Mon 9:03am


Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)

Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

The long awaited review by the Office of Tax Simplification into IHT has finally arrived and questions whether retaining BPR on AIM is justified: Hard to imagine a BJ led government acting on this, but one assumes that the relief would be removed under a government of any other hue. timarr

Following up my question about popular stocks from the SCVR that had performed badly ( I went and did a bit of digging. It's a thoroughly unscientific study which has cherrypicked its examples, and no doubt I've missed a few but I'm really just interested to see if there are any principles we can dig out. So, let's have a look: Revolution Bars (LON:RBG) –…

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

Timarr's Latest Comments

2 minutes consideration has come up with - adding a very large colourful tamper proof label attached to the front of every item. Unsurprisingly the fashion industry has put more than a couple of minutes into the problem. They're all over fraud prevention tags to defend themselves against wear and return fraud - or wardrobing, as it's known. They work, we know this, but there…

Sorry timarr, but how is the comment misleading? The size of the fund can increase by both fund performance (12% you quote) plus new money added by investors. If the size of the fund doubles from just over £500m to over £1b the growth can come from new investor money and performance of shareholdings. Well, I'm far from an inexperienced investor, but I did a…

Over the past six months Keith Ashworth-Lord has seen the size of his Sandford Deland UK Buffettology Fund nearly double to £1.13 billion. In that time, the number of holdings in the fund has risen from 30 stocks to just 34. I think that's a little misleading. Buffetology has a fine record, but it's up about 12% in the last 6 months. The size of…

Just looking at the IHS Market Report, which gives a snapshot of UK manufacturing. "Highlights" are that PMI has fallen to its lowest level since 2012 and that the pace of decline is quickening. There's a double whammy here, as Brexit and Trump's trade wars have their impact:There were reports that some EU-based clients were routing supply chains away from the UK due to Brexit.…

Amigo Holdings (LON:AMGO) is looking like a perfect storm - they're setting aside more cash as the number of customers in arrears rise and they're seeing a rise in customer complaints. A regulatory clampdown on guarantor loan companies is expected to arrive soon which will likely force them to focus on new customers rather than recycling existing ones - a more difficult and expensive proposition.Far…

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