Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)

Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

“I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do..... They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four…

Timarr's Latest Comments

Hi SiYes, I'm a selective buyer at these levels - topped up Jarvis Securities (LON:JIM) on the falls this week and opened positions in Relx (LON:REL) and Hargreaves Lansdown (LON:HL.) - I can't say I'm hugely comfortable with the latter, but I do buy the Nick Train argument of the increasingly dominant franchise. We have a mini-boom for financial advisors going on, and increasing uncertainty…

Hi Si'Fraid I ain't got a clue ... still hopeful of more volatility though. Back in the old days spikes like last weeks only really shook out private investors in small caps but now the insane robots algorithmically ensure even large cap stocks get hit. I really don't think there's ever been a better time to be a fundamental focused private investor, even allowing for…

When it comes to discussing investments I find the wider the audience who are able to participate, the better, and I don't see how anything is gained by discussions held in a goldfish bowl. Seconded.  Preventing anyone posting for the first time - or first few times - without moderation would block the majority of spam.timarr

Hi MartinAm I being overly simplistic or is the whole interest rate rise commentary in yesterday's RNS completely immaterial?Jarvis Securities (LON:JIM) earned £3.8 million last year on "treasury deposits, cash at bank and overdrawn client accounts": basically all of that is interest rate related. That's about a third of their earnings.I don't know what kinds of rates they're getting on deposits, but it's not hard…

Hi GrahamJarvis Securities (LON:JIM) reported yesterday, more your thing than Paul's and might be worth a look on a slow news day: stocko discussion here:

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