Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)

Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

“I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do..... They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four…

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One final point on Accrol Group (LON:ACRL) from me - no one has mentioned the Health & Safety issues. The extent of the potential fine - £550,000 to £2,900,000 was already known and the company makes it clear that the fine will make a material difference to its cash position. OK, not great but the odd accident does happen ... only they then add:Since January…

That works if - and only if - you can link the physically mined mineral to the record on the digital ledger and I don't know how you'd do that. There are some things that lend themselves to this - so Everledger use blockchain to track diamonds, but that's done by etching an identifier onto the diamond itself, and it's the identifier that's then tracked.…

It's interesting that there's no country in the world that trades solely under WTO rules, for the very good reason that they're the equivalent of the minimum wage safety net for the world's poorest and weakest nations. Obviously over time we'd develop our own trade deals - it would be madness for countries to not come to some arrangements with the UK. Whether those would,…

I think the big concern is PSD2 in the EEA. Direct carrier billing companies are excluded from the requirements of Strong Customer Authentication (essentially a requirement to do KYC and 2-factor authentication) as long as no single payment is over €50 and the total transacted is less than €300 a month. Whether that impacts Boku or Bango I know not, but it's got to be…

We've probably all seen the adverts where a lack of emergency savings is normalised and people are encouraged to borrow at extremely high interest rates rather than suffer some minor inconvenience such as a few days of cold showers. It is debatable whether this is good or bad and whether consumer credit is ever in the borrower's interest or should even be allowed. Indeed, I…

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