By Marcelo Rochabrun
SAO PAULO, May 28 (Reuters) - LATAM Airlines LTM.SN and
Avianca Holdings AVT_p.CN survived the Great Depression, but
just a few weeks of quarantines forced both companies into
bankruptcy, marking Latin America as the world's top spot for
airline financial ruin.
Their bankruptcy filings this month are now set to have a
ripple effect on United Airlines UAL.O and Delta Air Lines
DAL.N , whose untimely bets on the future of Latin American air
travel could cost them billions.
Hopes for a taxpayer rescue in the region are fading fast
and the bankruptcies show that even Latin America's two largest
carriers are not immune to collapse, even as many airlines in
the United States and Europe have received government aid.
Both LATAM and Avianca said they will continue flying as
they restructure their debts in bankruptcy court.
LATAM alone accounts for 40% of passengers traveling within
Latin America and its bankruptcy startled many investors while
dealing a fresh blow to Airbus AIR.PA , which counts LATAM and
Avianca as top clients.
"The air travel sector will not survive without government
help," Jerome Cadier, LATAM's Brazil CEO, told Reuters.
He has been in bailout talks for two months and counting,
while much of Latin America's air space remains subject to heavy
travel restrictions, even as other parts of the world reopen.
Latin America was already the world's least profitable
region for carriers before the crisis, hurt by volatile
currencies, high taxes and a crippling recession in its biggest
economy, Brazil.
Still, it has long been viewed as a region of great
potential, enough so to tempt Delta and United into spending
mightily to unseat American Airlines AAL.O as the top U.S.
carrier for travel to Latin America.
'STRATEGIC COMPANY'
Delta bought 20% of LATAM in December while United struck a
partnership with Avianca in 2018, but only after agreeing to
finance the personal business interests of its Bolivian-born
owner.
Three billion dollars later, both U.S. carriers still lack
clearance to coordinate flights with their partners. At today's
prices, Delta could buy LATAM almost four over with the money it
spent on its small stake. United could buy Avianca over 20
times.
If you had invested $100 in Avianca at the beginning of this
year, you would have $6.50 today. At its height LATAM boasted of
being the world's second airline by market value.
Partly due to LATAM's size, analysts say, the company's
shares did not fall as much in the leadup to the bankruptcy as
those of its peers.
"These were speculators betting on a bailout," said Cristian
Araya of Chilean brokerage Vantrust Capital.
Chile, where millions collectively own 15% of LATAM through
retirement funds, this week declared it a "strategic company"
but stopped short of rescuing it. Colombia has made no such
noises about Avianca.
Combined, LATAM and Avianca still employ over 60,000 people,
although most of them are either earning half their usual
paycheck or none at all.
EMERGENCY MEETINGS
On Monday, LATAM's board sat for its 10th emergency meeting
since April to formalize the bankruptcy decision. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL4N2D819G
The announcement stunned many, with shares of the airline
falling more than 60% since Tuesday.
Earlier this week, Raymond James analysts still had an
"outperform" rating on the stock, predicting LATAM's shares
would double and calling its debt "manageable."
But LATAM's cash crunch and debt crisis were more severe
than previously known, according to its bankruptcy filing.
The airline had missed debt payments, scaring banks and
aircraft lessors. It had already spent its emergency credit line
back in April. Shareholders had overruled LATAM's board to pay
themselves dividends the airline could not afford.
Without a bankruptcy filing, LATAM would have had to pay
some $200 million in expenses by next week, almost a third of
the total cash held by the airline's subsidiaries participating
in the bankruptcy.
At the same time, Delta abandoned a prior agreement to buy
four Airbus A350 planes that LATAM did not want, paying a fee
worth only a fraction of the aircraft's price. LATAM wants to
immediately return 15 Airbus planes, Avianca another 8.
"In hindsight I think what we missed is that (LATAM) really
needs to become a much smaller airline," Savanthi Syth, an
analyst at Raymond James, said in an interview.
Cadier told Reuters he expects LATAM to shrink by up to 40%,
which will include layoffs.
In a note downgrading LATAM after the bankruptcy, Raymond
James said it had good news about Brazil rivals Gol Linhas
Aereas Inteligentes GOLL4.SA , Azul SA AZUL.N and Panamanian
Copa Holdings CPA.N .
"We do not expect similar (bankruptcy) filings," it said.
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(Reporting by Marcelo Rochabrun in Sao Paulo; Additional
reporting by Tracy Rucinski and Fabian Cambero
Editing by Christian Plumb and Matthew Lewis)
((marcelo.rochabrun@thomsonreuters.com; +55 11 5644 7768;))