Tue 7:49am


Occupation: Analyst, Broker, Company Director, Entrepreneur

Twitter: bruce_packard

About Me:

former banks analyst, and also, analyst of former banks. Buy and hold investor, but just started playing around with CFDs. And writing a blog.

Investment Strategy
I trade... a few times per year
I tend to buy... after much research
I hold for... years
I invest with... <£100k
Diversification is ... dead
I like to buy stocks that are obviously wrong price. IE Really bombed out. They can turn out to be the wrong price for a good reason (eg Cosalt I lost money on because they discovered a fraud). But if I hope to get more right than wrong. The last few years have been a very helpful environment for this strategy - but I'm struggling to find stuff I like these days, and may change strategy (either pay more for quality or just sit on cash).


Brucepackard's Latest Blogs

Below is the text of a 3 minute "stock slam" I did on Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) at a CFA meet up a few months ago.  I own it. Just thought I would share it because other people seem to be interested in this stock. Do Your Own Research obviously. Also, the valuation multiples, price of Lonmin are out of date, but doesn't effect the basic…

I have had a look through previous posts and no one seems to have asked this before: I'm interested in a source of historic prices for AIM and small cap stocks, to download into excel. I want to backtest some strategies and hunches, to improve my timing and risk management. And also to test the extreme tails in the distribution - ie companies that do…

I just got around to publishing this on Fever-Tree. The success seems so obvious retrospect. But the broader point is that the way economists think about "barriers to entry" is wrong. What are the barriers to entry in films? or in forming a band? In economic theory, it should not be possible for anyone in an industry which has no barriers to to make…

I have several mates who are fund managers. And at the moment the Pearson investment case really divides informed opinion. So I wrote this blog post, trying to marshal my thoughts, about when companies are undergoing rapid change caused by changes in technology. My thesis is that technology does not always improve the business model, in some ways it can makes things worse. Interested in…

Latest blog post, on "unethical" investing versus environmentally friendly frauds. And a couple of simple heuristics for avoiding both from a conversation with Gerd Gigarenzer.

Brucepackard's Latest Comments

What's wrong with "very simple heuristics" when making decisions? There's a lot of work by Gerd Gigarenzer suggesting simple rules of thumb are both rational and perform better than complicated models. Particularly, the more uncertain the environment, the more likely simple heuristics will do better than complicated models. Obviously if you are an academic who has to publish papers, complexity is an advantage. But Harry…

Mission Marketing (LON:TMMG) i am writing this on my really slow tablet so may give up! Actually look good : all numbers from continuing operations Revenue +13% £77.6m Headline PBT + 25% to £9m Reported PBT +41% to £7.5m DPS +24% to 2.1p Talks about growing revenue c. 5% a year and improving margins from 12% now to 14% Paying down bank debt, no longer…

Morning - I'm going to have a look at Mission Marketing (LON:TMMG) results. Share price up +6% issuing shares (at current price) to pay for earn out obligations both RJW and Krow Communications. Interestingly 65p is the trigger for managements "growth" incentive scheme. I'm a bit grumpy about this scheme, which seems to me rather unhealthily in favour of management at the expense of long…

Just to say Air Partner (LON:AIR) which had accounting problems has been OK. But yes, generally agree with your "Sell on the first hint of trouble" heuristic.

Lonmin (LON:LMI) as a superstock?  Really?  It's only ranked high on the momentum because it looks like the Sibanye deal will actually complete - which was rather doubtful for a while. Take a look at the 5 year chart instead.  

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