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Write up of the Simon Young FM interview

A Yellowstone Advisory webinar

A fireside chat with Simon Young, Fund Manager of the UK Equity Income Fund for AXA Framlington

‘Unearthing winners, avoiding losers and making mistakes.’

Stepping well away from the well-trodden path of medicine that is a Young family tradition, Simon has carved his own way in finance and fund management over the last 20+ years starting at Mercury which became Blackrock, a spell in IR then back to doing what he does best, fund management at AXA Framlington. His UK Equity Income Fund is now a top decile performer in its sector.

Piecing together the intricate mosaic around the companies to build the richest picture he can establish is something he thoroughly enjoys. From simple googling of the company, to searching the eye-opening job boards, reading trust pilot reviews of the company’s customer satisfaction ratings and meeting management all combine to develop a broader view. Talking to competitors and combining the insights from social media are all part of the arsenal of techniques to learn more about each company on his radar.

Twitter is a treasure trove of eclectic opinions; some irrational and some rational. There is always the caveat however, to be aware of spurious claims but it can throw up some well-balanced sentiments from the likes of @Rhomboid1, @Boros10 (Leon Boros), @WheelieDealer, @Conkers3 (Peter Higgins), @Reb40 (Aston Girl), @dosh100 (Stock Whittler), @GrahamNeary and @Carmensfella. These FinTwit contributors post intelligent and illuminating pieces. Journalists such as @MorganHousel, @MuddyWatersre, @IanCassel, @HowardMarksBook and @Jeremy_Grantham are all incredibly insightful for Simon. Ditto podcasts such as the #TwinPetesInvesting and @PatrickOShag.

Over Simon’s career he has seen several crises such as the ’97 Asian shock, the Dotcom boom and bust, the 2008 global stock market collapse and the Covid-19 current quagmire. None were predicted. On this basis, the criteria he looks at to choose investments are high barriers to entry and a competitive advantage so the company can endure the hard times and still make money. These principles can be broken down into:

Principle 1: Finding the lowest cost providers where the competition finds it hard to cut their costs to below yours e.g. Ryanair.

Principle 2: A high level of Intellectual Property in the shape of brands and patents preventing competitive entry.

Principle 3: A high level of effective sales networks to optimise all possible sales avenues.

Principle 4: High levels of repeat income such as subscribers or long-standing customers who will continue to buy come what may, such as with Sage plc who produce accounting software.

Steering away from technicals and sticking to his key principles is how he consistently delivers on his portfolio. Meeting management can also often elucidate otherwise dry presentations and accounts. You can really pick up the sense of their drive with personal contact. Quoting Ian Cassel, Simon wants to find the ‘intelligent fanatics’ who are the stars of the show. The late Tony Pidgely of Berkley Group plc was a brilliant example of a best in class FTSE CEO. Polite questioning produces the best results; however he can vouch that if a company feels the pressure it may be the alarm bell needed to reassess the holding.

One of Simon’s largest position is Games Workshop plc which is now c.7% of the fund. Hitting all the principles as to what he seeks when investing his holding has increased from 3% in 2017 to the current level as the shares have more than doubled. Running winners where the criteria hasn’t changed is his philosophy. If the business is still growing, it continues to exhibit the positive principles as detected at the outset with a strong ROC, little competition and still has few barriers to entry then running with the stock despite strong performance is his preference. He does acknowledge though that stubborn pig-headedness is not a friend and selling must be done if necessary.

Integrafin plc is a highly rated holding in his fund which offers Transact, a platform for wealth managers and IFAs. Ticking off his key investment criteria he wishes he had bought more earlier as it has proven a strong performer. As a Director sold stock last week he will ensure he recaps his checklist and acknowledges we don’t always know the reasons for this kind of Director activity. If there is cause for concern then redeployment of capital is always the right answer.

£AstraZeneca plc is a clear favourite for Simon. With a slew of long-term patents and some huge blockbuster oncology meds it ticks boxes left, right and centre. CLS Holdings plc (LON:CLS) has impressed with strong management so is a recent purchase despite its counterintuitive focus on office properties.

Simon’s fund is for income and so he hunts for yields greater than the market and will always consider special dividend situations if it is out of excess cash flow and not capital. Admiral Insurance plc regularly do this, which he finds acceptable. Again, if the rest of the investment proposition is sound then this element also passes the test.

Observing the present Covid-19 turbulence he is looking for opportunities where companies can ride the storm. Exceptional examples are Admiral Insurance plc and Sabre Insurance plc which have both seen supernormal profits as less driving and thus less accidents have meant less payouts. The Biotech space is abundant in opportunity, but he normally veers away from non-profit making companies.

Red flags for Simon are related party transactions, suspicious financing figures, management saying one thing and doing another and overly promotional management where the figures don’t reflect the enthusiasm. Stockopedia has a great Earnings Manipulation Score which is very helpful.

Using a fund manager versus investing for oneself is a debate had by many. Professor Henrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University has studied 60,000 stocks over a 28-year period and found more than 60% underperformed cash in that period. The net growth came from just 1% of all the companies. Using a fund means you have a full time Fund Manager to sift stocks and research, check and assess positions to find the elusive winners. Given that personal investing means the investment of not just your money but also of your own enormous amount of time, then the fees look very worthwhile.

Passive investing, he believes gives opportunities to active FMs who can take much longer-term positions than the AI counterparts can. Machines may miss red flags and cannot meet management leaving the role of fund managers still firmly embedded in the future.

Yellowstone are very grateful to Simon for his time and open answers to multitude of questions. A recording of the presentation can be found on our YouTube channel here.

If you want to hear about future company and investor webinars please subscribe by emailing info@yellowstoneadvisory.com

Disclaimer

This is not financial advice. Our content is intended to be used and must be used for information and education purposes only. Please read our disclaimer and terms and conditions to understand our obligations.

6 comments


Avatar for iwright7

Nick,

I was intrigued by your comment about the type of stocks that out-preform and that a small club of 100 stocks are doing all the work and that these can be identified by screening for High QM stocks. 

Your concept is borne out by the 5year return of the Stocko QM quarterly re-balanced screen which is +120%.  This compares very favourably with the benchmark 5year FTSE All Share return of -6%!

I next looked at the industry sectors within the current Top 100 QM stocks (which range from 93-100 QM). I suppose the question then is whether to further screen from this Top 100 subset, or to randomly allocate in a portfolio? In particular should one select by particular industry sectors, or other factor(s)?


Current Top 100 QM (Scoring 93-100)

25% Industrials
23% Technology

14% Basic Materials
12% Consumer Cyclicals
11% Financials
9% Consumer Defensives
4% Healthcare
1% Utility
1% Telecoms

Currently Industrials and Technology companies make up half (48%) the Top 100 QM stocks and because  Momentum is inherently strong one must assume that the market believes that these sector earnings growth are (or will be) least affected by COVID effects?

This market beating potential may be my confirmation bias because I am a great fan of high QM stocks. Looking at my own portfolio allocation it is 36% Tech and 6% Industrials (Technology + Industrials = 42%), so I am by default close to the combined top two of the current Top 100 QM sector weightings. On reflection maybe a bit light on 93+ QM Industrials though?    Ian

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Avatar for Nick Ray
Using a fund manager versus investing for oneself is a debate had by many. Professor Henrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University has studied 60,000 stocks over a 28-year period and found more than 60% underperformed cash in that period. The net growth came from just 1% of all the companies.

You see this effect all the time. There seems to be a small club of about 100 stocks which are doing all the work. But it's no secret which ones they are because they dominate the "top movers" lists and also any screen based on QM principles.

In fact I suspect that the idea that "you can't consistently beat the market" really only applies to the market as defined by this set. It is quite easy to under-perform that set but extremely difficult to out-perform it. By contrast it is relatively straightforward to out-perform the whole market just by weeding out the worst of the worst.

[Extra thought: maybe because it is so quick to use a screen and find the good quality stocks this explains why they are almost always "too expensive" - in other words have a low Value Rank. In a world of instant info hunting for value doesn't work (with simplistic rules anyway) because everyone else has all the same tools available to them too.]

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Avatar for Damian Cannon

That's a very good interview thanks Kate. Well worth an hour of anyone's time: 

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Avatar for Kate Divito

Thank you, Damian - any other people you suggest we interview like this?

Kate

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Avatar for Damian Cannon

That's a good question Kate. Off the top of my head I'd like to hear from Nick Train, Terry Smith, Andy Brough and people like that. However it might by equally interesting to here from some less well known FMs who operate similar strategies?

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Avatar for Kate Divito

Great ideas - leave it with us to see what we can do....

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