By exiting the Netherlands and refocusing on Canada, Northern has addressed the single fundamental issue affecting share price performance in recent years, a lack of operational progress across its key asset base. The investment thesis is now much stronger with a new board, €26m in cash and a tangible development programme in North West Alberta, while investors can retain option value in Italy and further afield. The story does not come without its challenges, specifically funding in H215 to progress Canada at a sensible rate, and navigating a potentially complicated farm-out process as well as regulatory approvals to drill offshore Italy. However, we consider the current share price is underpinned by only phase one of the Canada programme, so everything else is currently in for free.

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