Registered:
13/05/09
Seen:
9th Apr
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Occupation: Private Investor

Interests: Oil, Stocks

About Me:

I'm an active private investor specialising in the oil and gas sector. I decided to focus on this area after having a disastrous experience 10 years ago when I naively delegated investment to a "professional" who subsequently lost most of my life savings and my pension. That experience taught me that it was foolhardy to invest in industries/companies you don't understand properly and that many "professionals" are doing just that, often based on the most superficial analysis and the most inadequate understanding of the underlying business. I decided that I'd take my financial destiny into my own hands.

 

I chose oil as a specialist focus partly because it was the industry I'd spent most of my career in over many years in >25 countries all over the world. That prior experience gave me a good  understanding of E&P from an operational perspective and I've subsequently leveraged that into an appreciation of the sector from an investment perspective - quite a different thing. But the one really helps the other.

 

I find that my background and my specialist focus help me get access to management and help me talk to them when I get in.  I've been seriously astonished at the open-ness and responsiveness of many top managers in this industry. Sensible questions, asked in a sensible manner almost always receive a very full response. (I have to single out Tom Cross of Dana for his readiness to go the extra mile to help small PI's understand his business).

 

Of course the other reason I chose to specialise in oil was that ten years ago it was very easy to figure out that the price was going to rise in a sustained manner over a long period. I still find it hard to believe that everybody else didn't see that coming at that time. I certainly can't claim any credit for doing so. It was just too obvious to miss - provided that is you looked at things from the right perspective. (there's an article to be written on this topic when I can find time........)




Tournesol's Latest Blogs

Blancco fell from grace recently and its share price nosedived. The first obvious sign of trouble was the very sudden departure of its CFO after only 6 months in the job and only a few weeks after he had spoken very publically about his enthusiastic engagement and the once in a lifetime opportunity it represented. The company's subsequent explanations of this departure seemed somewhat thin…

Half year results out this morning - RNS is here.Not easy to disentangle the financial/accounting stuff (not when you are an accounting numpty like me anyway). But looks as if underlying business is doing well albeit with some hiccups around growth, acquisitions and misalignment between sales staff and markets. Long term growth potential is presented as still very viable.BUT and it's a pretty big BUT…

….for its near 10% rise today? If so, I can't find any mention of it anywhere obvious. Not complaining, but always prefer to know what's afoot. And please don't tell me it's 12 inches.

I am retired and my income comes from my SIPP which is in drawdown and my life savings which are in ISAs. For me the impact/importance of gains and losses is significantly asymmetric. For me it is much more important to avoid losses than it is to obtain gains. This was why I bailed out of oil last year or whenever it was, just before…

I have posted several fragmentary pieces about this company and hope to find time to do a more comprehensive write up in the near future. Until then my apologies for the fragmentary nature of related posts. Summary Breedon sells bulk materials to the construction industry. It has grown from a market cap of 2 million to a market cap of 800 million in a short…



Tournesol's Latest Comments

Dearg you say "...Stocks may need to compound earnings by 15% or more per annum over next five years to allow their share prices simply to stand still…." What on earth does that mean?

There are other scenarios which seem to me to be more likely than any of those 3: 4) abandon negotiations and crash out of EU in hardest of hard brexits 5) resign as PM saying country now ungovernable -> leadership contest -> Boris or worse 6) call another General Election leading to…. 7) hung parliament -> paralysis 7) or even Jeremy Corbyn as PM, McDonnell…

Stephen I guess you are entitled to continue making unsubstantiated claims whilst choosing not to provide any supporting evidence. Likewise I am entitled to continue pointing this out. Makes for a boring discussion though.

Hi StephenI'm sorry if you feel persecuted, that's absolutely not my intention. What's that old saying to the effect that your friends are the ones who challenge you when you go wrong - your enemies are the ones who say nothing…..you say "….Plea for facts? I have published regular annual reviews each November ….and "….I'm not going to justify any further what I do, having…

I suffered substantial losses when the tech crash came and again when the financial crisis happened. Since then I have been determined to dodge the next bullet(s) even if that means missing opportunities. I find it hard work to recover from major losses and acceptable to endure periods of poor returns. I went into cash when there was a market wobble a few years ago…

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