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Fantasy Fund: Jesse Livermore's Fund

About Me:

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. (J.Livermore)

Investment Strategy
I trade... constantly
I tend to buy... according to my system
I hold for... days or less
I invest with... >£1m
Diversification is ... important, but not beyond 10 positions

Howard Marx's Latest Blogs

I've been thinking about different approaches to valuation. Customer bases for example have wildly different values. Three UK companies: ********************************************************* ASOS (y/e Aug 2017) Sales £1.9bnPBT £80mActive customers 16.5mASOS annual PBT/customer £5 ********************************************************* Tesco (y/e Feb 2018) Sales £51bnPBT £1.3bnActive customers 40m (based on 79m shopping trips/week - I've assumed that customers visit twice/week on average)TSCO annual PBT/customer £33*********************************************************CMC Markets (y/e Mar 2018(e)) Sales £185mPBT…

Howard Marx's Latest Comments

End User Spend (EUS) +111% to £465mRevenues +64% to £4.3m = 0.93%So Revenue/EUS margin is £4.3m/£465m, = 0.9%, down from 1.2% last yearQuite a percentage drop. Are they chasing lower margin business or are their existing contracts experiencing margin deflation?

"Buy quality companiesDon’t over payDo nothing"Crazycoops, I think this strategy will come unstuck in the next couple of years.The reason I say this centres on Stockopedia's definition of quality, which includes some pro-cyclical components such as Long Term Average Return on Capital Employed2. Long Term Average Free Cashflow to Assets Rati 3. Long Term Operating Margin Stability 4. Long Term Sales Growth Consistency Ten years…

Graham re Tough MarketsWe all know that cyclical shares do well in an economic upswing, & relatively poorly in a downswing.Similarly, factors also vary in efficacy through the economic cycle. Durng an economic slowdown (where the UK economy currently is), the Value factor tends not to be rewarded. Instead, investors tend to pay up for growth.JP Morgan have attempted to identify which factors work best…

The recent appreciation in the gold price has been rapid:.. it's MACD line is in the 97th percentile, underlying the rapidity of the recent rise..That said, we appear to be at the opportune time in the economic cycle to be investing in precious metals, with economic growth & inflation both falling below trend:So for me the Central Banks response here is key to the outlook…

Duration of the last nine US Equity bear markets (months)  'Average' bear market overlaid onto S&P-500 (last 7 months):

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