A gas play?

27th Jan '22 by Gilgamesh_Investor

9 comments 1087 reads

I have been reading a lot about the Russia-Ukraine relations recently, in particular trying to gauge the situation from the Russian perspective to see if it is possible to predict the next move.

I have noticed that the Financial Times have done an article “ECB warns European Lenders on Russia Sanctions and Risks”

All this has me thinking about what if Russia decided to pose sanctions on Europe for mineral exports? Or just decided to stop a large proportion of them all together, that would leave Europe in a very difficult situation with regards to energy in the short-term which could see further momentum in the energy market.

Does anybody have an eye on any particular energy/oil plays that they think could play out positively in the current political climate? I think it may also be interesting to hear others perspectives, although I appreciate this is an investment forum and not a political forum so ideally any political issues relating towards investment topics would be preferable rather than this turning into a West vs Easy political debate.

I have noticed that IC have pointed towards Serica Energy (LON:SQZ) and Harbour Energy (LON:HBR) as recommendations to consider.

Thanks
GI

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bullhead

27th Jan '22

Personally I don’t think many people in the west really understand why Russia is acting like it is or really understand Eastern Europe everything is coloured by the past and never more so than when it comes to Russia this link gives a small insight maybe

http://gorhistory.com/hist111/...

Even a basic understanding of the war on the eastern Front in the Second World War will give an understanding of why Russia wants a buffer between itself and NATO

All we are doing is pushing Russia closer to China

“Don’t poke the bear and expect it to lie still”

When it comes to oil energy plays as I have stated before I like Jadestone energy here is their latest trading update from this morning

https://www.jadestone-energy.c...

IncredibleMosesLeroy

Buy Gazprom (LON:OGZD) - On a forward PE of 1.3 and price to book of 0.45

Nordstream 2 will be important, but better yet Russia has completed a pipeline to China, which will shield them from Nordstream 2 cancellation fallout.

Russia/Ukraine situation is creating bargain bin opportunities. Ferrexpo is another (LON:FXPO)

Breakout Trader

Indeed.

For Russia, Ukraine is a very important area strategically. Russia was desperate to keep hold of the crimea because of it's importance to them in winter, when most of their northern ports and gateways to sea are frozen... not sure many people are aware of that. Its a problem that just doesn't exist for the US or the majority of European nations.

The west knows this, which is why there wasn't such a strong reaction when Russia took the Crimea.

Russia doesn't want NATO on its borders, and they don't understand or appreciate the eastwards expansion of NATO. That's why Russia is pushing for this condition that Ukraine should not be allowed to join.

Geopolitics is a big, continuous game of Chess, where all manner of tactics are used. Ukraine is a pawn in it all, unfortunately for them.

Rusty2

My comment got lost, so briefly I would avoid Harbour Energy (LON:HBR), consider Serica Energy (LON:SQZ), also Gazprom Pao (LON:OGZD) if you are comfortable with the Russian Govt owning 50%.

I don't hold any of those but have held Serica Energy (LON:SQZ) in the past and may rebuy.

Alphaflight

28th Jan '22

Crimea has been part of Russia since they took it from the Ottomans in the 18th century. Ukraine had a democratically elected Russian-friendly government under Viktor Yanukovych until the US staged coup d'etat in 2014 replaced him with a puppet government.

TangoDoc

28th Feb '22

I think we may now reasonably assume from the way Ukrainians are fighting for their country against heavy odds, that they don't consider their government to be any sort of puppet imposed on them by the USA in 2014.

DIYinvestor

13th Jul '22

For what it's worth, I've added my thoughts on Harbour Energy [£HBR] here: noting that I hold a small position (based on my own research and interpretation of publicly available information).

An ETF such as XES "SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF" would do very well if capex ever flows back into the sector.

At the moment the big 5 oil companies are not interested in looking for more oil because their cost of capital (thanks to COP26 et al) is sky high and of course at the same time they are being told by woke governments that oil & gas will be phased out in the future...

A gas play?

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Gilgamesh_Investor

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