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Real Name: Mark Simpson

Location: UK

Twitter: @DangerCapital

Fantasy Fund: Cheap Quality Companies

About Me:

Investing from the eye of the storm

Dangersimpson's Latest Blogs

Markets have been turbulent following the unexpected vote to leave the EU. And rightfully so - economic growth is based on the confidence to invest in property, plant, equipment or research and development now in order to generate profits in the future. If those investments are deferred or not made then that growth does not materialise. Spending will also be deferred by consumers uncertain about…

Avanti is communications company operating satellites. Currently they have 4 operational (ARTEMIS, HYLAS 1, HYLAS 2, HYLAS 2-B) with plans to launch 2 more in 2017 (HYLAS 3 & HYLAS 4).They have been heavily loss making so far but promise rapid growth that will deliver profitability to the company in the future:‘…management expects cash generation to grow swiftly as revenues exceed Avanti's largely fixed cost…

Thought I’d do a brief write up of the sessions I attended on Friday & Saturday at Mello 2014. These are based on the bullet point notes I made at the time which were the things that stood out to me rather than an attempt to capture the full nature of each talk. Summary & opinions of course are mine not the speakers. Looking back…

Dangersimpson's Latest Comments

Saying you are certain of something is always a dangerous thing in investing! That said certain valuations do look very toppy - particularly in the US market & large cap growth. Effective ways to reduce draw-downs are: 1. As already mentioned trend following. There is a reason that this is not always effective and it is the psychological cost of implementation. There will be time…

The problem with these sort of businesses is that the staff end up taking the lions share of the returns. You can see this with Harvey Nash (LON:HVN) as they have generated good top line growth yet this hasn't appeared consistently in the bottom line. However there are signs that this might be changing with Harvey Nash (LON:HVN). DBAY Advisors picked up 26% in the…

Re: Telit Communications (LON:TCM) Net debt goes from $9.3m on 30th June to $30.2m so a cash outflow of $19.9m for H2 & $50m for the full year. Normally in H2 they are FCF positive as this is seasonally their stronger half & working capital flows have historically been positive. So it seems that both gross margins are weaker (which makes sense since they were…

Scientific Digital Imaging (LON:SDI) looks like a distressed seller. Placed directly with others via broker since bid-ask both still above the deal price. Re: Marshall Motor Holdings (LON:MMH) remember to factor in the pro-forma effect of the sales of Marshall leasing into any analysis so that the company will report minimal net debt at 31st December vs £101m at 30th June. I expect the Stockopedia…

Looking down the list of insti holders throws up some of the ones that reassure (e.g. Miton) but other reliables like BlackRock and Old Mutual are notable by their absence. And even Gervaise Williams gets it wrong sometimes. I asked Gervaise about his holding in Quindell at Mello 2014 & issues with poorer quality NOMADS. His answer was along the lines of having a very…

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