15th Jun '12


Real Name: Andrew Butter

Occupation: Private Equity

Interests: Economics, Emerging Markets, European Markets, Gold, Interest Rates, International Stocks, Oil, Private Equity, Property, Stocks, US Market

About Me:

Background  technology-orientated EPC (1980-90), market research (1990-2000) and real estate development management  (2000-2005), currently doing ad-hoc interim management mainly relating to turnarounds and start-ups. Based in Dubai, degree in bio-resource engineering.


Andrew Butter's Latest Blogs

Post-IPO the experts are jostling for space on Prime Time; many are saying they all knew Facebook was outrageously overvalued; or as Peter Schiff put it, “It’s the Valuation Stupid”. None are saying $38 is cheap these days. Some say they felt it in their bones. Some say it’s all about the alignment of Jupiter with Mars or perhaps the Fibonacci constellation; some are talking…

If the fundamental value of gold measured in US-Dollars wasn’t a mystery before; then the past few weeks have added another dimension to the confusion. Supposedly gold is a “safe haven”, so when the rumors of Armageddon started circulating about the Euro, the price “ought” to have gone up? It didn’t, it went down…by much for that theory. Is the latest story that the…

Everyone was waiting with baited breath for the news about QE-3. But perhaps the number to watch was Q-3 nominal GDP, coming soon!! The important message Ben Bernanke had in Jackson Hole was that the Federal Reserve cannot, on its own, create economic growth in America (or jobs), simply by making it more or less attractive for banks to lend; and thus for Americans and…

I suspect that even the most sophisticated student of Econ-101 would concede that the trajectory of the price of oil in 2008 was a bubble and that 2009 was a bust? Not that anyone has come up with a convincing theory for what it was that pumped up the bubble or what finally popped it, outside of the old favorites such as…the insanity of crowds,…

As the bankers queue up to get served their pound of flesh, which is all that’s currently on offer, it’s hard not to notice the striking similarities between the Greece of today and Germany in 1923. Then Germany owed billions thanks to a treaty that was made in a French-speaking country along with an offer that couldn’t be refused, back then Versailles, this time Maastricht.   …

Andrew Butter's Latest Comments

I agree that Benford analysis sounds like a very powerful tool, I was very interested to hear about it. The thrust of my argument was not that public companies don't fiddle their numbers, clearly they do, it was simply that you can't assume it's to defraud their shareholders (not all the time anyway); there are plenty of other reasons to "unrock" the boat.

Very interesting, but I'm not sure that it's fair to compare the level of incompetence of the EU in general and EU governments specifically with companies that list on leading public stock markets. The difference is that companies are audited, the EU in Brussels famously didn't get it's audit signed off on numerous occasions and it's internal auditors resign all the time, governments are not…

The "beauty" of gold is that there isn't much new stuff to be found which is why it's used as money. I don't think that changes in the supply/demand will affect price much, I could see a situation where no new gold is mined and still the price would be determined by a "fundamental" linked to the state of the various fiat currencies, and the…

Well said but I'm not sure how realistic it is to rely on "sensible" government.

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