Registered:
29/07/14
Seen:
12:44am
Followers:
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Comments
127

Occupation: Analyst, Consultant, Private Investor

Interests: Economics, European Markets, Stocks, US Market

Fantasy Fund: Andrewdb's Fund 1

About Me:

Day job

started as an actuarial student because it started with 'a' turned programmer turned admin consultant turned systems consultant/project manager/ whatever clients are happy to pay for.

Always liked topology/numeric analysis. Did 2/3 msc in AI. Moved house.

Grow vines to make bad wine.

Lately been interested in SVMs/ NNets, but not seen the amazing results quoted in my attempts.


Investment Strategy
I trade... a few times per year
I tend to buy... according to my system
I hold for... years
I invest with... <£1m
Diversification is ... essential to reduce risk
Like others here, start with a stocko screen to some extent based on the core SRs. Then prune: SIPP I do not buy : 'jam tomorrow' stocks, loss making companies, companies in dying industries, companies whose products are easily substituted ISA I do not buy : companies in dying industries, companies whose products are easily substituted Internationalist in the long term: Well run countries will outperform - the us/sweden/(and yes) the uk/most of the EU Badly run countries will eventually fail - china/parts of s.america, africa/russia, italy Admit that the SRs are backward looking so they are not a 'magic bullet', so before doing anything, need to look wider. Struggling with timing exits. Made early mistakes selling at/near lows. Currently considering just not selling.


Andrewdb's Latest Blogs

Index data is available from many places (including Stocko) I am in the habit of recording the FT all share index, yield on the index and the cover on a weekly basis - have been doing this since 2008. This used to be available from the FT (https://markets.ft.com/data/dataarchive) but now it seems I have to become a paid subscriber to access the data. Hopefully the…

Just read the Article in the register about Redcentric (LON:RCN)I had a small holding - that is worth 60% less than it was last friday.What do I do now?Personally I think it is too late and so will sit tight and see what happens next.Wondered what others thought.

Had a small holding since '11. Not really paid attention to it as it seemed to be doing just fine by itself. Noticed sp has been fairly sideways since March '15.IC said 'Buy' on 15/06 as the property portfolio has grown and noted it trades on a premium to NAV.My calculation of NAV :-(Accs 31/12/14) Net debt 448m, Long term investments 1284m(RNS 1 April) "At…



Andrewdb's Latest Comments

The economist agrees with you https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/07/26/bond-yields-reliably-predict-recessions.-why Part of the first paragraph: ... what it lacks in panache, the inverted yield curve more than makes up for in predictive potency. Just before each of America’s most recent three recessions the yield curve for government bonds “inverted”, meaning that yields on long-term bonds fell below those on short-term bonds. ...

... so are you taking these individual rules and then optimising a combination of them for selecting a set of ~N stocks that have the best performance over the last 12 months ... and then seeing what actually happens over the next 12 months ?

I remember your article on value rank showing that a very high score by itself did not correlate with future outperformance. I.e. if a stock is v.v.v. cheap, that is usually for a reason. There are studies rhat show momentum effects tend to persist, but, i would have thought in the same way as value, very high momentum ( say momentum rank over 90) is…

You do not include dividends. All things being equal, doesn't that mean the income screen will always underperform?

good guys do come first eventually. I learn a little every time you write. Thanks


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