Can I CAN-SLIM? 14 - 18/3/18

Monday, Mar 19 2018 by
8

Let's get straight to it - the CAN-SLIMesque guru screen...


Guru Screen Review

Sometimes this is easy, with only 4 or 5 hits on the screen - this week we have 16!

Plus500 (LON:PLUS)

Herbie47 mentioned last week it is close to dropping out - still there for now, lost ground this week.

Globaltrans Investment (LON:GLTR)

Watching for now - I missed the breakout, I expect that last week's slight price drop is natural profit taking after a good rally the week before.

TCS Holding (LON:TCS)

NEW Entry Russian banking - looks good but, I don't want to have heavy exposure to Russia in the current political climate!

Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR)

My old favourite - I sold these back in September, anticipating the pullback, I didn't re-enetr in January, perhaps I should have. I attended the UK Investor show in April last year. They asked for volunteers to go on the stage with the legendary shorter Evil Kinievel (Simon Cawkwell). The prize was a bottle of rum - just for going on the stage. Well, I'm partial to the odd Cuba Libre, so I was up like a flash - £20 of rum just for sitting on the stage! There were 12 of us and we were all given a shot of tonic. We drank, then were given a second glass of tonic. We had to rate which one we liked the best. Out of 12 people, 10 preferred Tonic A (that turned out to be fever tree), 1 person preferred tonic B (Schweppes) and 1 though they were both no good without the vodka! Clearly Fevertree tastes better to most people. Evil's point was that the only difference is the botanicals - these are a tiny part of the cost of producing tonic water and he argued that Schweppes (or someone else) at any moment could make a similar tasting tonic and add some serious competition, so he was shorting them.  I see his point, but everywhere I go in the world I see Fevertree more and more. I'd be interested to see how their cola sales are going - I have a feeling  Rum and Coke is the new G&T.  And in case you don't believe me, there I am second from the right in the black shirt! And there is my free bottle of rum on the table on the right...

5aaededdc6630Screen_Shot_2018-03-18_at_2

Oh and the share - great spike in volume last week only the weekly total, a massive correction, that would have shaken me out if I had bought, but strong recovery later in the week. I need to look into this more. The first half of this week will be an interesting story.

Kaz Minerals (LON:KAZ)

Last week I wrote "could be a base forming. Not sure yet if this is natural sideways action or the start  of Stage 3. Increasing broker support. One to watch." Nothing much more to add. VCP?

Tatneft' PAO (LON:ATAD)

I don't follow this one. Not ISA eligible.

Robert Walters (LON:RWA)

Read Glorenfeld And Herbie47's comments on this last week. Possible VCP? I was worried about the regular high volume down days, but there does seem to be an upward tightening in the price. And certainly impressive 2017 results.

Gamma Communications (LON:GAMA)

The moment I buy this it stalls - hopefully just a bit of profit taking - my timing was new days off on this... 

IG Group (LON:IGG)

The last 8 weeks have had increased volume, but limited movement in price. Possible attempted break out last week? very high volume on the 16/3 with a slightly negative impact on price.

Abcam (LON:ABC)

W/C 11/3 had very strong volume. Possible top of the cup in a base - 7 weeks in. Watch for now.

Numis (LON:NUM)

Possible profit taking after recent rally. My timing was terrible - Never listen to me!

Morgan Sindall (LON:MGNS)

50 day MA well below the 150 and 200. Wait and see on this one.

Avon Rubber (LON:AVON)

From 2010 to 2015, this has been spectacular, 2015 to date has been more volatile. Golden cross on the 150/200 day ma recently, but on the red weeks have had very high volume. Is this about to start another stratospheric rise? I'm not so sure, but one to watch.

ASOS (LON:ASC)

ah... the time to buy this (if not 2015 or 2010!) would have been 13 weeks ago

Gresham Technologies (LON:GHT)

Possible 25 week base? Alternatively, this has moved into stage 3. The 50 day MA is pretty much in line with the 150 day, show how long this has been hanging around the 170 to 200p area... On a positive note, the normalised EPS has moved in to new territories, not seen in recent years. I'm not ready for this yet, but I will monitor.

Spirax-Sarco Engineering (LON:SPX)

I'm very familiar with this company as an end user in my day job (manufacturing). They fit the "leader" part of CAN-SLIM perfectly being THE brand name in steam equipment. Watson-Marlow (sub division) make excellent and innovative dosing pumps, in fact I ordered one only last week. Good set of results last Thursday. I'm keeping a very close eye on this.




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Plus500 Ltd is an Israel-based online provider of Contracts for Difference (CFDs). The Company develops and operates an online trading platform for retail customers to trade CFDs internationally over more than 2,200 different underlying global financial instruments comprising equities, indices, commodities, options, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and foreign exchange. The Company enables retail customers to trade CFDs in more than 50 countries and in over 30 languages. The Company's trading platform is accessible from multiple operating systems, such as Windows, smartphones (iOS, Android and Windows Phone), tablets (iOS, Android and Surface), Apple Watch and web browsers. The Company conducts operations in the European Economic Area (EEA), Gibraltar, Australia and certain other jurisdictions across Asia, the Middle East and elsewhere. Its subsidiaries include Plus500UK, Plus500AU, Plus500CY and Plus500IL. more »

LSE Price
1360p
Change
9.0%
Mkt Cap (£m)
1,422
P/E (fwd)
6.5
Yield (fwd)
12.6

Globaltrans Investment PLC is a Cyprus-based holding company. The Company is engaged in the provision of railway transportation services using own and leased rolling stock, as well as fleet engaged from third party rail operators, operating lease of rolling stock and freight forwarding (agency) services. The Company through its subsidiaries provides freight rail transportation, railcar leasing and certain ancillary services to clients in Russia, the CIS countries and the Baltics. The Company focuses on the transportation of key industrial freight, including metallurgical cargoes, oil products and oil, coal, and various construction materials. The Company offers railcar leasing in Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. The Company's total fleet consists of around 65,448 units, which include Gondola cars, Rail tank cars, Hopper cars and Locomotives. more »

LSE Price
$10.18
Change
-1.2%
Mkt Cap (£m)
1,409
P/E (fwd)
7.3
Yield (fwd)
13.0

Fevertree Drinks plc is a United Kingdom-based holding and investment company. The Company is a developer and supplier of premium mixer drinks. The Company's premium mixers consist of a range of all natural carbonated mixers, including Tonics, Ginger Ale, Ginger Beer, Bitter Lemon and Lemonades. The Company sells a range of products under the Fever-Tree brand, which include Indian Tonic Water, Naturally Light Tonic Water, Elderflower Tonic Water, Mediterranean Tonic Water, Ginger Ale, Ginger Beer, Naturally Light Ginger Beer, Bitter Lemon, Sicilian Lemonade, Lemonade, Spring Soda Water and Premium Cola. The Company caters to hotels, restaurants, bars and cafes, as well as supermarkets. The Company sells its products to a range of markets, such as the United Kingdom, Europe and North America. more »

LSE Price
2676p
Change
-4.4%
Mkt Cap (£m)
3,251
P/E (fwd)
50.8
Yield (fwd)
0.5



  Is LON:PLUS fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


14 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

herbie47 23rd Mar 1 of 14
2

Due to the market fall yesterday, I see only 12  shares are selected for the CAN-SLIM screen today, there were 17 yesterday. Countryside Properties (LON:CSP) only lasted 1 day. Plus500 (LON:PLUS) as I hinted last week could fall out. Spirax-Sarco Engineering (LON:SPX) has gone after a short stay. Gamma Communications (LON:GAMA) has fallen out because of EPS Gwth % Q on Q = 3.15. ASOS (LON:ASC) has also gone. 

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maffs0 24th Mar 2 of 14
4

I bought some IG Group (LON:IGG) just over a week ago at £8.30 and after a brief pullback, bought some more at £8.38. I've set my stop loss at £7.70. I feel this one needs to move up quickly from here and get some traction, but I like the tight price action prior to the results and the price action on Friday was quite encouraging.

The other one I bought just last week was Robert Walters (LON:RWA). I bought some on Tuesday at £6.70 and will top up if it breaks out above £6.92. Stop is set at £6.14. The problem with this is the tiny daily volume so the big spikes don't concern me too much as it could just be a PI taking some profit. I do, however, wonder if there is much institutional sponsorship here at all. We'll see.

Overall, I'm fairly neutral on the market at the moment. I can see it bouncing back strongly or continuing a slow decline. I'm about 50% invested, but have raised quite a bit of cash last week.

M.

PS. Nice photo by the way!

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matylda 24th Mar 3 of 14
1

Thanks for the regular posts they are much appreciated - Just a suggestion and it's a slight overhead - maybe you could tag the stocks too when posting - then when checking discussion your comments can be seen - Thanks again

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poughtibridge 25th Mar 4 of 14

In reply to post #344713

Thanks Matylda, you know, the reason why I hadn't was because I was a bit embarrassed by the quality of my analysis and writing compared to you, Paul Graham etc... I was going to start tagging when I thought I had achieved a good enough standard. But even if my writing is not up to scratch, I guess tagging gives an anchor for comments, so I'll start from now. Thanks for the feedback! And thanks for your daily briefing - it is very useful.

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poughtibridge 25th Mar 5 of 14

In reply to post #344673

I've treated my self to some IG Group (LON:IGG) too. 770 looks like a sensible stop - just below the most recent support. I was pleasantly surprised how well it held up during last week's market turmoil.

Thanks for highlighting the Robert Walters (LON:RWA) tiny volumes - I missed that because, I was just looking at the trend, not the absolute figures.

I totally agree with you on the final point. I'm thinking about writing about the M of CAN-SLIM next post... I'm about 70% invested but thinking of reducing it until the market direction becomes clearer.

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matylda 26th Mar 6 of 14
2

In reply to post #345038

Your quality contribution is welcomed and appreciated by me and I am sure many others - Tagging would for sure be most welcome and valuable in my opinion.

And thanks for the kind words, glad it is useful to you.

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letap73 27th Mar 7 of 14

It looks like the ESMA regulations will hit IG Group (LON:IGG) more than Plus500 (LON:PLUS)500:

https://financefeeds.com/ig-group-voices-disappointment-severe-cfd-leverage-restrictions-outlined-esma/

I imagine in the short to medium term it looks like PLUS500 has now become a better bet than IGG?

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maffs0 27th Mar 8 of 14
1

I was stopped out of IG Group (LON:IGG) before it bounced back powerfully. I might get back in if it tightens up over the next few days or weeks.

Robert Walters (LON:RWA) hit my buy stop of £6.94 so I doubled up on this one. It does look very promising technically.

I'm now only in 4 stocks and getting more bearish on the market by the day.

M.

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letap73 11th Apr 9 of 14

ASOS (LON:ASC) are taking a tanking this morning - circa 10+% drop.
Revenues up 27% - apparently very slightly down on forecasts.
I wonder if this will do a Computacenter (LON:CCC) and shake a few holders out of their positions before going back up...............

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herbie47 11th Apr 10 of 14

In reply to post #352153

Only down 4% now.

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letap73 11th Apr 11 of 14

In reply to post #352288

It was down 13% when I saw it - needless to say it has thrown a few people out of their positions.
Not surprised it has nearly closed the gap - a good one for the gap traders out there.

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herbie47 11th Apr 12 of 14

In reply to post #352323

Yes probably this is the problem with auto stop losses. Many shares have a dip down on results. Some sell out before.

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maffs0 12th Apr 13 of 14
9

Maybe the most important thing about rules based investing is that you stick to the rules! Otherwise it is pointless having them. I sold ASOS (LON:ASC) at a 7% loss yesterday only to see it recover past my sell point. Now Of course that's frustrating, but my sell wasn't "wrong". Sure, I could have waited and sold at a better price or held on and pretended that the stop hadn't been hit or made excuses about it being results day. One of the things that O'Neil and Minervini both say in their books is that failing to stick to your rules and getting rewarded for it is one of the most dangerous things that can happen to you. 

My take is that if you are going to adopt a rules based system, stick to the rules because over the long haul (assuming they are good rules properly implemented) you will succeed.

M.

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herbie47 12th Apr 14 of 14

In reply to post #352638

Minervini would have sold out before the results anyway which is not something I generally do, trading costs here are much higher and on small caps the spread is much wider than US midcaps. In good companies I want to keep hold of shares I don't to be buying and selling all the time. Shares like Burford Capital (LON:BUR) I would have lost out big time. Minervini trading is quite a bit different to ours, he is buying/selling large amounts. I think all we can do is adapt some of his rules to suit our own trading. Minervini average loss on losing shares was only 4% which indicates he is selling well before a stop loss is triggered. I did try using auto stop losses but they did not work for me, got stopped out too many times, only to see the shares price bounce back up, IG Design (LON:IGR) cost me over 100% in only a few months.

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