Hello

WARNING: Don't take any reassurance from what I say/think...our unusual situation means markets could drop fast any time....this may be a new great depression. I think otherwise and at the moment I  believe (guess!) the odds are we finish near or above end of 2019 level. I know! Sounds madly dissonant...read on...

I've been quiet during the crisis as it intensified as wanted to retreat into my own zen-bs rather than that of others and wasn't enjoying all the anxious prophesying out there. I mean I often felt like an idiot so didn't need some wise ass telling me I'm an idiot on top. A problem that is particularly acute on Twitter....where there's an awful lot of really really wise people calling it perfectly....

TBH I'm naturally tinged bearish due to tendency to scepticism but I am also naturally a bit contrary and disagreeable too...so when everyone gets bearish that can bug me just as much as when everyone's bullish! I know, what a pain I am. I do find myself awkward to deal with at times.

Coming into 2020 I thought US market was very richly priced and probably considerably overvalued. I thought UK, Europe and Japan were relatively cheap. I don't really believe in anything as quaint as fair value...TBC when anyone of us talks about fair value we're bullshitting. What hubris to think we'd know...if such a measure existed then we wouldn't spend 99% of our time more than +/-10% from it. Capiche?!

I held about 12% cash when the S.H.T.F. ....I sold out of a few things pretty quickly (some Argentine and Brazilian stuff particularly) and then some oil stuff that I had bought before the Saudi-Russian thermonuclear standoff. I might go back to the oil and did speculate small amounts in some E&P at the recent bottoms but withdrew from that (with small profit) on the basis it wasn't time to take a bigger position and can see risk-return at better scale elsewhere. Going into this I held some stuff that many of you (I'm assuming a quality growth and momentum bias) would have labelled dull or crap. Dull and crap got hammered too so much for me trying to bob when market weaves. Doh! (NB in 2000-3 and 2007-9 bear markets I made money...the recent sell off was a harder gig than those IMO)

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