The Altman Z-Score is a checklist for identifying stocks that might be at risk of bankruptcy. It was created by US finance Professor Edward Altman and detailed in a book he co-authored, called Managing Credit Risk. The Z-Score is a red flag indicator that can be used as a short selling strategy. It analyses five weighted business ratios to estimate the likelihood of financial distress. Broadly, these checks examine a company's asset, strength, profitability, solvency, efficiency and ability to generate earnings. Altman wrote: "The detection of company operating and financial difficulties is a subject which has been particularly amenable to analysis with financial ratios." Tests over 31 years to 1999 found the Z-Score to be 80-90% accurate in predicting bankruptcy one year prior to the event. The Z-Score is one of the components used in another short selling strategy: James Montier Trinity of Risk.
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Professor of Finance at NYU Stern School of Business. Best known for the development of the Z-Score.
Managing Credit Risk: The Great Challenge for Global Financial Markets
by John B. Caouette, Edward I. Altman, Paul Narayanan, Robert Nimmo
Its initial test by Altman found that it was 72% accurate in predicting bankruptcy two years prior to the event, while subsequent examination has shown 80-90% accuracy.
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| Returns |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
FTSE 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | -0.8% | 0.4% | -7.0% | -4.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | -0.8% | 0.8% |
| 1 month | -3.3% | -1.0% | -8.5% | -4.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% |
| 3 months | -7.9% | -3.7% | 6.9% | -6.4% | -2.4% | -4.8% | 14.0% | 2.9% |
| 6 months | -7.6% | 1.5% | 40.1% | -12.6% | 27.8% | -8.2% | 4.9% | 10.9% |
| 1 year | -19.9% | -13.5% | 8.3% | -19.8% | -24.1% | -32.7% | -7.8% | -3.5% |
| 2 years | -26.6% | -18.0% | 24.8% | -37.1% | -41.4% | -40.4% | -5.4% | -0.1% |
| Annualised | 1.9% | -1.0% | -3.5% | 0.4% | -12.0% | -16.4% | 3.8% | |
| Risks | ||||||||
| Max Drawdown | -32.3% | -38.2% | -46.5% | -52.3% | -58.5% | -50.8% | -35.8% | |
| Avg Holdings | 24.8 | 24.9 | 24.9 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | |
| Diversification | Good | Good | Good | Good | Good | Good | Good | |
