* Prices up more than 20% this month
* Supply deficits expected
* Demand from auto makers to increase
* Hydrogen economy could use lots of platinum
* Rally may falter in near term
By Peter Hobson
LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Platinum has broken out of more
than a decade of price weakness to reach its highest since 2014,
as investors anticipate that rising demand, including from the
budding hydrogen industry, will surpass supply and support a
lasting rally.
Years of oversupply and weak demand for platinum, used by
auto makers, industry and jewellers, dragged prices from $2,290
an ounce in 2008 to $558 last year.
But prices XPT= have rebounded as the global economy
started to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and gained more
than 20% this month to above $1,300.
"I can see further price increases coming," said Bank of
America analyst Michael Widmer, saying the market would see
large deficits from 2023 and platinum could mimic palladium,
which surged because of consistent undersupply.
"Look at palladium - you had a 10-year bear market (from
2001) - and then prices moved up by 1500%."
Auto makers account for around 40% of annual platinum demand
of around 8 million ounces, embedding it in exhaust pipes to
neutralise harmful emissions.
Manufactures have for years preferred palladium and rhodium
for the task, but high prices of those two metals have begun to
push many back to platinum, Johnson Matthey said in a report.
urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2KG11I
Analysts at Citi expect auto makers to use around 800,000
ounces less palladium and 800,000 ounces more platinum by the
end of 2022, reducing total palladium demand by 8% and
increasing total platinum demand by 10%.
Tighter Chinese emissions rules and higher sales will
meanwhile raise the use of platinum in heavy duty vehicles by
50% this year alone, Johnson Matthey said.
Over the longer term, a shift from gasoline and diesel will
reduce demand for platinum to clean exhaust fumes.
But an alternative to fossil fuels is hydrogen, and platinum
is used in electrolysers to make hydrogen and fuel cells using
it to power cars, trains and ships.
Demand for platinum in fuel cell-powered vehicles could rise
to 2-4 million ounces a year by 2030, Bank of America's Widmer
said.
Investors are taking note, ramping up their bets on higher
prices in U.S. futures markets and stockpiling bars in exchange
traded funds. 1076651NNET
But with big deficits still a couple of years away they may
be unable to maintain recent momentum.
"We now see signs of speculative excess," said Carsten
Fritsch at Commerzbank, suggesting prices may need to fall in
the near term.
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Platinum's rebound https://tmsnrt.rs/3rXsewH
Looming undersupply https://tmsnrt.rs/2NufLBT
Auto makers prefer palladium https://tmsnrt.rs/2ZhEwUz
Platinum speculators https://tmsnrt.rs/3jUGRxT
Platinum ETFs and price https://tmsnrt.rs/3b4QaHK
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(Reporting by Peter Hobson; editing by Pratima Desai and
Barbara Lewis)
((Peter.Hobson@thomsonreuters.com; +44 207 542 0083;))