Registered:
22/05/09
Seen:
4:27am
Followers:
1

Comments
174

Real Name: Andrew

Occupation: Company Director, Private Investor

Interests: Stocks

Fantasy Fund: Defy the market


Investment Strategy
I trade... weekly
I tend to buy... according to my system
I hold for... a few months
I invest with... <£500k
Diversification is ... essential to reduce risk
Momentum, value and quality but above all momentum. Emphasis depends on the season. Heavily influenced by Miniverni, O'Neil and Darvas. If fundamental criteria are met, I buy, ideally as previous resistance (supply) is overcome (if there is any) on new highs. If there isn't resistance (supply) to overcome, then new highs are the criteria (55 day). In essence this is a turtle trader/Darvas box breakout technical strategy. I look to sell when when fundamentals change, or when momentum changes and begins to break down (essentially a draw down from the high determined by 'lower low', trailing stop, absolute stop of high - 15%-20%). Periods of consolidation and a failure to make new highs will result in a tightening of the stop although rarely more than weekly. A breakout followed by a fallback into a consolidation region will give me pause for thought! I accept that I won't call the top, but also accept that shares may pause and need room to breath. I'll also tighten a stop if a 'breakout' fails to manifest. Position size reflects volatility and spread. I tend to ignore shares with spreads above 250 basis points, favour low spreads and ignore 'low volume' shares, by which I mean where my trades will result in a significant price movement; I don't want my trades to be the ones that set the prices and ideally want to be able to enter and exit relatively easily. The higher the spread the lower my position size. As a rule of thumb up to 10% of my portfolio for spreads less than 1% to no more than 2.5% of portfolio for spreads at 4%+ - although the investment case would have to be very strong to consider a 2.5%+ spread. I make use of charts to identify breakouts, support (demand) and resistance (supply) as well as OHLC and candlestick variations.


HumourMe's Latest Blogs

I’m interested in adding a portfolio of value shares to my usual momentum/breakout approach, as value based strategy returns correlate inversely with my usual price momentum (value shares normally get their definition after price falls and momentum is backwards looking). Any screen would also serve, in the event of a market crash, as a quick shortlist of what to put in my basket. I thought…

Edit to "how the screens work", below, clarifying what happens if less than 25 candidates. It is generally considered good practice in statistics/machine learning to split samples into training and test data sets. This is to avoid over-fitting and/or data mining where a result or model derived from one data set has poor performance when applied to out of sample data. Why is this relevant…

I've been holding off speculation as I've been waiting for an 'up week' in the markets as my first condition, based on 'a rising tide lifts all boats'. If you follow the link to wikipedia you'll see that Ed Miliband appended to this "Now the rising tide just seems to lift the yachts". To Identify the yachts we can use screening, but first we need…

QARP = Quality at a reasonable priceCurrently I'm 100% cash delaying re-entry until the tea-leaves indicate that the tide might be rising. For me this will be, at a minimum, when the weekly Heiken Ashi turns green for the various index: In the meantime though, my 'quality value' instincts are beginning to revert, as in precarious markets I perceive plenty of risks (although it is…

https://www.stockopedia.com/screens/ For those interested in portfolio return vs draw down this can give you a general idea of SR extremes that almost certainly will be exceeded in one of the directions at some point in the future. Very interesting to see them alongside the guru strategies. A summary page of returns vs draw down would be nice ...Edit: This was a brief glimpse of a…



HumourMe's Latest Comments

(p.s. I will admit that I am new to charting, and I struggle to see particular shapes signalling up/downtrends)This site is a useful resource:http://thepatternsite.com/Blog.htmlhttp://thepatternsite.com/studies.htmlBy useful, I mean that Bulkowski attempts to systematise the use of trend and price patterns. I first bought one of his books in 2000 (Encyclopedia of chart patterns v1) ,but was too wedded to a pure Fundamental approach at the time,…

Plus500 is interesting. The only warning signs from the headline 'fundamental' numbers yesterday would be the forecast EPS change. On most other valuation and quality measures (except PBV), it looked like a screaming buy: All the figures, apart from the chart and current price are based on yesterdays close. e.g.: % vs 52 week high Another example that if you are riding the momentum wave…

Speculation ahead. To try to eliminate random fluctuations with some % vs 52 week high based screens I've begun changing %52wh < x to %52wh > - 1yr % volatility. It makes little difference in this case, However, if close to the 52w high then the buyers are ascendant and due to anchoring, potential buyers will still be reacting slowly. NAV growth represents historic retained…

I agree that the forex fee is too high, but I'm not aware of another platform aimed at retail investors that offers a multicurrency account and trading in markets outside the UK. Interactive Brokers and Saxo Bank offer this. I'm sure others do too. Finding a UK broker, aimed at retail, who pushes technology and capability forwards, is I think more challenging. 

Very interesting work. Thanks for sharing. You say  I only track a relatively small number of metrics but I did find a handful which seemed to remain reliable predictors even in H2 2018 Which metrics that you track didn't make the screen? Presumably of the un-tracked, those that are similar to these could also be rejected, which might leave a subset of possibles that may…

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