59 mins ago


Occupation: Private Investor

Interests: behavioural finance, portfolio management, managing risk

About Me:

Professionally, I'm a Psychologist. However I grew up watching and learning about how my father and grandfather invested to bring slow but steady returns. I've now reached a point in my life where I feel it is time for me to learn my way of investing. After dabbing in more Naked-Trader-esque trading, I realised that I probably don't have the skill to pull that style of trading off, and I should probably use a rules based system instead.

I am currently using a variant of the NAPS Stockrank system (and still finding my feet!)

Jmuggleton's Latest Blogs

It’s been a while since I’ve written a blog. Last year I blogged about my latest paper portfolio which experimented with different rules, but was largely based on the NAPS. When the market tanked, I ended up tying myself in knots with stop losses and rule changes, and so decided I needed to sit out for 6 months to clear my head and get some…

Given the theme for this month has been about doing less, this will be a shorter post First off, I just wanted to say thank you. I had a fantastic amount of feedback last month, mostly on the subject of stop losses and when to sell. This was all really useful, and thanks again to all who contributed to the discussion. The consensus was that…

Ouch…. It’s been a bad month. The portfolio has lost almost 6% of its value, and 6 of its 20 shares have hit sell rules. In the same period the FTSE has lost only a little over 1%. Further, while overall stockranks have gone down, they have only lost 2.2% this last month. So what’s been going on?SellsMajestic wine Ocean Wilsons Holdings Plus 500 Hansteen…

IntroductionI’m currently reading The Little Book of Behavioural Investing, and one of the key lessons is having a plan and sticking with it when emotions want to take over. So, with that in mind, here is a letter to my panic stricken self when the market goes bear. In writing this, I discovered a flaw in my rules. My current 52 week high rule might…

So, one month into my more momentum focused stockrank rules based approach, how has it gone, and what can be learned?PerformanceA month ago the portfolio was sitting at £68,700, today it is at £70,500, a gain of about 2.6% (or about . In that time, the FTSE 100 has gone up 0.3% (or 2.6% if you start a day later and finish a day earlier).…

Jmuggleton's Latest Comments

Good point about appreciation of sterling. It's made me realise an important caveat to this analysis: I've looked at the risk of one of the possible outcomes (no-deal), and not the risks of the alternatives (a deal/brexit being abandoned). It would be easy to assume the risks would be reversed, but I suppose that wouldn't necessarily be the case 

Couldn't agree more. I'm well aware my information sources are biased, and I currently only have time to read from a limited range. Indeed, this is why I specified this up front as while I try to take what I read with a pinch of salt, speaks to my own biases that this is what I choose to read and others will need to factor…

Interestingly, I drafted this last weekend before the latest round of sabre rattling, and had exactly the same thought as I read the news. I remember several companies which do business in the US and China talking about the impact it had had so far/could have when I was scanning their risk registers for brexit. 

Hi GromleyI'm a little embarrassed to admit it, but you are absolutely right. I didn't go back and read my earlier post... which is rather frustrating given that I'd only recently written it! I do remember being aware of it when I was writing the post (and making the decisions I outlined), but I didn't think to actually re-read it and apply it. I think…

Hi all Thanks for commenting and sharing your own thoughts, and particularly your own experiences of using stop losses. It has made for really interesting reading, and given me a lot of food for thought. The general consensus seems to be that 5% even on conservative shares is likely too tight, although there are valid reasons why people might set one so tightly. I've also…

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