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Fantasy Fund: Jesse Livermore's Fund

About Me:

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. (J.Livermore)

Investment Strategy
I trade... constantly
I tend to buy... according to my system
I hold for... days or less
I invest with... >£1m
Diversification is ... important, but not beyond 10 positions
Contrarian


Howard Marx's Latest Blogs

I've been thinking about different approaches to valuation. Customer bases for example have wildly different values. Three UK companies: ********************************************************* ASOS (y/e Aug 2017) Sales £1.9bnPBT £80mActive customers 16.5mASOS annual PBT/customer £5 ********************************************************* Tesco (y/e Feb 2018) Sales £51bnPBT £1.3bnActive customers 40m (based on 79m shopping trips/week - I've assumed that customers visit twice/week on average)TSCO annual PBT/customer £33*********************************************************CMC Markets (y/e Mar 2018(e)) Sales £185mPBT…



Howard Marx's Latest Comments

The vast bulk of short interest in Plus500 (LON:PLUS) has accrued since 31 July 2018, the date when the new ESMA regualtions took effect. Since then Plus500 (LON:PLUS) has released three RNS's which reported above expectations trading (Oct) followed by affirmations of continued strong momentum (Nov, Dec). Comparing Plus500 (LON:PLUS) to CMC Markets (LON:CMCX) is akin to comparing Sosandar (LON:SOS) with Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS)…

Millen, that's an impressive granular analysis of the prospective sales of Sosandar (LON:SOS)My back of the envelope calculation is a little more simplistic.  The size of the target market (women aged 25-54) is £3.7bn per annum according to a recent Sosandar (LON:SOS) presentation: Hence Sosandar (LON:SOS) can achieve £37m of Sales for each 1% market share they achieve. Confusingly given the stated target market (ages…

After today's share price fall, I am selecting QUIZ (LON:QUIZ) for both Fantasy & real-world portfolios for five reasons: Online revenue growth healthy at +34%Huge scope to expand on the High Street e.g. they have less that 15 stand-alone stores in London & the South EastHealthy Balance Sheet - net cash £12.3m vs. market cap of £30mConcerns re Debenhams (LON:DEB) are exaggerated - Debenhams concessions…

The S&P-500 returns by calendar month since 1950 are:US investors commonly describe November to April as the 'Best Six Months' & May to October as the 'Worst Six Months'. Since 1950, almost all of the S&P-500 returns have cumulatively been achieved in the 'Best Six Months':

Paul's Fantasy Fund "Beam Me Up Scotty" has indeed had a challenging year, yet is well ahead on three years.No Portfolio Manager can be properly assessed on 12 months basis. Even Warren Buffet has poor years. Anyone thinking that SCVR is a short term share tipping Board is long overdue a surprise!https://www.stockopedia.com/fa...


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