Wed 1:30pm


Occupation: Company Director, Entrepreneur, Private Investor

Interests: Economics, Interest Rates, Stocks

Fantasy Fund: Top 10

About Me:

Interested in empirically proven factors that increase the probability of choosing winning stocks.

Investment Strategy
I trade... constantly
I tend to buy... according to my system
I hold for... a few months
Diversification is ... essential to reduce risk
I like very liquid stocks with a small bid offer spread, preferably with a dividend and an improving momentum rank. Ideally with a decent balance sheet. Not hunting out multi-baggers, more looking to avoid capital loss whilst picking up the dividends. Basically very boring stuff.

Dfs12's Latest Blogs

I'm always on the lookout for turning points in the market, even though I know it's tricky, and most people get it wrong - therefore should not try (me included). However, I've been lucky enough to duck some of the biggest drops in the last 18 years by reducing shares held when it looks like there are storms ahead. So I can't help but consider…

I have held an account with Barclays Stockbrokers for nearly 20 years. And generally I've found the system and service pretty good. Barclays have decided to move everyone onto a new platform "Smart Investor". I'm no spring chicken and I've been involved in a lot of software projects over the years - but my oh my... what a mess. Stacks of people can't log in…

I'm always looking for hints to determine where we are in the cycle of share price swings. Are we in bargain basement territory with lots of beaten up shares (that we should be buying)? Or are we in the land of irrational exuberance with overpriced stocks (that we should be selling)? It's not usually a clear cut process and many people would say that you're…

Dfs12's Latest Comments

I like the idea of selecting high yielding shares - but taking the highest yielding stocks from each sector doesn't look like a diversification strategy to reduce risk. Rather than reduce risk it may ensure you cream off all the duff stocks with high debt and low dividend cover - the exact ones that are most likely to cut their dividends. It may well be…

Many thanks for all your hard work posting the monthly update figures Velo. It is great to see such fine detail on the progress of the Naps. I don't blame you for ducking out next year. Like you I'd love to find a stock picking system that creates a positive return regardless of the market conditions. But I reckon that is a pretty tall order…

Adding a bit of detail to Costain (LON:COST). More attractive that it might first appear (in my opinion). Costain (LON:COST) are moving away from being a small margin contractor into a specialised "smart infrastructure business". Sounds like PR speak - but they are already a big player and the potential market is massive. They have completed smart motorway projects and others are in progress and…

I can't see anything suggesting that Brexit is having any short term influence over our markets at all. Just look at all the markets in the world. They are all down in unison and by pretty much the same order of magnitude. Either Brexit is driving the whole world or it has been priced in long ago (or it's viewed as largely irrelevant). My money…

Fabulous work Velo. Thanks so much for all your time on these monthly updates this year. You've provided a fantastic running commentary on the Naps portfolio. Fitting that the last month should underline the value of dividends so strongly.

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