15th Dec '12


Occupation: Blogger, Student, Other

Interests: Economics, European Markets, Geopolitics, International Stocks, Stocks, US Market

Location: Scotland

About Me:

I'm a private investor based in the UK. I run Valuhunteruk a value investing blog started in March 2011 which is a continuation of a private blog I have been running since mid-2010. I publish the research and key ideas behind my decisions and the performance is tracked in a portofolio.

Investment Strategy
I trade... monthly
I tend to buy... after much research
I hold for... years
I invest with... <£500k

I follow a value investing philosophy. I tend not to subscribe to any one opinion and focus instead on not overpaying, particularly, with regard to future growth. I try to focus as much as possible on situations with clear catalysts for revaluation however, as I run a benchmarked portfolio on my web site I also look at more general situations without any specific catalysts. The benchmark I follow is the FTSE 250 (for simplicity more than accuracy) but I generally try to target a low-to-mid teens return although this depends on the current market. The other outcome of the benchmarked portfolio is that I run slightly more positions than the typical private value investor and I adjust risk through exposure to the general or special situations.


Value investing ideas primarily in the UK stock market but also in the US. Some general market commentary and occasional book reviews. Portfolio tracking the outcome of ideas published on the site.

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Valuhunteruk's Latest Blogs

Apache (NYSE:APA) has underperformed the market significantly over the past year due to the dramatic political uncertainty in Egypt; accounting for 20% of Apache’s worldwide production in 2012. The decline triggered by these events has been far in excess of any loss that might result from, in the worst case, a total expropriation of Egyptian assets. A recent sale of a 33% interest in these…

Lancashire Holdings (LON:LRE) has built an excellent reputation amongst investors and analysts. Since floating the company has focused on shareholder returns over growth and has returned 190% of capital raised in its 2005 IPO. Cumulative ROE since that point is an impressive ~250%. In the past six months, Lancashire seems to have fallen out of favour with the market. Taking into account the substantial distribution…

One way to uncover great companies is simply doing a screen of 10-year ROICs. Most of these companies are never available at decent valuations but Weight Watchers has had a particularly terrible year and is now trading at just under 14x trailing earnings. My interest in Weight Watchers was piqued by its returns; in the past ten years, it returned an average of 20.7% on…

ROUNDY’S (NYSE:RDNY) – $211m. Owns and operates 158 supermarkets largely in Wisconsin. IPO’ed in Feb 2012 at $8.50 (22m shares, 14.7m new shares to pay down debt. 38% owned by Willis Stein (13.8m). Valuation Currently trades at $4.62, earned $0.96 in the TTM -> 4.8x, projected earnings are $1.06, Forward P/E 4.32x, CFO-Capex in the TTM was $3.18 despite capex doubling. Overall very cheap for…

Summary - Booker has achieved massive success from growing its market share amongst the “Caterer” and “Retailer” customer segments. Sales and margin growth has been excellent. Growth in ROE has been largely due to these operating improvements. However, gains in market share are largely one-time and a substantial portion of the current price is growth. Customers are under pressure and the margins in the wholesale…

Valuhunteruk's Latest Comments

The performance today was due to the spin off of Spirit (which was all of the managed business and some leases). the ratio was one-to-one (so 1 share of Punch Taverns (LON:PUB) gets you 1 share of £SPRT ). it will take a few days (distribution of the new shares should be done in mid-August) for stuff to settle down but £SPRT was offered between…

Thanks very much for the comment, its always helpful to hear the views of an expert doing business in the industry rather than my slightly ignorant guesses as to whats going on. Valuation - Yes, I should have actually highlighted what I was doing with my multiples. Basically, it was for the whole Spirit business and the number was calculated by halving what JDW is…

I would definetely agree that the fall was overdone, 40% is a lot and even though I am generally quite pessimistic I can see the stock trading well up from here. The problem for me though is what happens after. If I had to pin it down to two things it would be the change in leverage (before 2Wire it was negative) and the effect…

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