* Major U.S. stock indexes red; Nasdaq down ~1.7%
* Stimulus talks drag on
* Nearly all major S&P sectors fall: tech hit hardest
* Energy very slightly green
* Dollar up; crude, gold down, U.S. 10-Year yield ~0.93%
Dec 9 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of
markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your
thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
DOORDASH SETS TABLE FOR AIRBNB IN TORRID IPO MARKET (1330
EST/1830 GMT)
Food delivery firm DoorDash DASH.N blows past its IPO
price on Wednesday, setting the table for Airbnb Inc's ABNB.O
long-awaited public debut on Thursday.
DASH opens at $182 after the IPO priced at $102, above an
already upwardly revised target range. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL4N2IP3EY
This as home rental startup Airbnb is reportedly poised to
price its IPO above a targeted range of $56-$60 later today.
Alongside DASH, AI software firm C3.ai Inc's AI.N shares
more than double in debut urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL4N2IP2ED, and shares of
advertising tech company Pubmatic PUBM.O are up 40%.
urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL4N2IP2FE
IPOs have come at a blistering pace this year. Per Dealogic,
397 companies have brought IPOs to market in 2020, raising
nearly $145 billion as of Dec. 7. This figure is nearly double
the 200 new issues that collected $58.8 billion for the same
period in 2019.
And white-hot deal performance has clearly helped fuel new
issuance. The Renaissance IPO ETF IPO.N , which owns shares of
companies that recently went public, has surged about 110% this
year vs the S&P 500 index's .SPX 14% advance.
(Lance Tupper, Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss)
*****
HYDROGEN: FLOATING AROUND IN GREEN ENERGY CIRCLES (1235
EST/1735 GMT)
Nicholas Colas, Co-Founder of DataTrek Research, is out with
some remarks on hydrogen, which has once again become a hot
topic in green energy circles.
Colas says that "as government policymakers start to
consider what concrete steps their countries need to take to
decarbonize, they seem to be coming to the conclusion that they
must embrace an 'all of the above' set of solutions."
Thus, besides solar, wind, and electric cars, there may be
room for other ideas as well.
As for hydrogen, Colas notes some building momentum. He says
that Washington state is weighing giving hydrogen-powered
vehicle purchasers the same sales tax breaks given to those who
buy electric cars. He adds that Washington is also progressing
on the necessary refueling infrastructure, with plans to open
stations by 2022.
Colas also says Hyundai is partnering with British chemical
company Ineos to jointly develop hydrogen-powered vehicles.
Meanwhile, he also notes that Porsche, Siemens and several of
the world’s oil companies are working to develop and
commercialize “e-Fuels,” which is basically climate-neutral
gasoline, at a plant in the south of Chile.
Colas says the idea here is to take wind power, which is
apparently plentiful and reliable so near to Cape Horn, use it
to make hydrogen, then combine it with carbon dioxide from the
air to create a clean version of methanol. "From there it is a
hop-skip-jump to gasoline."
In conclusion, DataTrek states that going forward, they will
be spending a lot more time considering clean energy
alternatives. Solutions like green hydrogen remain a possible
disruptor to electric vehicles. Those, he says, "are actually
the incumbents in Green Energy 1.0."
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
EUROPE'S RISK APPETITE WAVERS AHEAD OF BREXIT DINNER (1148
EST/1648 GMT)
European stocks markets, after a choppy session, ended the
day in positive territory, but well off earlier highs .
Risk appetite sure seems to have wavered ahead of a
high-stake Brexit dinner in Brussels tonight.
The pan-European STOXX 600 gained a meagre 0.4% while the
pound maintained some gains, which seems to show investors are
not ready to run for the hills just yet and are giving peace a
chance.
But while there's little expectation that a post-Brexit deal
can be agreed on in full tonight, the possibility that UK PM
Boris Johnson and the head of European Commission Ursula von der
Leyen agree to disagree and call it night, so to speak, is very
real.
If the EU and the UK officially give up on finding some kind
of trade agreement, tomorrow's session might prove to be a
totally different one.
On the bright side, it's an ECB Thursday which means
Christine Lagarde will get the opportunity to seek to calm
things down in the event of a stormy day across financial
markets.
At the moment, money is clearly on talks carrying for who
knows how long.
As Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS GWM wrote this
morning, "the interminably tedious US fiscal discussions
continue to be tedious and interminable".
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
WEDNESDAY DATA: THE ANCIENT MONTH OF OCTOBER (1120 EST/1620
GMT)
Data released on Wednesday focused mainly on a long-ago
October, that fabled month when the presidential election still
loomed, new vaccine developments weren't quite so promising,
stimulus seemed like an impossible dream and the spike in new
COVID infections had yet to reach the stratosphere.
In October, the U.S. saw more job openings, more layoffs,
and fewer hires according to the Labor Department's Job Openings
and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) USJOLT=ECI , a gauge of labor
market churn.
The quit rate, seen by economists as a barometer of consumer
expectations - workers are less likely to walk away from a job
in times of economic uncertainty - edged up slightly.
According to Stan Shipley, economist/strategist at Evercore
ISI, the report "was mixed on balance and is consistent with the
disappointing November payroll release."
"Though the absolute level of job openings is elevated,
relative to the level of unemployment, they are low," Shipley
adds.
The increase in job openings and decrease in hires appears
to echo the NFIB's small business survey released on Tuesday, in
which survey respondents said finding qualified workers was
their biggest challenge.
In a separate report, the amount of wholesale goods stored
in U.S. warehouses USWINV=ECI increased by 1.1% in October,
according to the Commerce Department, a faster pace that
previously reported and a decent acceleration from September's
0.7% growth pace.
But compared with last year, wholesale inventories are down
2.2%.
While an inventory rebound helped boost third-quarter GDP to
a historic 33.1% annualized growth rate, inventories had been a
drag on the economy for the previous five quarters, and
according to recent indicators from ISM and NFIB, they remain at
depressed levels.
But more recent economic data could be found in the Mortgage
Bankers Association (MBA) home loan data from last week.
The average 30-year fixed contract rate USMG=ECI shed
another 2 basis points to 2.90% last week, according to the MBA,
setting a new historic low. But that failed to impress potential
homebuyers.
While applications to refinance existing loans USMGR=ECI
edged higher, those gains were offset by a 5% drop in demand for
loans to purchase homes USMGPI=ECI , resulting in a net 1.2%
drop in mortgage demand.
"Our forecast is for a slower pace of home sales in the
months ahead over the balance of 2020 due to waning demand from
urban dwellers, tight inventories and a sharp rise in home
prices, but the risk may be for further upside surprises," says
Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics.
Investors appear to be taking a breather in morning trading
after Tuesday's record closing highs for the S&P and the Nasdaq.
All three major U.S. stock indexes are modestly lower. But
small caps .RUT and Dow transports .DJT are having a good
day.
(Stephen Culp)
*****
WHAT'S NEXT FOR SMALL CAPS? (1005 EST/1505 GMT)
Small caps are yet again the belle of the ball on Wednesday
with the Russell 2000's .RUT almost 1% gain and the 1.2%
advance for the S&P 600 .SPCY making the S&P's move look
shabby.
This was after the Russell on Tuesday far outstripped the
broader market and boasted a record closing high, ending above
1900 for the first time. So far the index is up 6.3% for
December after its record 18.3% monthly jump in November.
BofA equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall notes that
forward P/E expanded across sizes, with the Russell 2000 rising
from 16.2x to 18.1x in its best month ever while the Russell
Midcap expanded from 19.1x to 20.7x and the Russell 1000 climbed
from 20.5x to 22.3x "underscoring the sharp rise in optimism."
But even with valuations at the highest levels since the
summer, Carey Hall says "the rally has failed to meaningfully
close the valuation gap between small and large caps, which are
at a 21% discount relative to where they've historically traded
vs. large caps."
But, Carey Hall sees COVID-19 as the biggest risk to her
small cap vs large cap call.
"A poor implementation of the vaccine rollout or lack of
fiscal stimulus amid elevated optimism would disproportionally
impact risky small caps stocks," Carey Hall writes.
This is because they are more exposed to the domestic
economy and credit conditions and have more exposure to
secularly challenged sectors. Plus they do look expensive
relative to large caps when non-earners and outliers are
included.
(Sinéad Carew)
*****
"BOOM, GOLDILOCKS AGAIN, THIS TIME WITH A FISCAL TWIST"
(0940 EST/1440 GMT)
That's a nice summary of the state which a rare combination
of monetary and fiscal stimulus globally has put markets in, as
equity gauges across geographies scale new peaks in anticipation
of a big macro bounce from the Coronavirus downturn.
Credit for that goes to Giuseppe Ganci, chief investment
officer at Swiss-based Compass Asset Management, who reflects in
his latest note for clients about what lies ahead and how should
investors position themselves in such a changing environment.
Looking at the unusual duo of central banks and governments
moving in tandem with support measures, he highlights how the
nomination of Janet Yellen "just fits the bill".
And in a sense tomorrow's European agenda with a EU summit
on a stimulus package and an ECB meeting set to kick off more
easing also exemplifies the new backdrop for markets.
Back to the positioning question, Ganci says: "We got to run
portfolios with higher risk than in the past. It is inevitable
because 'There Is No Alternative' for us too."
He's constructive on developed market credit because it's
"closer to the action of central banks" and believes the new
U.S. administration won't derail the positive trend for
equities, even though it will likely change internal leadership.
"With Trump we got to invest thinking 'America First' and
America delivered first class results. With Biden I guess we can
switch to an 'America Second' mindset," he argues
"So, we overweight Asia and, after many years, we are more
constructive even on Europe. Both areas offer better 'Value'
than Large Cap US," he concludes.
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
DOW INDUSTRIALS: COMING TO A POINT (0900 EST/1400 GMT)
Unlike the S&P 500 .SPX , and the Nasdaq .IXIC , since the
Dow Industrials .DJI finally established a fresh record-high
close on November 16, the blue-chip average has struggled to
sustain strength.
Since November 16, the Dow has yet to score 2 record-high
closes in a row. Instead, after ending at a fresh record on
November 24 and again on December 4, it immediately sputtered.
It now coils in a contracting range, or rising wedge
pattern, which can be easily seen on the hourly chart:
The rising wedge pattern could be an ending-diagonal, which
would suggest the Dow's rise is nearly exhausted. That said, if
the Dow can thrust above the upper boundary of the pattern,
which is around 30,290 today, it could clear the way for a spike
higher.
The next hurdles would be log-scale resistance lines from
2000 and early 2018, which now, on a monthly basis, come in
around 30,425 and 30,865. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2IB14U
Conversely, an immediate decline, which breaks the lower
boundary of the pattern, now around 29,865, could have greater
bearish implications.
Of note, with the recent narrowing price action, historical
volatility has collapsed. In fact, daily Bollinger Band Width
now stands at its tightest reading since February 5th. Five days
later the Dow peaked and ultimately collapsed 38% into its March
trough.
Thus, with the Dow making its way toward the point of the
pattern, momentum and volatility appear poised to pick up, one
way or the other. This, as we near the winter solstice.
urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2IO11S
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR WEDNESDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EST/1400
GMT - CLICK HERE: urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2IP0XV
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Dow12092020 https://tmsnrt.rs/371bBZo
MBA https://tmsnrt.rs/2IwNt7D
WSISC12092020 https://tmsnrt.rs/3gutToS
JOLTS job openings 2 https://tmsnrt.rs/3m4ICrQ
JoltsLayoffsSC12092020 https://tmsnrt.rs/3lWQGe9
1 year performance of IPO ETF vs S&P 500 https://tmsnrt.rs/3gBVV1V
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views
expressed are his own)