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Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)

Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

“I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do..... They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four…

Timarr's Latest Comments

Hi peterg Where possible I believe we should try to observe the Principle of Charity when interpreting the written word.  So, while I agree that the language is slightly loose, I think what I meant is clear. For instance, it's fairly obvious I'm not suggesting that a minimum wage Deliveroo courier should have to give up more of their wages to fund social security payments.…

That's correct, global wealth is not a zero sum game. Angus Maddison's research in this area is famous. In essence the wealth of the individual, as measured by real per capita GDP was virtually unchanged through from 1AD through to 1820AD. After that it exploded, if about 2% real growth per year can be described in that way. But from that point on the world…

I'd agree, but it's GARP rather than Value, so I understood RS's point. But for a reasonable price you get a collection of valuable brands which provide the company with some competitive advantage and control over pricing. Clearly much of what Portmeirion (LON:PMP) provide can be substituted at a lower price, but the point is that they're able to maintain margins and ROC/ROI anyway, which…

Great video :)There's a classic piece of research that has baby boys and girls dressed randomly in blue or pink. A bunch of (one hopes) carefully selected adults are let loose with them and videoed. The adults are then asked if they treat baby boys or girls differently - and to a man and woman they insist they don't. They're then shown the video -…

Technically the free float is about 17% but in practice it's only about 5%. The main shareholder is EICR (Cyprus) which is ultimately controlled by iEnergizer (LON:IBPO) 's CEO, so essentially it's his company and he can do with it what he wants: Can't see why anyone would want to invest in this, but if you do expect lots and lots of volatility. timarr

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