FDEV: Is it too late?

30th Aug '17 by runthejoules

27 comments 8424 reads

It's been up by about 10% a day since the announcement it will be making Jurassic World, almost 100% since SHARES tipped it. Obviously wish I'd bought on the day but am now scared of sitting on a massive spike. Sure sales look like they'll be huge, but there are no details on how much FDEV will make from this game, and how much Universal. A successful ADVFN BB Chartist has a target of 1217p - but stock is tightly held, so could it plummet on stock-taking or on any disappointment at all on upcoming results (Sept 7th). Any thoughts from games industry or other investors? (Not intended as advice, dyor etc of course).Ta.

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Runthejoules

Premium Member

27 comments

Rusty2

30th Aug '17

Well it's down about 7% today although seems to have leveled off around 1075p, not sure why Stockopedia is showing it's up 4.8% at 1195p.

Are we too late, I'm not sure it has been on my watchlist for a while, felt I have missed out, but I'm tempted to make a small investment around 1080p.

seismo101a

30th Aug '17

I purchased into FDEV in June, and then did quite a large topup at then end of July. What with the subsequent gains, 40% of my portfolio has been in FDEV.

I’d been wrestling in the last few days as to whether it had overreached, or would continue upward. Today’s drop, didn’t hit my manually created trailing stop loss, but the fear of losing out on some great gains got the better of me, so I sold 50% today. I’m hoping I don’t need to sell the other 50% as I feel FDEV have a great future. Don’t know how it will play out short term (i.e. return to an upward trend, or create a base, or drop like stone), but long term I feel this is a great stock.

FDEV’s main titles of Elite Dangerous, and Planet Coaster show that they can make great games. So I feel the 2018 dinosaur title is in good hands. The door opening into China with Tencent investing in Frontier is all good news (one of the previous positive jumps in price was on the news of this).

ricky65

30th Aug '17

I can't answer your question, only give my opinion.

I think it's looking very extended in the short term. Taking the 620-660p base earlier this month as the last base and considering the price as of writing, 1037p, it's up over 50% from the base.

JohnEustace

30th Aug '17

I bought in a whole month ago on the news that Tencent were taking a stake. That left Frontier well funded and with enhanced access to the Chinese market. I doubled up at start of trading after the Jurassic Park announcement.

It may, appropriately, be a real roller coaster of a ride but I'm staying strapped in.

tomg23

7th Sep '17

Nice set of results this morning as expected. Bought back in today and think with the ramped up development of major titles being release (1 every year, rather than every 2 years), this share could reach 1500p in a few months

unwise2

7th Sep '17

I think this share is difficult to call over the next 6-9 months, its just announced stonking results and I expect Jurassic world will boost earnings heavily. However the next trading year will see no new releases and earnings will rely on sales of the existing 2 titles and paid for expansion packs. I expect EPS to be lower for the current trading year before moving far higher next year. This was refered to in today's RNS:

"We anticipate that the next step-up in our financial performance will be delivered by the launch of Jurassic World Evolution in summer 2018"

"The Board therefore anticipates that trading in the current financial year, the twelve months ending 31 May 2018, will principally be based on sales from the Elite Dangerous and Planet Coaster franchises."

The question I can't answer is will the excitement surrounding the launch of Jurassic world keep the share price up where it is or higher?

runthejoules

7th Sep '17

@unwise2 Unless I've got confused they will have the next two franchises to announce. If they're both with universal they could be huge, Minions perhaps. But could be a year away, sure.

Depends if TenCent launches/pushes the existing games in China. (More work for Keywords!)

unwise2

7th Sep '17

Agree the announcement of next two titles could support the S.P but the timing of those is completely unknown.

lightningtiger

7th Sep '17

With profits up 550% from the results out today I would have expected a bigger price rise than 8% at the time of writing but I think it has a lot further to go yet. I am not complaining.

runthejoules

8th Sep '17

Well, it's worked out alright so far, up about 18%, but given it's been vertical for two days and you don't know whether Florida or Korea will be there on Monday I topsliced a little near the close. Wondering how many people have bought back in?

Carey Blunt

8th Sep '17

Congratulations to holders here. One point for investors to keep an eye out for might be the release of x4 from egosoft which I think will be a big competitor to Elite: Dangerous. X4 is probably some way off release and Frontier Developments (LON:FDEV) have updates to Elite planned but maybe something to watch if the growth rates of Elite subscribers start to slow down, stall or reverse as x4 is released.

roddy10

10th Sep '17

The following re Tencent may be of relevance - https://www.polygon.com/2017/4/17/15326258/steam-competitor-tencent-games-platform-wegame-download

In essence Tencent launching WeGame to compete with Steam

Rusty2

14th Sep '17

Some large falls in the last day, down over 20%, I take it this is due to the new competition?

Nick Ray

14th Sep '17

These things are relative though. A stock which can rise 25% in a week can surely fall 20% in two days.

runthejoules

14th Sep '17

Do you mean X4 Herbie?

Rusty2

14th Sep '17

I was referring to Tencent as in the link above, I don't know what x4 is.

ricky65

14th Sep '17

As often happens, steep gradient on the way up, steep gradient on the way down.

runthejoules

14th Sep '17

Herbie, TenCent are bought into FDEV, so the TenCent thing is good news. Haven't checked out X4 footage yet to see if that's a catalyst but they do have a VR version which all future games will need, but their cross-engine-platform whose name escapes me should provide this. Also the fact a Director bought at the peak. So I think we will slowly creep back up. I'm currently underwater except for my topslice but I knew the risks when I bought in - fast up, fast down, tightly held, which long term is a good thing (Directors & founder skin in the 'game').

Rusty2

14th Sep '17

OK I understand, not familiar with all the names. Shares have bounced back a bit now.

runthejoules

5th Nov '19

Frontier Developments (LON:FDEV) seem to be doing well with Planet Zoo. 95% positive reviews on Steam & 1st & 2nd top seller in UK.

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FDEV: Is it too late?

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Runthejoules

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