Registered:
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Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)


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Long-term, boring, stock based investing


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A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Following up my question about popular stocks from the SCVR that had performed badly (https://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-fri-1-march-2019-duke-rbg-rmv-453208/) I went and did a bit of digging. It's a thoroughly unscientific study which has cherrypicked its examples, and no doubt I've missed a few but I'm really just interested to see if there are any principles we can dig out. So, let's have a look: Revolution Bars (LON:RBG) –…

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…



Timarr's Latest Comments

IG Group (LON:IGG)It would be interesting to know whether IG's bullishness is a result of the industry successfully adjusting to the ESMA rules. Or is it simply effectively executing its turnaround strategy.The ESMA rule impact is still ongoing but will start to wash out in the year on year figures from mid-year. The question from the previous numbers was whether the decline was solely ESMA…

The degree of uncertainty & speculation in the comments section shows that it was an inadequate RNS. That's for sure. If you pro-rata the last FY results against the percentage figures given today it looks like their sales outside UK and US dropped by the equivalent of £14m. Given that South Korea only did £9m total sales last year it looks like the problems can't…

But if overall sales are down 10% then sales from Korea and the rest of the world must be down 14% as a proportion of total sales. Perhaps more significantly it means that SK and RoW sales have dropped by an eye-watering 40%. It's hard to believe that these markets have simply decided, en-masse, that they don't like the current product ranges. The price drop…

Hi GrahamNo I'm not 100% sure - the rules in this area are incredibly complicated. However, this is taken from the LSE guide to tax benefits, in the section on IHT relief:The full 100 per cent exemption for a shareholding is only applicable to certain unquoted companies (see page 07). For these purposes, shares admitted to AIM are regarded as unquoted. The investment must be…

RE: Air Partner (LON:AIR)She said it was intended that the report came out at 7am. It arrived 5.45pm. I explained that this is not good for investor confidence which needs to be restored.While agreeing that the report should have appeared at 7pm, once it hadn't they were right to delay it to after the end of trading. There's nothing worse than companies putting out mid-session…

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