Occupation: Private Investor

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

Private Investor and Commentator. My comments and posts are NOT recommendations or advice, simply personal opinion.

LongValue's Latest Blogs

Regardless of whether you are bullish or bearish about the direction of the world's financial markets, the charts in this article, in my view, are worth very close observation. Essentially, the research by Bank of America Merrill Lynch pointed to interest rates in 2016 being at astronomically low levels. And by astronomically, I mean astronomically low in historical terms. Interest rates today are marginally higher…

Well, it's not your typical mid-cap London listed oil stock. For starters, SOCO International (LON:SIA) actually pays dividends. And when I say pays dividends I mean that from 2006-2017 it distributed some US$476 million to shareholders. It has a policy of distributing excess cash to the owners of the company. It's not simply about drilling more holes in the ground and paying increasing amounts of…

As the markets get increasingly choppy, this short piece posted on Bloomberg in May 2017 may provide some food for thought. Basically, it illustrates the growth of US Index funds. However, the point that I am making is that it's unclear how these funds will react in extremely volatile markets where, at least in the US, there are a small number of very large cap…

Taking a slightly sideways view of Carillion's demise, it may have implications for the bus sector. This is an industry that is largely operated by a handful of dominant players. As of today, The First Group, Go-Ahead and Stagecoach are all heavily indebted and all are being shorted by hedge funds. This leads me on to Rotala (LSE:ROL), a very well established and profitable bus…

It could have been Mark Twain who said something to the effect that history does not repeat but it does rhyme. In my opinion, whoever said it could quite easily have been referring to the financial markets and to the global economy in general. Although technology changes, as do fashions, much remains the same especially in the context of human nature. Looking back at J.K.…

LongValue's Latest Comments

As yesterday's RNS outlined, the Indico-1 well came in far ahead of expectations. And, obviously, the upside for Amerisur appears substantial. What this means for shareholders, I am unsure. For starters, this project is led by ONGC and not Amerisur. To put it politely, the former has been very conservative in its approach to CPO-5. And what is really needed are flow rates. Just how…

Overdue but certainly worth another look. When I started this thread the price of Brent crude was around US$63 per barrel. One year on, November 5th 2018, and the price had reached some US$72 per barrel. As I write it has fallen back to around US$62 per barrel. However one views it, oil has not gone out off the radar. That said, oil equities have…

Gus, With the share price up some 15% on today's opening, I would have thought it a little odd if the rest of the Board did not follow through with sizeable purchases. It would certainly convey confidence in the company's new strategy. Incidentally, not having skin in the game is an accusation that could not be levelled at Peter Levine the CEO of President Energy…

Hi Gus, OA does not appear to be investing in Amerisur. It's investing in Amerisur's assets, not the listed company. As a former Amerisur investor, I thought, and still do think, that its assets and its broad plan are sound. What I came to believe was that the management team was unable to deliver. At times, I felt that I was watching a game of…

On the face of it, this seems like a good deal for Amerisur shareholders. Not only does it mitigate the risk associated with developing its assets but it also brings in project management expertise. For whatever reason, Amerisur seemed unable to unlock the resources that may lie beneath its acreage. But it comes at a steep cost in terms of diluting its future potential earnings.…

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