Registered:
12/06/14
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Occupation: Analyst, Broker, Company Director, Entrepreneur

Twitter: bruce_packard

About Me:

former banks analyst, and also, analyst of former banks. Buy and hold investor, but just started playing around with CFDs. And writing a blog.

http://brucepackard.com/


Investment Strategy
I trade... a few times per year
I tend to buy... after much research
I hold for... years
I invest with... <£100k
Diversification is ... dead
I like to buy stocks that are obviously wrong price. IE Really bombed out. They can turn out to be the wrong price for a good reason (eg Cosalt I lost money on because they discovered a fraud). But if I hope to get more right than wrong. The last few years have been a very helpful environment for this strategy - but I'm struggling to find stuff I like these days, and may change strategy (either pay more for quality or just sit on cash).

Blog



Brucepackard's Latest Blogs

See link to Muddy Waters short seller report. Burford short I've held Burford all the way up from 180p, and think they've picked the wrong target. For instance Burford just announced that it has over $400 million of cash and cash equivalents on hand as of 5 August 2019.  Carson Block seems like a sound guy, very knowledge-able. Also Muddy Waters were very good at…

Below is the text of a 3 minute "stock slam" I did on Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) at a CFA meet up a few months ago.  I own it. Just thought I would share it because other people seem to be interested in this stock. Do Your Own Research obviously. Also, the valuation multiples, price of Lonmin are out of date, but doesn't effect the basic…

I have had a look through previous posts and no one seems to have asked this before: I'm interested in a source of historic prices for AIM and small cap stocks, to download into excel. I want to backtest some strategies and hunches, to improve my timing and risk management. And also to test the extreme tails in the distribution - ie companies that do…

I just got around to publishing this on Fever-Tree. http://brucepackard.com/my-fever-tree-story/ The success seems so obvious retrospect. But the broader point is that the way economists think about "barriers to entry" is wrong. What are the barriers to entry in films? or in forming a band? In economic theory, it should not be possible for anyone in an industry which has no barriers to to make…

I have several mates who are fund managers. And at the moment the Pearson investment case really divides informed opinion. So I wrote this blog post, trying to marshal my thoughts, about when companies are undergoing rapid change caused by changes in technology. My thesis is that technology does not always improve the business model, in some ways it can makes things worse. Interested in…



Brucepackard's Latest Comments

Ha ha ha.  Great spot.  I knew about the company's Growth Share Scheme, and didn't like it because they're issuing 5.7m Ordinary Shares to management based on the share price being above 75p.  It did make me wonder how much I could trust management. And now they have left out the number of shares in the EPS calculation this year ??? :-)

Yep - I'm interested in £TMMG too.  Been a multi bagger, but nervous about the exposure to cut back in marketing spend when there's a downturn.   Stockranks  are giving many cyclical stocks a high rating at the moment, so useful to know thoughts on when to sell high stock rank firms.

On Thomas Cook read across...I notice that £AIR is up +6% today.  They do aircraft chartering - so perhaps not a coincidence.  Air Partner could benefiting from Government, CAA, etc,  hiring large numbers of charter planes to repatriate massive numbers of stranded holidaymakers.    I hold £AIR :-)Now back to reading 50 pages on £BUR Fair Value accounting!

Just out of interest - are all these results for end of June ?  Or are there other companies like  £FCCN who have a July reporting date?  I've long believed that "bad numbers take longer to add up" - the fact that £LOOP and £QXT have taken so long to add up their numbers from a June end reporting date might have been a warning…

Great spot on £LTG "ahead of expectations" - I've looked at it before and been put off by the valuation.  Now I'm even more cautious because of the way management communicate to shareholders.  #neverjustonecockroach 

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