and so produce the vitamin relatively slowly in the sun. Vitamin deficiency can be very high in these countries

Study explores genetics of vitamin D deficiency in Mexico (nutraingredients-latam.com)

18th Jan '21

David Davis MP (Conservative) has been promoting Vitamin D together with Rup Haq MP (Labour) this is really impressive interview, he really knows the science.

;t=2307s

Snowbum

19th Jan '21

Thanks for this article Maddox. Very interesting, also comforting as I also take a daily Vit D supplement, mainly for skin related issues.

Chart looking quite constructive too, possibly ready to break into new highs, watching closely this week for possible entry. Cheers, Forbsy.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/...

6th Feb '21

Please sign-up and distribute this campaign for a Parliamentary Petition :

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/564133 (it takes seconds)

I've teamed-up with Taz Edwards-White and other enlightened people to try and get the Government to wake-up and see the very obvious case for promoting Vitamin D to BAME and other vulnerable groups.

Join our fb group: https://www.facebook.com/group...

Let's see whether we can make this campaign go viral!

Regards Maddox

timarr

Pacal's Wager isn't really theology, it's generally applicable philosophy (which Pascal used to show that believing in God was the logical thing to do). In this case:

I don't take Vit-D and it doesn't protect against CV-19 = no difference
I don't take Vit-D and it does protect against CV-19 = potentially massive downside
I do take Vit-D and it doesn't protect against CV-19 = small upside due to other benefits of Vit-D
I do take Vit-D and it does protect against CV-19 = potentially massive upside.

So not taking Vit-D offers a chance of a big negative and taking Vit-D offers the chance of a big positive. Therefore, logically, we should all take Vit-D.

Which, to be fair, is what NICE and the government recommend:

https://www.nice.org.uk/guidan...
https://www.gov.uk/government/...

Although there are a lot of studies that point towards Vit-D deficiencies as somehow linked to CV-19 mortality there are also a lot of CV-19 deaths in countries with a great deal more sunshine than the UK - India has had 155,000 deaths, Brazil 230,000. The chance that CV-19 can be stopped by something as simple as a vitamin supplement is pretty small.

But we should all take it, it does no harm, for most of us it's beneficial and there's a chance it could help protect us against CV-19.

And I should probably get out more. If only ...

timarr

7th Feb '21

One thing people don’t realise is that in the UK the sun isn’t strong enough for much of the year to generate any significant amount of DNA. So, even if you are wearing shorts and a T-shirt on a warm spring day the benefit in terms of Vitamin D is minimal.

Added to that, because of concerns about skin cancer, people are using high factor sunscreen in the UK in the height of summer, which will also reduce the amount of vitamin D created by being out in the sun.

14th Feb '21

Pre-print research in the Lancet shows that patients arriving at hospital with Covid-19 symptoms treated with fast-acting Vitamin D are:

>> Nearly, four times less likely to require Intensive Care Unit (ICU) treatment; and

>> Sixty-per-cent less likely to die.

>> There were no adverse effects reported from Vit D treatment.

(preprint = yet to be peer reviewed - this is a 930 patient study in Spain https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/p... )

Dr John Campbell, whom is a strong advocate for Vit D, takes 3000 IU/day (3x 25 micro gram tablets of D3 - measured himself and yet had a low Vit D blood level :

;t=1254s

I think I'll get myself tested,

Wishing you good health,

Regards, Maddox

Why aren’t front-line Asian Doctors still dying of Covid-19? Bioventix (BVXP) & the prospects for routine Vitamin D testing

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Maddox

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