Registered:
28/03/18
Seen:
31st May
Followers:
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Comments
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Real Name: Karl De Jesus

Occupation: Academic

Interests: Bonds, Derivatives, Economics, Gold, Interest Rates, Oil, Stocks, US Market

About Me:

I am an academician and a have been a stock market student for decades. The author of And Then the Tempest - The Imminent Financial Meltdown is Real and What to do About it, I also write online investment articles and blogs out of my website, megabearmarket.com.


Investment Strategy
I trade... monthly
I tend to buy... according to my system
I invest in companies with strong fundamentals, according to my metrics, and use technical tools I have developed to make buy and sell decisions.

Blog

Megabearmarket.com is an investment blog website. I also promote my latest book, And Then the Tempest - The Imminent Financial Meltdown is Real and What to do About It, on it, and articles published under Karl De Jesus in ezinearticles.com.



Dejekarl's Latest Blogs

By Friday, May 10's close the S&P 500 Dive chart had reached a low only seen three times since January 2018 (see below). This took place February 5, 2018; October 10, 2018; and March 15, 2019. The first two ushered in sizable drops while the later was a minor wiggle on the way to the eventual high we saw May 1st. The first two instances,…

January 5, 2019 Having established the trend in Act Two, Part 1, let us now look at the detailed data behind the charts in that blog. One thing to keep in mind is that the market from 1962 to today was measured using S&P 500 data from Finance.Yahoo.com. This data has daily highs and lows so market tops and bottoms could be measured using intraday…

Mention bear markets and to many of us it conjures images of crashes such as the Black Monday Crash of October 1987 or its more famous cousin, the Black Tuesday Crash of 1927. The reality, however, is quite different. Major bear markets, those declining more than 28%, sneak up on us. I discussed as much in a previous blog[1] and it is illustrated by the…

July 15, 2018 (Updated July 18, 2018) As I previously reported[1], all major bear markets since the S&P 500’s inception always have a prelude – a substantial drop from an initial peak followed by a recovery to a second peak whereupon it drops in earnest. Spans between the first and second peak vary but the longest was 165 days, between March 5 and August 17,…

May 17, 2018 It is widely held that more than 80% of fund managers fail to outperform their benchmark. What is less known is that most private investors tend to also underperform. Stockopedia’s own Ed Croft recently announced at the UK Investor show that a study of 78,000 U.S. brokerage accounts revealed the average investors underperformed the market by 3.7%. This is not an isolated…



Dejekarl's Latest Comments

Thanks, Aflash. That sounds like an interesting read. I would be relieved to find a drop of 35-50%. Sadly, my own research indicates at least 50% although lower would sure be better.

Thanks Velo. That is an excellent point. I thought of stopping short of making the suggestion. Should have. I have edited the last sentence to reflect your suggestion.

Fascinating, Taff6! A lot to digest so let me send you the reference for the 46-50 cohort in the meantime.The population data comes from: U.S. Census Bureau: Population Projections of United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995-2050; National Population by Characteristic Datasets, 2010- 2016; Population Projections of United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 2014-2060. The data I used ranges…

Taff6, I kept being intrigued by the uncanny correlation between Dow 1987 and today's so I did an overlay of closing prices. It follows. It took a year and a half for Dow 1987 to get back to its previous peak. So, if the correlation continues, it should be a long steady climb back up. On the other hand, if my thesis is correct, we…

Thanks for the informative reply, Taff6. The purpose of the article was to serve as a warning but, like you, my nature is optimistic, believe it or not. That is why I mentioned I was long to indicate I do see some upside. Nevertheless, since I am using history as a guide, that upside is limited from my interpretation of the historical script. The demographic…

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