Registered:
15/06/09
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Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)


Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


Blog

A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

“I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do..... They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four…



Timarr's Latest Comments

On Renishaw (LON:RSW) - historically they've put out quite a lot of profit warnings and then met expectations anyway, it's the nature of their business. They're one of a bunch of higher quality engineers like Halma (LON:HLMA) and Spirax-Sarco Engineering (LON:SPX) I'd love to own if I could buy them at the right price.  I don't generally tend to time the market either, but I…

Hi SiYes, you're right. It's somewhere around the 20% mark. I sold out in the summer along with anything else I thought might get got up in the general uncertainty around (which doesn't leave a lot, to be honest). It seems to be a growing trend - Renishaw (LON:RSW) also indicated a slowdown today and they've previously been a leading indicator of troubles ahead due…

Hi Mr C RE: Zytronic (LON:ZYT) - can't find a forecast either but the usual shorthand of using the figures on the Stock Report suggests about £4.4m. So not a huge miss. Also a rather ambiguous trading statement from Games Workshop (LON:GAW) - too large for the SCVR these days and no detail anyway: increased sales, static profits, uncertainty ahead. Don't suppose that'll be very…

Hi herbie That's the wrong way round. Look at what they don't invest in, as opposed to what they do. None of those funds invests in commodities, many types of consumer cyclical, financials, telecoms, utilities and many types of technology company.  We've had booms in IT, financials and oil stocks just this century - is it really believable that none of those things will ever…

I admire Terry Smith, Nick Train and Keith Ashworth-Lord and try to read everything I can by them, but I don’t think investing in all three of their funds is diversification other than in the most limited sense. To jump ahead to my conclusion, it’s likely that if one of those funds does well then all of them will, and if one of them does…

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