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Howard Marx's Latest Blogs

I've been thinking about different approaches to valuation. Customer bases for example have wildly different values. Three UK companies: ********************************************************* ASOS (y/e Aug 2017) Sales £1.9bnPBT £80mActive customers 16.5mASOS annual PBT/customer £5 ********************************************************* Tesco (y/e Feb 2018) Sales £51bnPBT £1.3bnActive customers 40m (based on 79m shopping trips/week - I've assumed that customers visit twice/week on average)TSCO annual PBT/customer £33*********************************************************CMC Markets (y/e Mar 2018(e)) Sales £185mPBT…



Howard Marx's Latest Comments

Share prices tend to move in the same direction as consensus expectations of company profitability.Analysts of Arrow Global (LON:ARW) have been persistently less optimistic in the last 12 months:The share price of Arrow Global (LON:ARW) will no doubt improve as and when when this trend of downgrades reverses.

Not sure Mark Minervini has the 'midas touch ' anymore?After all, the Nasdaq-100 today closed over 9% higher than its recent intra-day low (Oct 29th).. and NOW he's calling the bottom?!Like Taleb, I don't think Minervini is prescient enough to call every market turn.

"18 data points is really too low a number to make any inferences"Really? If you flipped a coin 18 times & got 18 Heads-in-a-row, you wouldn't be able to make any inferences? How many flips would you need ?!

"The midterms have consistently been good for the stock market. Remarkably, this has been true for every midterm election since World War II."If true the question is, what's the correlation?It's certainly true that in every 'Mid-term Year' since World War II, the S&P500 has risen without fail between its October lows & year-end. The average return has been 10.6%Of course, correlation isn't proof of causation.…

Comparing Proactis Holdings (LON:PHD) & Victoria (LON:VCP) is surely a case of false equivalence, Paul. 85% of the revenue of Proactis Holdings (LON:PHD) is recurring, on 3-5 year contracts - this visibility allows a degree of Balance Sheet leverage. In addition, their USP ('procurement savings') is likely to prove counter-cyclical i.e. the company will possibly thrive just as well in an economic downturn as an…


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