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12/06/14
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Occupation: Analyst, Broker, Company Director, Entrepreneur

Twitter: bruce_packard

About Me:

former banks analyst, and also, analyst of former banks. Buy and hold investor, but just started playing around with CFDs. And writing a blog.

http://brucepackard.com/


Investment Strategy
I trade... a few times per year
I tend to buy... after much research
I hold for... years
I invest with... <£100k
Diversification is ... dead
I like to buy stocks that are obviously wrong price. IE Really bombed out. They can turn out to be the wrong price for a good reason (eg Cosalt I lost money on because they discovered a fraud). But if I hope to get more right than wrong. The last few years have been a very helpful environment for this strategy - but I'm struggling to find stuff I like these days, and may change strategy (either pay more for quality or just sit on cash).

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Brucepackard's Latest Blogs

See link to Muddy Waters short seller report. Burford short I've held Burford all the way up from 180p, and think they've picked the wrong target. For instance Burford just announced that it has over $400 million of cash and cash equivalents on hand as of 5 August 2019.  Carson Block seems like a sound guy, very knowledge-able. Also Muddy Waters were very good at…

Below is the text of a 3 minute "stock slam" I did on Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) at a CFA meet up a few months ago.  I own it. Just thought I would share it because other people seem to be interested in this stock. Do Your Own Research obviously. Also, the valuation multiples, price of Lonmin are out of date, but doesn't effect the basic…

I have had a look through previous posts and no one seems to have asked this before: I'm interested in a source of historic prices for AIM and small cap stocks, to download into excel. I want to backtest some strategies and hunches, to improve my timing and risk management. And also to test the extreme tails in the distribution - ie companies that do…

I just got around to publishing this on Fever-Tree. http://brucepackard.com/my-fever-tree-story/ The success seems so obvious retrospect. But the broader point is that the way economists think about "barriers to entry" is wrong. What are the barriers to entry in films? or in forming a band? In economic theory, it should not be possible for anyone in an industry which has no barriers to to make…

I have several mates who are fund managers. And at the moment the Pearson investment case really divides informed opinion. So I wrote this blog post, trying to marshal my thoughts, about when companies are undergoing rapid change caused by changes in technology. My thesis is that technology does not always improve the business model, in some ways it can makes things worse. Interested in…



Brucepackard's Latest Comments

Just thought I'd leave this comment from Burford management.  Obviously you don't have to believe management, but at first glance looks like a good response to the issue your raise : "Burford also devoted considerable time at its Capital Markets Day in November 2018 on its approach to cash management and capital structure and showed that Burford at that point could be self-financing, without any…

In your first sentence you say that you have no clue what operational cash needs Burford would have if it took on no new cases. In your last sentence you say that Burford needs external capital to fund its operational needs. Do you think those 2 sentences are consistent? because I don't they are.

No - you are making the assumption that if Burford had not raised capital, management would have taken on exactly the same number of cases, and gone to the bank and asked for money to fund these cases. I think that is an unrealistic assumption. In my view, it would be more realistic to credit Burford management with some flexibility. If they had not been…

No. You're assuming that management have to take on cases.  They don't - it's like assuming banks have to grow their loan book.  They don't. 

Disagree.  When they raise capital it is to fund cases.  If they don't raise capital, doesn't mean that they'd be overdrawn, it would just constrain the number of cases that they take on.  It's a debate about whether growth should always be self financing.  NB we're not disagreeing about the facts (eg the numbers you state from the Annual Report are correct) we're disagreeing about…

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