Registered:
17/02/15
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19th Nov '15
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Twitter: @MercuriusResear

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Mercurius Research publishes a daily investment note offering immediate, insighful analysis of the UK stock market.


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Key NumbersRevenue flat at £818m and PBT down 13.4% to £86m. Online sales to 59% of total, active customer base up 2.4%. Gross margin down 60bps to 52% and operating margin of 150bps to 11.5%. JD Williams sales down 2.7%, Simply Be up 1.4% and Jacamo up 11.1%.AnalysisN Brown are one of the most frustrating retail companies to analyze. Every quarter the goal posts change…

AnalysisIntroductionShares are down 17% this morning. Last month I wrote about French Connection:"This is a strange one, I like low-risk situations and nothing seems lower risk than 50% of the market cap in cash. The problem is that the absolute figures here are just as large. There is an attractive business somewhere but it is mixed up with stuff that clearly isn't attractive. I can…

Key NumbersGroup revenue up 3.3% and EBIT of £14.3m down 22% YoY. UK Retail net revenue up 4.3% on 4.8% fall in OTC stakes, 50bps fall in GWM, and 12% increase in Machine Gross win. Online sportsbook net revenue is down 31.5% due to 28% increase in amount staked, 18% increase in actives, and 250bps fall in GWM. Online gaming net revenue is up 13%…

Key NumbersNoneAnalysisShares have fallen through the floor on this release and are trading down ~30% at 180p. Management now expect to miss forecasts for the full year and both revenue and profit are expected to be down in the first half YoY. Despite this, I think the company still has decent growth prospects and whilst there is some uncertainty here, the market is now offering…

Key NumbersRevenue up 35% YoY to $60.7m. New customers up 63% YoY to 32.8k, actives up 34% YoY to 67.6k, ARPU up 0.8% YoY to $1,214 and AUAC up 55% YoY to $892. Should meet expectations.AnalysisI don't usually comment on Plus 500. I definitely respect what these guys have done but there are obviously a few issues that have been left open. Either way, I…



Mercurius's Latest Comments

Worth pointing out that Harding was seed investor for a quite large (at least now) value fund (coincidentally, they own Tesco). I am assuming that is the connection as someone from the company he funded spoke last year (or maybe the year before). Amazing record though, AHL then Winton.

...I am not sure what the distinction between Greece changing currency and every other devaluation is either. It generally isn't common for countries to actively adopt a stronger currency either and the only examples I can think of in which this has happened have been caused by politics: Britain in the 1920s, Britain again in the 1960/70s, and the Plaza Accord (Japan, Germany, etc.) in…

Yes, Odey himself is actually running quite a different portfolio from the Absolute Return guys (who hold the vast majority of the Plus500 (LON:PLUS) position). Also, the name hedge fund is a misnomer. Some funds do have a fully hedged position but even then no-one (sensible) thinks that if you a run a net zero long position you are "hedged". Also imo, if you are…

It is a complex situation, I have looked at them a few times before and just realized I understand very little about what they do (the Enterprise stuff esp.). That said, I did actually spot quite an interesting article in the Economist last week about Hewlett Packard and others (http://www.economist.com/news/business/21648685-cloud-computing-prices-keep-falling-whole-it-business-will-change-cheap-convenient). The point I find most interesting is that the transition to the cloud is a…

Thanks very much for cross posting this. I was actually going to post up my reply to your question before you did this...but now you have given me the perfect excuse. Thanks. Thanks for reading (apologies for the long reply in advance). On the lack of numbers, I don't think it is that unusual to do this sort of thing…but you are totally correct…what an…

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