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Occupation: Private Investor

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

Private Investor and Commentator. My comments and posts are NOT recommendations or advice, simply personal opinion.

LongValue's Latest Blogs

Regardless of whether you are bullish or bearish about the direction of the world's financial markets, the charts in this article, in my view, are worth very close observation. Essentially, the research by Bank of America Merrill Lynch pointed to interest rates in 2016 being at astronomically low levels. And by astronomically, I mean astronomically low in historical terms. Interest rates today are marginally higher…

Well, it's not your typical mid-cap London listed oil stock. For starters, SOCO International (LON:SIA) actually pays dividends. And when I say pays dividends I mean that from 2006-2017 it distributed some US$476 million to shareholders. It has a policy of distributing excess cash to the owners of the company. It's not simply about drilling more holes in the ground and paying increasing amounts of…

As the markets get increasingly choppy, this short piece posted on Bloomberg in May 2017 may provide some food for thought. Basically, it illustrates the growth of US Index funds. However, the point that I am making is that it's unclear how these funds will react in extremely volatile markets where, at least in the US, there are a small number of very large cap…

Taking a slightly sideways view of Carillion's demise, it may have implications for the bus sector. This is an industry that is largely operated by a handful of dominant players. As of today, The First Group, Go-Ahead and Stagecoach are all heavily indebted and all are being shorted by hedge funds. This leads me on to Rotala (LSE:ROL), a very well established and profitable bus…

It could have been Mark Twain who said something to the effect that history does not repeat but it does rhyme. In my opinion, whoever said it could quite easily have been referring to the financial markets and to the global economy in general. Although technology changes, as do fashions, much remains the same especially in the context of human nature. Looking back at J.K.…

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Strange but what I find most telling from Amerisur's final results is what they don't reveal. But first, let's briefly examine what they do tell us. Revenue is up some 28% to US$108.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA is up 72% to US$34 million. And not surprisingly, operating profit has shot-up – rising from US$0.3 million to US$11 million. Its cash pile has increased moderately to US$44.1…

Paul made a good point about “Averaging down”. The practice seems to be endemic with smallcap investors. And it's particularly acute in the resource sector. This is only my opinion but I think that many inexperienced investors misunderstand the writings of Warren Buffett. When Buffett suggests buying when others are fearful, he is focusing on extremely well run large businesses where there is a strong…

Just how painfully slow progress, or the lack of it, has been at Amerisur Resources (LON:AMER) can be seen from today's RNS. Basically, its Calao-1X well, on its much-vaunted CPO-5 block, has come up a duster. Something that I think should be more concerning for investors is the year-on-year decline in oil production. If we look at Q1 2018, its average production over the period…

A possible takeaway from the Safestyle UK (LON:SFE) debacle could be the danger of investing in newly listed companies. As has been pointed out before, the promoters of these companies know far more about the nuts and bolts of the business than almost any private investor. They can choose their moment very carefully to maximise returns. I would suggest that it may make good sense…

Barnetpeter, that was a good point about the resource sector and lifestyle companies. Not wishing to sound like a broken record but most private investors appear to labour under the assumption that the companies they invest in are run by full-time CEOs. That may not be the case. And it appears to be a chronic problem in the resource sector. The Boards are often composed…

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