Fantasy Fund: Jesse Livermore's Fund

About Me:

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. (J.Livermore)

Investment Strategy
I trade... constantly
I tend to buy... according to my system
I hold for... days or less
I invest with... >£1m
Diversification is ... important, but not beyond 10 positions

Howard Marx's Latest Blogs

I've been thinking about different approaches to valuation. Customer bases for example have wildly different values. Three UK companies: ********************************************************* ASOS (y/e Aug 2017) Sales £1.9bnPBT £80mActive customers 16.5mASOS annual PBT/customer £5 ********************************************************* Tesco (y/e Feb 2018) Sales £51bnPBT £1.3bnActive customers 40m (based on 79m shopping trips/week - I've assumed that customers visit twice/week on average)TSCO annual PBT/customer £33*********************************************************CMC Markets (y/e Mar 2018(e)) Sales £185mPBT…

Howard Marx's Latest Comments

"All the while the yield curve is little changed in terms of its steepness. So go figure how reliable it is as a recession predictor based on it being virtually unchanged at the same time as the interest rate outlook for 2019 changing completely in a little over 3 weeks. "But hawkipa, the Yield curve (spread between 10 year Treasury & 3 month bill )…

I think that it's useful to remember that Directors tend to be naturally optimistic.In March 2019 Somero said "We see continued strength in the underlying non-residential construction industry in the US and an extended pipeline of projects that remain in front of our US customer base".In March 2008 Somero said "the non-residential construction market in the US remains strong and sales in the Rest of…

Re IG Group (LON:IGG) , their competitor CMC Markets (LON:CMCX) lowered their revenue guidance from minus 20% to minus 30% (mid-range).Given the fixed cost nature of stockbroking, virtually all of a revenue change drops to the bottom line.So if IG Group (LON:IGG) have had a similar trading experience to their competitor, then July 2019 forecasts still need to fall by £40-50 million.This is all known…

Thanks for posting the link seismo I've been a shareholder of Versarien (LON:VRS) for the past 12 months - the company seems a binary option on either £1 downside or £10 upside, yet the difficulty is in attaching probabilities to these two polarised outcomes. My confusion is regarding the input of CEO Neill Ricketts. It is not clear what value he adds to his company…

Not sure this answers question #1, but Sosandar (LON:SOS) currently achieve 49% of their sales from age groups outside of their core 35-54 demographic: As for market opportunity, there's a consistently high spend across all demographics 15-74:

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