5 mins ago


Occupation: Analyst, Consultant, Private Investor

Interests: Economics, European Markets, Stocks, US Market

Fantasy Fund: Andrewdb's Fund 1

About Me:

Day job

started as an actuarial student because it started with 'a' turned programmer turned admin consultant turned systems consultant/project manager/ whatever clients are happy to pay for.

Always liked topology/numeric analysis. Did 2/3 msc in AI. Moved house.

Grow vines to make bad wine.

Lately been interested in SVMs/ NNets, but not seen the amazing results quoted in my attempts.

Investment Strategy
I trade... a few times per year
I tend to buy... according to my system
I hold for... years
I invest with... <£1m
Diversification is ... essential to reduce risk
Like others here, start with a stocko screen to some extent based on the core SRs. Then prune: SIPP I do not buy : 'jam tomorrow' stocks, loss making companies, companies in dying industries, companies whose products are easily substituted ISA I do not buy : companies in dying industries, companies whose products are easily substituted Internationalist in the long term: Well run countries will outperform - the us/sweden/(and yes) the uk/most of the EU Badly run countries will eventually fail - china/parts of s.america, africa/russia, italy Admit that the SRs are backward looking so they are not a 'magic bullet', so before doing anything, need to look wider. Struggling with timing exits. Made early mistakes selling at/near lows. Currently considering just not selling.

Andrewdb's Latest Blogs

Index data is available from many places (including Stocko) I am in the habit of recording the FT all share index, yield on the index and the cover on a weekly basis - have been doing this since 2008. This used to be available from the FT ( but now it seems I have to become a paid subscriber to access the data. Hopefully the…

Just read the Article in the register about Redcentric (LON:RCN)I had a small holding - that is worth 60% less than it was last friday.What do I do now?Personally I think it is too late and so will sit tight and see what happens next.Wondered what others thought.

Had a small holding since '11. Not really paid attention to it as it seemed to be doing just fine by itself. Noticed sp has been fairly sideways since March '15.IC said 'Buy' on 15/06 as the property portfolio has grown and noted it trades on a premium to NAV.My calculation of NAV :-(Accs 31/12/14) Net debt 448m, Long term investments 1284m(RNS 1 April) "At…

Andrewdb's Latest Comments

You need to be careful about high quality / value and low momentum stocks (=contrarian) CPI is a case in point.

There is an interesting 'hump' in the SR from about late sep 17 to Feb 18.As a subscriber you do get access to historic SR on a monthly basisDateQVMSR2 Sep 17526752587 Oct 177489428111 Nov 17769125742 Dec 17779218706 Jan 18609411574 Feb 186197654(all errors are mine)You can see M fall, V rise - i.e. the SP is collapsing and the PER is ~3Nick has collected the historic…

Not going under, but I wouldn't be a shareholder not least as they are not in a growing or friendly market. looking at the stocko financial data, this co has negative ~-680m of assets. The new CEO shows promise, but it will take some years before the company turns round not least as simply dumping non-profit making areas (at firesale prices) wont help and the…

Thanks Must say I did not expect that much uniformity when I asked the question. That was because I expected value and quality to be inversely linked to some extent. (i.e. high quality companies tend to be expensive -> low value score, and high value companies tend to be low quality) But if anything there is a slight bulge top right that indicates good value…

Thanks - so you have been gathering data for ~800 stocks once a fortnight for some time now to get 16700 samples. If there really is a proper effect there (like you said, not a big sample), my personal guess is that humans tend to hunt for outliers and so tend to look in the top/bottom 10-20%, we tend to ignore 'boring' things (like value…

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