Soco AGM - June 23rd 2011: Attendance, Questions And Views? | Murakami

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9th Jun '11 by Murakami

109 comments 18593 reads

By popular demand, an event thread for the forthcoming Soco AGM at The Lincoln Centre, 18 Lincoln’s Inn Fields, London WC2A 3ED on 23 June 2011 at 10 a.m.

Who's going?

Anticipated questions?

Thoughts arising?

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Murakami

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109 comments

WeeEck

9th Jun '11

Unfortunately I will not be able to attend but if the Board are answering questions on TGD I would be obliged if someone who is, could ask if there has been any assessment of the kind of artificial lift technology that may have to be employed in raising the oil we know is in TGD, and what extra costs this may involve. What I am basically asking is whether modern lift technology is likely to make the field viable at the current or lower price of oil.
Cheers,
Eric

djpreston

9th Jun '11

Unfortunately I cant attend as its my 6 year old's birthday.... Mrs P would kill me.

patterbu

10th Jun '11

sorry to cry off again ( I did make 1 meeting in 2005 or 2006) but i is 8 000 miles+ and oh yes I have a tummy ache on that day and mum gave me a sick note
philip
sorry can not add anything useful to these discussions but am a v keen lurker, maybe because I have a he*l of of a lot of my money tied up in this company for a long time

philip

emptyend

16th Jun '11

Pity you won't be there Phil - I'll just have to come and see you again on the proceeds in due course ;-)

I'm certainly intending to be there - and ought to be, assuming my recovery over the next few days is as expected. I'm not expecting any particular revelations at the AGM though (unless there happens to be some news in the interim).

Good area of interest from Eric.....I'd hope that we may get more colour on what they really think of the potential of TGD now - and, more importantly, how to realise it!

cheers

emptyend

16th Jun '11

Just on the topic of the TGT asset, one thing I'd be really interested in is to see a full schedule of the results of the 10 wells drilled on the H1 fault block at TGT. They must by now have finished the TGT-8P well, to add to the first two explo wells. I think there is a vast amount of scope to have some upside surprises from TGT - though the question of when that might occur is, as ever, moot.

It is worth reminding ourselves of the production potential of the wells on the H1 fault block. TGT has some of the most valuable oil in the world (premium to Brent) and some of the most productive wells......I suspect that the market has rather forgotten that, as SOCO haven't been trumpetting reserves upgrades etc (even though, as previously noted, they are sure to have grounds for an upgrade after the PSDM reappraisal of the reservoir which has subsequently been validated by drilling).

The explo wells on that H1 block were the TGT-1X and TGT-2X.......and these were the RNSs:

TGT-1X:

The initial wildcat exploration well on the Te Giac Trang ("TGT") structure on the previously un-drilled "H" prospect on Block 16-1 offshore Vietnam, the TGT-1X, has tested water-free at a combined maximum rate of 9,432 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("BOEPD") comprised of 8,566 barrels per day (“BOPD”) of 37 degree API gravity crude and approximately 4.86 million cubic feet of gas per day through a 80/64 inch choke size.

The drill stem test was conducted from the Lower Bach Ho formation in the Miocene interval between 2701 metres and 2760 metres. The calculated net pay was approximately 31 metres (102 feet) over the test interval. An additional 33 metres (111 feet) of net pay interval were not perforated due to the limited equipment and materials available within the applicable time constraints. Based on the data from the well test, oil samples from wireline formation tests, and well logs, the untested interval is considered oil bearing and productive.

TGT-2X:

The TGT-2X appraisal well on the Te Giac Trang ("TGT") structure on Block 16-1 offshore Vietnam, an up dip follow-up well to last year’s TGT-1X discovery well, has completed testing with a total combined flow rate of approximately 17,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (“BOEPD”) from the Miocene Lower Bach Ho 5.2 and Oligocene “C” intervals.

Two main pay zones were perforated and tested within the Miocene Lower Bach Ho 5.2 interval, one between 2,763.5 and 2,817 metres and the other between 2,666.5 and 2,726.5 metres. A total of 89 metres of pay was confirmed by log analysis in this reservoir horizon.

The combined stabilised flow rate from the two Miocene zones was 14,053 BOEPD comprising 12,615 barrels of oil per day (“BOPD”) of 38 degree API gravity crude and approximately 8.63 million cubic feet of gas per day (“MMCFD”) through a one inch choke size. Flow rates were limited due to a mechanical failure in the surface separation equipment.

As was announced previously, the first drill stem test, over the Oligocene “C” interval, tested water-free at a stabilised rate of 3,300 BOPD of 37.5 degree API gravity crude and approximately 0.88 MMCFD day through a 52/64 inch choke size.

As was expected from the log analysis, water was produced from the lower set of perforations in the Miocene. The approximate 8% water cut has provided evidence of the presence of an aquifer, which will be factored into plans for the field’s depletion management.

A third reservoir horizon, the Lower Bach Ho 5.1, was also identified, but not tested as this would limit the ability to retain the well as a future producer, as originally designed. This horizon had 18 metres of net pay, and from the analysis of logs and oil samples from wireline formation tests, is considered to be oil-bearing and productive.

unwise2

20th Jun '11

EE I hope you will be at the AGM, I certainly will be and its looking like you owe me a pint!

I have to say I am a bit mystified as to why there has been no upgrade to reserves. As I have posted previously I realise that two key pieces of data are the volume of OIP and recovery factors. We don't have the second piece of data yet but there has been a significant change the first.

If you look at Soco's 2009 preliminary results presentation you can clearly see the difference on page 9 between the 2006 seismic and the 2009 seismic. Drill results to date have confirmed the 2009 interpretation. Take a look at the Jan 2011 presentation on page 10 and according to the 2006 seismic TGT-2P should have been a duster, which it clearly wasn't:

The second well, the TGT-H1-2P, encountered the reservoir section approximately 10 metres higher in the section than the pre-drill prognosis which strongly supports the favourable structural reservoir analysis following the reprocessed pre stack depth migrated seismic that the TGT field extends to the east.

I hope to get the opportunity to ask about this on Thursday, in addition to a few other questions I have.

emptyend

20th Jun '11

I have to say I am a bit mystified as to why there has been no upgrade to reserves. As I have posted previously I realise that two key pieces of data are the volume of OIP and recovery factors. We don't have the second piece of data yet but there has been a significant change the first.

If you look at Soco's 2009 preliminary results presentation you can clearly see the difference on page 9 between the 2006 seismic and the 2009 seismic. Drill results to date have confirmed the 2009 interpretation.

I've posted previously on an explanation of why there has been no upgrade. As you rightly point out, it wouldn't be difficult to justify an upgrade. Remember too that the company's line all the way along (ie BEFORE the 2009 reprocessing) has been that there would be 500mn bbls recoverable......and, IMO (but guessing), the seismic reprocessing points to a potential of 600mnbbls+. IIRC they have booked only half that amount......so we might be within months of effectively being able to claim a doubling of reserves at TGT.....

....of course, if such conjecture ever gets to be borne out by booked 2P numbers whilst the assets remain in SOCO's hands I will be rather surprised.....

kenobi

20th Jun '11

Hi Guys,

Just a word of warning to anyone planning to go to the AGM, previous years I had just sent an email the day before and been added to a list as an observer, this year I was asked to provide proof of share ownership (I've been 5 or 6 years on and off), so I was a little surprised,

Anyway a screen shot of a brokerage account was enough, but they say they are tightening up on these things,

I made a joke about the tea and biscuits not being that great, to make people pretend to be shareholders,
but like many of my jokes, I got the distinct impression she'd heard it all before.

anyway, I'm hoping to go, look forward to meeting up again,

K

peterg

20th Jun '11

Once again I'm not going to be able to make it up to London for the AGM. Rats! Perhaps there will be another next year for me to get to!

Have fun, and I look forward to reading the reports when I return.

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Soco AGM - June 23rd 2011: Attendance, Questions and Views?

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Murakami

109 comments

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