Bold Earnings Revisions Screen 0 Qualifying

Bold Earnings Revisions is a momentum strategy that aims to spot the hidden signals in analyst forecasts, which has been documented in research and explored further by Jack Hough in his book Your Next Great Stock. Specifically, it captures the 'earnings momentum' in shares where an analyst has recently made a bold upward change to their earnings forecasts. The strategy identifies stocks that have received an earnings forecast upgrade during the past month. It's then possible to scrutinise the list to determine whether the analyst is moving towards the consensus of analysts or away from it. Jack Hough says: "Keep in mind that the size of an estimate revision isn't what makes it bold. Rather, what matters is whether it moves away from the herd." Singling out one just one analyst upgrade won't tell you whether that analyst is moving away from the consensus or towards it. So check the list carefully.

To learn more about this strategy please click here »

Your Next Great Stock: How to Screen the Market for Tomorrow's Top Performers

by Jack Hough

Jack Hough outlines this apporach in his excellent book, "Your Next Great Stock" (see link above). He cites the performance of the AAII equivalent screen, Value on the Move - this has seen a 13.6% return since inception (vs. 1.1% for the S&P 500).

This screen uses the following criteria:

  • # 1w Upgrades == 1
  • # 1m Upgrades == 1
  • Rank ( Mkt Cap £m ) < 75%
  • # Brokers > 0

Results are sorted by:

  • % 1w EPS Upgrade FY2 in descending order

And limited to the first 200 Results

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Performance Tracking

Returns FTSE 100
1 week -2.1% -3.1% 0.9% -3.7% -2.0% -4.7% 2.1% -2.7%
1 month -1.5% -0.0% 3.6% -3.5% -3.8% -5.2% 11.0% -3.9%
3 months 8.5% 2.9% 19.0% 4.9% 11.3% 9.3% 22.8% 7.4%
6 months 6.0% 6.9% 20.8% -2.1% -10.4% 16.5% -13.1% -0.6%
1 year 5.2% 10.4% 14.2% 52.8% -8.8% 26.1% 4.5% 1.5%
2 years 15.0% 47.6% 67.6% 89.7% -28.1% 142.2% 48.6% 21.4%
Annualised 10.5% 15.4% 19.7% 37.1% -12.1% 45.5% 42.5%
Max Drawdown -25.6% -21.3% -24.2% -35.2% -47.5% -14.3% -46.0%
Avg Holdings 16.3 22.5 22.7 2.8 4.5 14.9 3.1
Diversification Good Good Good Low Low Moderate Low

 Studies based on equal weighted portfolios of max 25 stocks rebalanced quarterly. Qualifying shares below updated daily. Past performance not indicative of future returns.

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0 Qualifying

Ticker Name Mkt Cap £m # 1w Upgrades # 1m Upgrades # Brokers % 1w EPS Upgrade FY2 Sector Flag

Can't see the share you expect? View this screen as a checklist to find out why.

You should consider the results of any screening process, including this one, as candidates for further research, not as a buy list. Screening helps to narrow a search based on pre-defined criteria. It is not a substitute for independent research reflecting your individual criteria for investing/trading. Please note that the screening criteria used represents Stockopedia's interpretation of the author's investment approach and are not determined or endorsed by the original strategist.

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