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Reuters Insider - UK Week Ahead: Brexit swings into focus as Conservative Party conference kicks off; PMIs

Click the following link to watch video: https://share.insider.thomsonreuters.com/link?entryId=1_bfd06gol&referenceId=1_bfd06gol&pageId=ReutersNews
Source: Reuters Insider

Description: Brexit under the spotlight once more as UK Prime Minister Theresa
May heads to Birmingham for the annual Conservative Party conference. Watch
out for global manufacturing PMI business surveys. Plus, the Paris car show
kicks off, but Volkswagen's core brand will not be present. 
Plus, Tesco
reports. 
Short Link: https://reut.rs/2Im5KzO

Video Transcript:

Good afternoon. I'm Angeline Ong, and welcome to your insight into the week
ahead. Six months to go until the UK is due to leave the European Union and we
are still no clearer as to what Britain might look like after March 29. UK
Prime Minister Theresa May's negotiations with EU leaders have stalled. And
even if she cuts a deal with the EU, she'll still have to get it through
Parliament, which is looking very tricky given the divisions within her own
party. The Labour Party has also said they'll vote down any deal that's based
on May's Chequer's plan. Now, with this as a backdrop, May's Conservative
Party kicks off the conference- the annual conference in Birmingham this
Sunday. Watch out for her rivals like former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson,
who is likely to use the event to make their leadership pitch to grassroots
members. Johnson wants the UK to "chuck Chequers" and negotiate a "Super
Canada" free trade deal instead. So, are we any clearer now on Brexit or are
domestic politics clouding the issues even more? Earlier, we spoke to Fabiana
Fedeli, Robeco's Global Head of Fundamental Equities. She says the lack of
progress means the risk of a no-deal Brexit remains uncomfortably high.
 br/  br/ A no-deal Brexit, in our opinion, would be irresponsible. So we
would possibly expect at this point some kind of backstop deal on the Irish
border and then what would you call a "blind Brexit" and this would allow for
more time to negotiate the details. But we would really hope that a no-deal
will not happen.  br/  br/ Now, after the Conservative Party conference, the
next diary date is October 18. That's when May meets her EU counterparts and
the European Commission to try and seal a deal on the terms on Britain's
withdrawal. Don't hold your breath though. Well, it's the end of the third
quarter. Let's take a look at how markets stand as we head into the close. The
FTSEurofirst 300 is down about a 0.25%, DAX down 1.5%, and the FTSE, actually
down 0.25% now, and the FTSEurofirst 300 is down 0.75%. European equities look
set to end the quarter up around 1.4%. This compares with gains of more than
7% for the S&P 500 and almost 9% for the Dow Jones. For the month though,
we've had some interesting findings from Reuters' asset allocation poll.
Investors raised their European equity exposure by 1.5 percentage points to
19.5%, a four-month high. Asset managers also boosted their exposure to US
stocks by 2 percentage points to 42.7%. But many cut their exposure to
emerging-market assets, where a majority believed the shake-out still has some
way to go. Plenty of risk events on the economy diary in the week ahead. On
Monday, we've got manufacturing PMI business surveys from around the world.
From Germany and Spain, look out for retail sales. Then on Tuesday, we get
producer price figures from the Eurozone. On Wednesday, there are global
service sector PMI business surveys for September. And we end the week with
German industrial orders and trade and budget data from France. On the
corporate diary in the week ahead, there's quite a retail theme. Tesco reports
first-half results on Wednesday. Watch out what the UK's biggest retailer says
about Jack's, its new discount chain that it claims will be the cheapest in
town, taking on German discounters. Aldi reports full-year results on Monday.
And finally, if fast and flash cars are your thing, the Paris Car Show kicks
off on Tuesday. The usual big auto brands will be showing off their latest
offerings, but not Volkswagen's Core brand. Europe's biggest auto group has
scaled back at traditional car shows, including in Detroit and Frankfurt,
since the VW emissions scandal erupted in 2015. VW's move also mirrors a wider
sector trend, as carmakers rethink how they spend their marketing budgets. And
that's it for now. I'm Angeline Ong, and this is Reuters
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