Registered:
13/09/13
Seen:
6 mins ago
Followers:
14

Comments
309

Occupation: Analyst, Blogger, Company Director, Consultant, Entrepreneur, Private Investor, Trader

Interests: Commodities, Economics, Funds, Hedge Funds, Stocks, US Market

Location: South Devon

Twitter: @runningprofits

About Me:

I trade and invest for a living and have done so for almost 9 years . I  design and build models that incorporate trading rules and risk management and are  powered by  a variety of data sources. ( increasingly using data visualisation to facilitate analysis and spot opportunities).These produce prospects  that I qualify further and then resolve into different time horizons with different capital allocations. From leveraged short-term income-generating trades, through swing trades with medium horizons to longer term wealth-creating investments in tax efficient wrappers.  I mainly trade shares though occasionally commodities and indices as hedges.  I have read hundreds of books done thousands of webinars  made countless mistakes and have learnt (and continue to learn) by doing . I have developed deep expertise in ShareScope and have  used the Pro  version for  8 years developing  my own studies and scripts. My workflows are encoded into ShareScope so I follow my processes and rules. I have become a keen student of behavioural psychology and cognitive biases.

I have developed detailed workflows, checklists and structured ways of working to enforce my discipline and preserve and grow my capital. I have learned to care less about my various portfolio performances and more about the shape and slope of my total equity curve. I  have befriended losses and know when I am wrong.

I started learning about shares in the early 1990s when I joined a share club  through work. It was pretty random but a good learning experience. We lost money with great diligence supported by good research
Been at it every since, survived dot.com , several cycles and the GFC. I've been trading and investing with my own capital fulltime for the past 9 years: my life before below . I enjoy analysis, love data, have a passion for technology and I have become increasingly drawn by trading . I am now more of a trader than an investor, it suits my personality. 

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I originally trained as a scientist with a doctorate in Physical Chemisty: international research with big lasers, accelerators and super computers while studying CFCs which were destroying the ozone layer. We did the research that allowed ICI to tell Maggie to go ban them.....Did my bit for the planet and produced some good predictive computational  models based on experimental data.

I then went working on Tea for Unilever, that was a shocker for my mum. Worked as a Lead scientist in the big blue U then into product innovation then Innovation Management before roles starting things up including a global marketing information centre supported by a great IT team - we accidentally started Unilever's first global intranet in '96. That got the attention of the CIO and I went to work on strategy and technology at Head Office as part of his team. I  then cherry-picked my dream job: starting a Global Digital Futures Lab in North America for a few years. Spent a lot of time in the Valley and with the boffins at MIT and Stanford as we worked jointly at developing the early internet of things using RFID chips ... back in 2001. We worked like an incubator, attracting funding from Unilever's Op Cos to develop pilots and projects for adoption and scale-up.  Dot.bomb kinda ruined the funding in 2003 so I came back to Blighty and got led astray by Transformation Consulting with Electronic Data Systems: re designing business processes using technology.  That was acquired by Hewlett Packard and eventually I had my fill of leadership roles in complex organisations that were hell bent on making themselves more complex by repeatedly reorganising .. as well as the endless travel and the skulduggery.
Took a leap in my early 40s, started trading and investing with more earnest : found it really hard so I kept at it, now I love it and only occasionally miss the exec lounges.

 I now live with Janice in Devon near the sea: I run, swim, cycle, kayak and went though  a period of intense "triathloning"  but having completed three full Ironman distance races and about 15 half-Ironman races I think I have gotten it out of my system. I don't do more than marathons these days and prefer trail running on the south Devon's coast with a great bunch of friends who live locally.


Investment Strategy
I trade... constantly
I tend to buy... according to my system
I hold for... a few months
. I design and build models that incorporate trading rules and risk management and are powered by a variety of data sources. ( increasingly using data visualisation to facilitate analysis and spot opportunities).These produce prospects that I qualify further and then resolve into different time horizons with different capital allocations. From leveraged short-term income-generating trades, through swing trades with medium horizons to longer term wealth-creating investments in tax efficient wrappers. I mainly trade shares though occasionally commodities and indices as hedges

Website

runprofits.com is a tactical traders toolkit focused on the UK markets that uses data visualisation to facilitate the analysis of a suite of data services including- short interest- market sentiment dashboard- sectors and share analysis across the FTSE 250, 350 and AIM- aggregates earnings calendars and news sources- produces daily reports and bulletins including opening gaps studies of the market reaction to RNS announcements- periodic analysis and review articles- a daily analysis of UK market action after the close

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Dscollard's Latest Blogs

Topline 408 IPOs from 2011 to 2019 were analysed quantitatively: the median return was -17% with a 60:40 split of losers to winners over the time period. This fits with published academic studies of IPO performance of -8 to -23% . A deeper analysis of the numbers gives more insight on opportunities and the role of stop losses in converting trades into very profitable investments…



Dscollard's Latest Comments

I have a number of data mining tools at my disposa,l so would be happy to have a look at what conclusions could be tentatively drawn from the 130 if you have a list of names and/or epics?Thanks, very kind offer Gromley but I am ok to run them, maybe over the weekend: this has been a bit of a side project that grew organically…

No doubt the delisted companies do have an impact on the overall results @timarr, I'll defer to your expertise on bias: my misunderstanding of survival bias was based on the exclusion of failures to improve the overall proportion of success: those delisting will do so both from failure and success so there is not a skew to either in terms of selection. Clearly it is…

Thanks, I intend to do a deeper dive on the big winners and characterise them in more detail I am not sure bias is the right phrase for those that delisted - skew maybe but bias suggests a cognitive effect. Given the sample size and duration that amount is probably "about right" statistically given going broke or getting bought out are also outcomes of an…

Chinese AIMs and sector analysis (resource stocks)? Appended to the full article - see below Appendix: A note on Sectors, CountriesThe total universe of 408 was analysed by sector, country and market as were the winners and losers to examine sector and country over/under-performance. Junior oilers and miners are fairly notorious for overpromising and under-delivering with sometimes spectacular losses. Many investors will shun companies from…

Thanks Gromley, as ever insightful remarksThe 3000 refer to IPOs and placings dating back to the 1990s: the universe was selected from 2011 to 2019 to avoid the GFC and its aftermath and to concentrate on our new ultra low interest rate world. The selection criteria was purely date based and had no bias as they were fully representative of that total period TBH  my …

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