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JohnWigg's Latest Blogs

I've always been interested in "alternative investment" propositions such as catastrophe insurance, litigation finance, etc. where returns can be expected to be uncorrelated with economic activity and general equity markets. I may have found another example in YCA.Demand for uranium has been depressed since the Fukushima disaster of 2011, and the so-called spot price of U3O8 oxide ("yellowcake") has fallen fairly steadily to a current…



JohnWigg's Latest Comments

From my experience the UT trade at session end isn't much of a guide to the next day's opening price, especially if it deviates a lot from nearby trades. I tend to ignore it. However, I understand that the UT price determines the official closing price for the day. This is important for whenever a company issues a statement including that price, eg. for a…

Incidentally, you wrote your piece before today's trading statement, which I've just noticed: https://www.investegate.co.uk/aa-plc--aa--/rns/pre-close-trading-update/201902120700056935P/ So maybe your timing was good!

My first impression is that you are gaming the various possible scenarios, on the basis of which you've decided the AA is probably undervalued. You do mention the outlook for the underlying business a couple of times, but that's the aspect which I'd be considering first. My main impression is that this is a business in decline: breakdowns are becoming less frequent because cars are…

It's a valuable point (per Gromley) that researching possible frauds before the event would take up too much time if deciding to invest. However, if one think just doesn't look right a big investor (such as a hedge fund) could follow up initial doubts with a full investigation with a view to instigating a large short position. And for "ordinary" investors, that in itself would…

Raising min. £10m by a placing at 140p min: https://www.investegate.co.uk/gordon-dadds-group--gor-/rns/proposed-placing-by-accelerated-bookbuild/201901240700059454N/ Why such a low reserve price? (Current sp 189p.) Why would they need a GM to approve? I'm really puzzled by this, and the reasons given don't entirely convince me.


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