Registered:
22/05/09
Seen:
10:46am
Followers:
1

Comments
147

Real Name: Andrew

Occupation: Company Director, Private Investor

Interests: Stocks

Fantasy Fund: Defy the market


Investment Strategy
I trade... weekly
I tend to buy... according to my system
I hold for... a few months
I invest with... <£500k
Diversification is ... essential to reduce risk
Momentum, value and quality but above all momentum. Emphasis depends on the season. Heavily influenced by Miniverni, O'Neil and Darvas. If fundamental criteria are met, I buy, ideally as previous resistance (supply) is overcome (if there is any) on new highs. If there isn't resistance (supply) to overcome, then new highs are the criteria (55 day). In essence this is a turtle trader/Darvas box breakout technical strategy. I look to sell when when fundamentals change, or when momentum changes and begins to break down (essentially a draw down from the high determined by 'lower low', trailing stop, absolute stop of high - 15%-20%). Periods of consolidation and a failure to make new highs will result in a tightening of the stop although rarely more than weekly. A breakout followed by a fallback into a consolidation region will give me pause for thought! I accept that I won't call the top, but also accept that shares may pause and need room to breath. I'll also tighten a stop if a 'breakout' fails to manifest. Position size reflects volatility and spread. I tend to ignore shares with spreads above 250 basis points, favour low spreads and ignore 'low volume' shares, by which I mean where my trades will result in a significant price movement; I don't want my trades to be the ones that set the prices and ideally want to be able to enter and exit relatively easily. The higher the spread the lower my position size. As a rule of thumb up to 10% of my portfolio for spreads less than 1% to no more than 2.5% of portfolio for spreads at 4%+ - although the investment case would have to be very strong to consider a 2.5%+ spread. I make use of charts to identify breakouts, support (demand) and resistance (supply) as well as OHLC and candlestick variations.


HumourMe's Latest Blogs

I've been holding off speculation as I've been waiting for an 'up week' in the markets as my first condition, based on 'a rising tide lifts all boats'. If you follow the link to wikipedia you'll see that Ed Miliband appended to this "Now the rising tide just seems to lift the yachts". To Identify the yachts we can use screening, but first we need…

QARP = Quality at a reasonable priceCurrently I'm 100% cash delaying re-entry until the tea-leaves indicate that the tide might be rising. For me this will be, at a minimum, when the weekly Heiken Ashi turns green for the various index: In the meantime though, my 'quality value' instincts are beginning to revert, as in precarious markets I perceive plenty of risks (although it is…

https://www.stockopedia.com/screens/ For those interested in portfolio return vs draw down this can give you a general idea of SR extremes that almost certainly will be exceeded in one of the directions at some point in the future. Very interesting to see them alongside the guru strategies. A summary page of returns vs draw down would be nice ...Edit: This was a brief glimpse of a…

Edit: Nothing to see here. My misunderstanding. Please move along. I used to take comfort from steadily rising consensus forecasts, however, there is an element of historical revision. I think visibility of how erratic they can be reduces the importance of the trend, especially if for a point in time, the trend can be subsequently revised, several months after the fact.I spotted this because I…

Insider Buy SuperStocks- The worst title ever, which can't have done the book any favours. Yet another techno-fundamentalist approach, in the tradition of Darvas, O'Neill (CANSLIM), Minervini etc.. but, he credits others and does bring something new. The book starts with chronicling his journey, detailing his failures and what he did to address them; even includes diet advice. Second half is examples; but no food…



HumourMe's Latest Comments

I was very tempted to buy Bushveld Minerals (LON:BMN) on the 10th April 18, it had gained 93% in 2 months and only pulled back just over 10% but it broke above 15.3P in only 7 days. It went on to gain 60% in less than a month and over 200% in 7 months. Missing that was annoying.I was interested in just what that setup…

The GE chart didn't work, if anyone can enlighten me how to do it I'd be grateful. png works:

HumourMe have you considered using the 50d and 200d moving averages to determine a trend. The problem is that the ones with the steepest moving average are likely to collapse back. Most certainly. The screen I linked to contains this as an additional criteria. The Minervini trend template works well too, especially if it is a bull market. At the moment I use 50d/150d exponential…

Modifying '% from 52w high' to take account of volatility, ensure real 'trending' is going on and '% from 52w high' is not just a random fluctuation in price, requires something like this (it is a work in progress): It can be modified for shorter time periods but is restricted by only having 52 week high/low to choose from. It would be really nice, if…

So I am asking would Ed pick the same stocks today, a month and a half later? The answer is yes, if he went back in time, but no if it were picked today. See https://www.stockopedia.com/co... for the underlying strategy and how thinking has evolved.

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