Occupation: Analyst, Broker, Company Director, Entrepreneur

Twitter: bruce_packard

About Me:

former banks analyst, and also, analyst of former banks. Buy and hold investor, but just started playing around with CFDs. And writing a blog.

Investment Strategy
I trade... a few times per year
I tend to buy... after much research
I hold for... years
I invest with... <£100k
Diversification is ... dead
I like to buy stocks that are obviously wrong price. IE Really bombed out. They can turn out to be the wrong price for a good reason (eg Cosalt I lost money on because they discovered a fraud). But if I hope to get more right than wrong. The last few years have been a very helpful environment for this strategy - but I'm struggling to find stuff I like these days, and may change strategy (either pay more for quality or just sit on cash).


Brucepackard's Latest Blogs

Below is the text of a 3 minute "stock slam" I did on Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) at a CFA meet up a few months ago.  I own it. Just thought I would share it because other people seem to be interested in this stock. Do Your Own Research obviously. Also, the valuation multiples, price of Lonmin are out of date, but doesn't effect the basic…

I have had a look through previous posts and no one seems to have asked this before: I'm interested in a source of historic prices for AIM and small cap stocks, to download into excel. I want to backtest some strategies and hunches, to improve my timing and risk management. And also to test the extreme tails in the distribution - ie companies that do…

I just got around to publishing this on Fever-Tree. The success seems so obvious retrospect. But the broader point is that the way economists think about "barriers to entry" is wrong. What are the barriers to entry in films? or in forming a band? In economic theory, it should not be possible for anyone in an industry which has no barriers to to make…

I have several mates who are fund managers. And at the moment the Pearson investment case really divides informed opinion. So I wrote this blog post, trying to marshal my thoughts, about when companies are undergoing rapid change caused by changes in technology. My thesis is that technology does not always improve the business model, in some ways it can makes things worse. Interested in…

Latest blog post, on "unethical" investing versus environmentally friendly frauds. And a couple of simple heuristics for avoiding both from a conversation with Gerd Gigarenzer.

Brucepackard's Latest Comments

Hi, I'm interested in ULS Technology (LON:ULS) - the one thing that doesn't quite make sense to me is that they have paid a £2,934,000 earnout in July 2018. AND another earnout of £2,337,000 for the same acquisition is going to be paid in July this year. But the outlook statement talks about a difficult market, and the group underlying profits and revenue are down…

Thanks for sharing these. I couldn't attend and appreciate being able to watch the videos. For What It's Worth I would have been interested in both Water Intelligence (LON:WATR) and Scientific Digital Imaging (LON:SDI) too!

I know that it's a bit big, and the trading statement doesn't say much. But interested in your thoughts on PZ Cussons (LON:PZC)'s struggled in recent years. My thesis was that it ought to be a mini Unilever (LON:ULVR) - but performance has diverged massively in the last 10 years.

Your reading is correct. They recognised most of the gain when they sold ( $87 million of income ($100 million of the sale price less Burford's $13 million investment)) Fair enough if you don't like the accounting. If things had gone against them after the sale, then they would have had to write (some of?) that back down. I've been thinking for a while that…

Thanks for your opinion. Do you have any evidence to support your assertion that you "think things have moved on" from Cowan v Scargill (1984) ? Or is that just your opinion?

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