Registered:
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Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)


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Long-term, boring, stock based investing


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A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

The long awaited review by the Office of Tax Simplification into IHT has finally arrived and questions whether retaining BPR on AIM is justified:https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ots-inheritance-tax-review-simplifying-the-design-of-the-tax Hard to imagine a BJ led government acting on this, but one assumes that the relief would be removed under a government of any other hue. timarr

Following up my question about popular stocks from the SCVR that had performed badly (https://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-fri-1-march-2019-duke-rbg-rmv-453208/) I went and did a bit of digging. It's a thoroughly unscientific study which has cherrypicked its examples, and no doubt I've missed a few but I'm really just interested to see if there are any principles we can dig out. So, let's have a look: Revolution Bars (LON:RBG) –…

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…



Timarr's Latest Comments

Hi SiYep. I'm a big fan of Dan Ariely too. Reading his books completely changed my own behaviour in certain situations, assuming I could detect when I was being irrational that is :-)Agreed, the videos are worth looking at too. The Gneezy experiment was described in Freakonomics, but I thought Predictably Irrational the better book. The trouble is, I believe several people who were previously…

It would be wholly unsurprising if Stockopedia subscribers' view of late or incomplete SCVRs changes as a result of it becoming part of the subscription. Yet, of course, nothing has actuallly changed. We're not getting anything less than we did before.Uri Gneezy and Aldo Rustichini carried out an experiment in child daycare centres in Israel.  What they found was that introducing a small fee for…

Hi Gromley Yes, I didn't spot it either :) The bid has clearly contributed to Momentum, even though the premium was derisory. The changes to Quality reflect the full year results at the end of May. In general I think it's a useful reminder of how mechanical the rankings are. Sticking labels like "Value Trap" or "High Flyer" on them obscures the underlying machinery. In…

To be honest, the fact CBRE have made an offer for them may have had some impact too, I don't think Stock Ranks are yet capable of predicting bids :) timarr

As the results for the year to 31.3.19 were pretty much in line with SP's forecast how sound are either of SP's assessments? Stockopedia doesn't give forecasts or assessments. Stockranks, from which Stock Styles are derived,  are statistical, they don't predict anything about specific stocks. They can either be used to blindly select a portfolio or as an initial filter before doing more research. What…

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