10th Mar '17


Occupation: Company Director, Consultant, Market Professional, Private Investor

Interests: Asian Markets, Bonds, Commodities, Derivatives, Economics, Emerging Markets, European Markets, Forex, Funds, Geopolitics, Hedge Funds, Interest Rates, International Stocks, Oil, Private Equity, Stocks

About Me:

I spent 20 years working in and around the City, before becoming fully-focused on investment on my own account. I've always paid most attention to "big picture" issues and LTBH investments rather than trading - which is why I am heavily focused on the oil sector (especially stocks which have positions that are attractive for strategically-driven M&A)

Investment Strategy

Top-down, strategic LTBH

Emptyend's Latest Blogs

Gillian Tett in the FT has a very interesting piece this morning. Briefly it is about the concern that liquidity in many emerging markets is illusory - and there is a severe risk of a sharp reversal at some point: money has rushed into emerging markets in recent years, this has created an image of abundant liquidity. But this image may be dangerously illusory,…

I happened to come across a chart that is extremely relevant to the following political hot potatoes in the UK: a) the fracking debate and b) Energy prices in the UK (and the wall-to-wall moaning about prices!) and c) Gas storage - lack of (and the UK Government's mistake in not encouraging more provision). This is the chart: (click the production chart icon) If…

Thanks to Alphaville's reporting of Merrill's research piece today, we now have a date for the publication of the interims - which is 29th August.Merrill also indicate their expectation that the planned distribution will be announced at the same time - and, frankly (after today's update), I can't see much likelihood of them wanting to publish the details of that any earlier ....and they've already…

I am not surprised in the slightest that Stephen Hester has refused to give the RBS Board (and, through them, the Government) the blank cheque of an open-ended commitment. That's what happens when you play fast and loose with peoples' expectations that the basis of one's pay will be maintained as originally agreed. RBS said on Wednesday Hester had been unable to make an open-ended…

Results here: The Directors are not recommending a payment of a dividend in respect of 2012 (2011 - nil). However, the Board expects to recommend a sustainable return of capital to shareholders during 2013, the level of which will be determined pending Hoang Long and Hoan Vu Joint Operating Companies' (HLHVJOC) approvals of a 2013 Work Programme and Budget for CNV and TGT and incorporating…

Emptyend's Latest Comments

Any company that keeps repeatedly offering Brexit as an excuse for poor trading (when it is patently a domestic business for which international trade has little impact) fully deserves to be smacked by the market really hard. Down 40% might do it..... Of course any company that has made the mistake of publically backing the Remain campaign for no particularly good business reason (as Adnams…

Bit late, but I'll go for SOCO International (LON:SIA) for the +20% - just for a this case, with the results on Wednesday, there should be news regarding the potential special dividend (6p, my guess) and perhaps on the FDP in Vietnam.The importance of balance sheet and low production costs should continue to move to the fore, with oil prices still weak and the…

Thanks Ed. .....but your closing point just reflects reality - you can't have a discussion unless there are sufficient willing participants, and that generates the bias towards high volatility stocks or the  FTSE100 stocks that many people have in their portfolios. The interesting bit from an investment perspective is often the Bit in the middle.....rgds

Hi Gus, Yes they generally are well off the lows - but if you look at the boards you will find sibstantial negative sentiment and total disengagement with the great majority of contributions being from people who were long from much higher up - and bitter about it. Accordingly I think the volume of posts to currently be a very poor guide to stock-specific sentiment.…

Yes -interesting article, and undoubtedly there is plenty of evidence of groupthink on active bulletin boards.I've contributed to bulletin boards now for some 17 years, mostly on a handful of stocks, and have from time to time been thought of as a "guru" of sorts on one or two of them.....not that I've ever styled myself that way - the debates about the merits of…

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