Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)

Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Following up my question about popular stocks from the SCVR that had performed badly ( I went and did a bit of digging. It's a thoroughly unscientific study which has cherrypicked its examples, and no doubt I've missed a few but I'm really just interested to see if there are any principles we can dig out. So, let's have a look: Revolution Bars (LON:RBG) –…

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

Timarr's Latest Comments

RE: Spectra Systems (LON:SPSY) Although banknotes are unlikely to disappear entirely what we've seen in Sweden and China is likely to repeated globally. It's not just contactless payments - although they are a factor - but mainly mobile payments (and I don't just mean things like ApplePay, that are just payment cards in a less easy to use form factor). In Sweden the volume of…

Hi kenThanks. We're not that far apart on buybacks - you think they're never a good thing, I think they're almost never a good thing :-)CNBC did some research that shows that companies performing buybacks underperform their peers: this research suggests that a lot of companies are performing buybacks to shore up an overvalued share price, presumably so that the management can benefit from…

The Investor's Chronicle article in question can be boiled down to a single quote: Share buybacks only make shareholders better off if the price paid for the shares is less than the company is actually worth. This is exactly the point Warren Buffett always makes, although he uses the Ben Graham derived term "intrinsic value" as shorthand for the value of the company.  In this…

Hi snoo RE: IG Group (LON:IGG) Well, those remuneration costs could be slashed as well, if times got really tough.  Although I can't say I'd be particularly keen on IG Group (LON:IGG) cutting costs even if revenues dropped further, I'd rather they invested and cut the dividend. The interesting thing here is that you have a market leader suffering due to industry wide problems caused…

Hi Phil IG Group (LON:IGG): 21 (£400m Rev - £290m Opex less C Tax = Net profit of £89m = EPS of 24p) OK, I can see that, if you annualise last quarter and assume a further decline. It's pessimistic, but who knows, it's possible I suppose.  Until we see the run rate for a few more quarters it's hard to unpick the impact of…

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