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Real Name: Mark Simpson

Location: UK

Twitter: @DangerCapital

Fantasy Fund: Cheap Quality Companies

About Me:

Investing from the eye of the storm




Dangersimpson's Latest Blogs

Markets have been turbulent following the unexpected vote to leave the EU. And rightfully so - economic growth is based on the confidence to invest in property, plant, equipment or research and development now in order to generate profits in the future. If those investments are deferred or not made then that growth does not materialise. Spending will also be deferred by consumers uncertain about…

Avanti is communications company operating satellites. Currently they have 4 operational (ARTEMIS, HYLAS 1, HYLAS 2, HYLAS 2-B) with plans to launch 2 more in 2017 (HYLAS 3 & HYLAS 4).They have been heavily loss making so far but promise rapid growth that will deliver profitability to the company in the future:‘…management expects cash generation to grow swiftly as revenues exceed Avanti's largely fixed cost…

Thought I’d do a brief write up of the sessions I attended on Friday & Saturday at Mello 2014. These are based on the bullet point notes I made at the time which were the things that stood out to me rather than an attempt to capture the full nature of each talk. Summary & opinions of course are mine not the speakers. Looking back…



Dangersimpson's Latest Comments

A really useful exercise. 10% would seem to be quite a tight stop loss on such an illiquid share though? the spread alone could be 5% and 10-20% daily noise on small caps.

Good summary Leo, One minor point, I don't think the revenue decline will be as bad from Debenhams store closures. I think Debenhams are planning to close 40 stores, although this could change in the future. At the moment QUIZ (LON:QUIZ) are in about 2/3rds of Debenhams stores, so if they are in a similar proportion of the closures, this would be 0.66 x 40…

Hi Graham, Re: Creightons (LON:CRL), Swallowfield (LON:SWL), £W7L - I see what you mean about the sector being much of a muchness. I have a small holding in £W7L, and shares in Gresham House Strategic (LON:GHS) who hold Swallowfield (LON:SWL). Probably ownership bias but I see a couple of reasons to prefer £W7L to Creightons (LON:CRL): - Safety in a sector facing headwinds. W7L has…

Wes Gray & Toby Carlisle wrote a book called Quantitive Value where they analysed the Magic Formula in detail. They found that all of the excess return was due to the cheapness metric - earnings yield. The quality metric actually reduced the alpha. Here's Wes Gray talking about the book in more detail: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAtmJV1dPu0 So this explains why the Magic Formula hasn't performed that well…

Good point on the real cash/devt levels of a business. Personally I would like to see accounting standards force companies to declare their average net debt/cash over the accounting period and the highest net debt/lowest net cash position during the period. This would be very useful information to be able to assess the true investment case.

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