Registered:
13/09/13
Seen:
Mon 4:22pm
Followers:
15

Comments
340

Occupation: Analyst, Blogger, Company Director, Consultant, Entrepreneur, Private Investor, Trader

Interests: Commodities, Economics, Funds, Hedge Funds, Stocks, US Market

Location: South Devon

Twitter: @runningprofits

About Me:

I trade and invest for a living and have done so for almost 9 years . I  design and build models that incorporate trading rules and risk management and are  powered by  a variety of data sources. ( increasingly using data visualisation to facilitate analysis and spot opportunities).These produce prospects  that I qualify further and then resolve into different time horizons with different capital allocations. From leveraged short-term income-generating trades, through swing trades with medium horizons to longer term wealth-creating investments in tax efficient wrappers.  I mainly trade shares though occasionally commodities and indices as hedges.  I have read hundreds of books done thousands of webinars  made countless mistakes and have learnt (and continue to learn) by doing . I have developed deep expertise in ShareScope and have  used the Pro  version for  8 years developing  my own studies and scripts. My workflows are encoded into ShareScope so I follow my processes and rules. I have become a keen student of behavioural psychology and cognitive biases.

I have developed detailed workflows, checklists and structured ways of working to enforce my discipline and preserve and grow my capital. I have learned to care less about my various portfolio performances and more about the shape and slope of my total equity curve. I  have befriended losses and know when I am wrong.

I started learning about shares in the early 1990s when I joined a share club  through work. It was pretty random but a good learning experience. We lost money with great diligence supported by good research
Been at it every since, survived dot.com , several cycles and the GFC. I've been trading and investing with my own capital fulltime for the past 9 years: my life before below . I enjoy analysis, love data, have a passion for technology and I have become increasingly drawn by trading . I am now more of a trader than an investor, it suits my personality. 

___________________________________________________________

I originally trained as a scientist with a doctorate in Physical Chemisty: international research with big lasers, accelerators and super computers while studying CFCs which were destroying the ozone layer. We did the research that allowed ICI to tell Maggie to go ban them.....Did my bit for the planet and produced some good predictive computational  models based on experimental data.

I then went working on Tea for Unilever, that was a shocker for my mum. Worked as a Lead scientist in the big blue U then into product innovation then Innovation Management before roles starting things up including a global marketing information centre supported by a great IT team - we accidentally started Unilever's first global intranet in '96. That got the attention of the CIO and I went to work on strategy and technology at Head Office as part of his team. I  then cherry-picked my dream job: starting a Global Digital Futures Lab in North America for a few years. Spent a lot of time in the Valley and with the boffins at MIT and Stanford as we worked jointly at developing the early internet of things using RFID chips ... back in 2001. We worked like an incubator, attracting funding from Unilever's Op Cos to develop pilots and projects for adoption and scale-up.  Dot.bomb kinda ruined the funding in 2003 so I came back to Blighty and got led astray by Transformation Consulting with Electronic Data Systems: re designing business processes using technology.  That was acquired by Hewlett Packard and eventually I had my fill of leadership roles in complex organisations that were hell bent on making themselves more complex by repeatedly reorganising .. as well as the endless travel and the skulduggery.
Took a leap in my early 40s, started trading and investing with more earnest : found it really hard so I kept at it, now I love it and only occasionally miss the exec lounges.

 I now live with Janice in Devon near the sea: I run, swim, cycle, kayak and went though  a period of intense "triathloning"  but having completed three full Ironman distance races and about 15 half-Ironman races I think I have gotten it out of my system. I don't do more than marathons these days and prefer trail running on the south Devon's coast with a great bunch of friends who live locally.


Investment Strategy
I trade... constantly
I tend to buy... according to my system
I hold for... a few months
. I design and build models that incorporate trading rules and risk management and are powered by a variety of data sources. ( increasingly using data visualisation to facilitate analysis and spot opportunities).These produce prospects that I qualify further and then resolve into different time horizons with different capital allocations. From leveraged short-term income-generating trades, through swing trades with medium horizons to longer term wealth-creating investments in tax efficient wrappers. I mainly trade shares though occasionally commodities and indices as hedges

Website

runprofits.com is a tactical traders toolkit focused on the UK markets that uses data visualisation to facilitate the analysis of a suite of data services including- short interest- market sentiment dashboard- sectors and share analysis across the FTSE 250, 350 and AIM- aggregates earnings calendars and news sources- produces daily reports and bulletins including opening gaps studies of the market reaction to RNS announcements- periodic analysis and review articles- a daily analysis of UK market action after the close

Find out More »


Dscollard's Latest Blogs

Summary of Part 1 and Part 2 From a quantitative analysis of 541 IPOs floated on the UK market between 2011 and early 2019, the data shows the following: 67% have lost money to date with a median loss of -57%: over 10% delisted with a total loss 33% were in profit: with a median return of 60% 8.5%  (46) were bought-out where 60%  returned…

Update July 2019: Part 2 of this Series is now available covering the addtional 133 IPO placings Topline  408 IPOs from 2011 to 2019 were analysed quantitatively: the median return was -17% with a 60:40 split of losers to winners over the time period. This fits with published academic studies of IPO performance of -8 to -23% . A deeper analysis of the numbers gives…



Dscollard's Latest Comments

Plot below shows the sector shift over the past week and month: big shifts away from the cyclicals so O&G and Mining getting caned along with Banks. O&G Services suffer the most by extension of their their dependence on oilers. By contrast, Health Care, Pharm, Tobacco outperforming (relatively)Big shift to defensives and recession-like allocations

worth noting that UK has retraced more than half the gains from the December '18 lows on the FTSE 100 and 250 despite GBP/USD around $1.20 for the past week or so effectively putting names in these indices on an even bigger discount in "hard" currency. The 2019 high is still below the 2018 Aug high so year on year all of the UK indices…

Tim your unequivocable quip made me genuinely laugh out loud. Pithy!In the spirit of Sun Tzu: know thine enemy

nick it didn't offend, I take a lot of care in my analysis: it's reputational.No hard feelings, just good objective bashing of fact

Would you be surprised to learn that on 2019-08-07 the "true" volume (shown on your graph as being about 30M) was in fact only about 6M?There were a large number of CANC trades - which all get included in plots like the one you have shown. In particular at 13:46:03 on 2019-08-07 there was a 5M order which was immediately cancelled. It is then counted…

dscollard's Top Awards 4


dscollard Followers

dscollard has 15 followers including:


and 7 more.
Let’s get you setup so you get the most out of our service
Done, Let's add some stocks
Brilliant - You've created a folio! Now let's add some stocks to it.

  • Apple (AAPL)

  • Shell (RDSA)

  • Twitter (TWTR)

  • Volkswagon AG (VOK)

  • McDonalds (MCD)

  • Vodafone (VOD)

  • Barratt Homes (BDEV)

  • Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Tesco (TSCO)
Save and show me my analysis