Mon 9:43am


Real Name: Paul Lavin

Occupation: Entrepreneur, Fund Manager

Interests: Asian Markets, Commodities, Economics, Emerging Markets, European Markets, Funds, Geopolitics, Hedge Funds, International Stocks, Stocks, US Market

Location: UK

Twitter: @mojomogoz

About Me:

Looking for good stocks to own for the long term. Cash is king, valuation is your friend, the capital cycle drives fitness for most and growth can be delightful but ephemeral. Look for hidden optionality and don't follow the crowd.

Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA Institute)

Lavinit's Latest Blogs

Hello I wrote a response to an interesting discussion re general UK stock debt level kicked off by kalkanite ( I'm interested in AA views so have copied and pasted here for anyone else interested in AA. Here goes.... AA has been on my radar since latter part of 2017. My work on it is really light so far so not very informed and interested…

The end is nigh! You know this right? Particularly if you sell soft furnishings to beleaguered lower income Brits. No think otherwise makes you fo shiz a few tablespoons short of a teaspoon. Well baton down and button up... SCS (LON:SCS) is a great stock and company. Yes, I mean Tony the Tiger grrrrrreat! Its not in the most glam sector and it ain't…

RM (LON:RM.) is a transforming business. The process seems to me going well. I've owned the stock for near 2 years and it has not been comfortable. It's basically two businesses, one dying and one doing well in pretty tough environment. The dying is hardware and physical IT related stuff for schools. The living is software and related curriculum and exam services. Dying bit has…

Update - Tanzanian parliament passes new natural resource laws "enabling renegotiation of mining contracts" This is all expected. I would parallel what's going on here with what happens when, say, a regulator announces something wrong happened or its unhappy with something. Great uncertainty is created, a lot of people run away as it is uncertainty rather than 'risk' and a period of angst follows…

I'll try follow up with some more detailed analysis but this is just a quick note to see if there is any insight/opinion out there on Shanta Gold (LON:SHG). Just bought Shanta Gold (LON:SHG) today on news on adjacent property acquisition and refinancing with Investec.I know the company a little and already had a small piece at price similar to today's 6p (bought sometime in…

Lavinit's Latest Comments

Big day on Wednesday! Berenberg downgraded to sell and price target 100p today (this snippet copied from FTAlphaville). The last paragraph most interesting. I hadn't got round to computing the ability to meet covenants and pay dividends myself yet but suspected it was an issue and with extra investment demanded from Breakwell could cause problems. Here goes: "We downgraded The AA to Hold in October…

Its a to infinity and beyond business. Simoan - as it grows it will be cash flow negative ex financing. When it stops growing it should turn cash flow positive. Great note by Carcosa! I can't invest in a business like this as I am not smart enough to assess it out 25 years nor cute enough to spot when to trade out on stock…

Hi. I looked at this company this morning. I don't really get the attraction and here are my reasons: 1) Too many products with no connection between them other than they are vanity/insecurity plays - love the be a better shagger product - thinking on getting myself in that self-improvement program :) 2) Superdrug is very big. Are they there due to the ex Superdrug…

Clever (ie magic) isn't possible. I'm hoping for something sensible that reveals a future. This is not likely to be kind to the stock price IMO...but it may make for a rather interesting special situation whereby sentiment is trashed, history torn up and the future is feeling too raw for many current holders. Can the new CEO really kitchen sink it all at once (give…

Okay, fair enough. Ratio is positive in the body of his text before the final line you quote implying that the debt is manageable (if a but gauche) and that is what swayed my sentiment. I do think the sentiments about the stock are quote opposed but diametric is a step too far in this instance. Roll on 21 Feb and the great reveal...

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