LON:GEN | I Read The News Today - 8-Aug-2017

8th Aug '17 by matylda

19 comments 7727 reads

All,

This is just my very high level view on what I spotted in the news today – I am a simple amateur investor who has been at it part time for 20 years with reasonable success. And, yes, I do usually check the news each day – But I have never written it down before – I guess mainly because there has not been an appropriate medium and also because I feel I am maybe too simple in my approach. Usually I am checking for news on companies I own and also looking for any stand out updates - E.g. Today TCO seems quite stand out ish to me and may even pick up a few later this afternoon.

I want to be clear – I Love the SCVR – I really love the SCVR – The only thing I would maybe like to see would be some constructive comment a little earlier on people’s views on the news today. I hate ADVFN and all those other boards and do not wish to read their views on each individual shares or the mornings news – More so I would appreciate a sensible early morning place to discuss general financial news with a focus on Interim and Full results.

Anyway, just really trying this out for a day, or maybe 2 – See how it goes. Others may have a better idea here on what to do or how to go about this, hope there is an interest and we can come up something – Assuming a decent majority would also like to see something like this.

NOTE – I am a simple investor – Does it make money, is it growing (revenues, profits, EPS), good ROCE, preferably has net cash – Decently covered dividend a bonus. Also like to see a decent Stock Rank. Usually I look at profitable companies in the £20m - £500 excluding Oils and exploration.

Here we go…

Polypipe (PLP) – Interim Results 6 months ended June 2017 - Decent looking interim results – Revenue up about 8%, PBT about 5% - The biggest increase is the 16% rise in the interim dividend – Decent coverage of the dividend in place to this is nice to see. On a PER of about 14 impact here should be minimal.

T Clarke…

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monions

8th Aug '17

Hi Matyida,

I think this is a great idea, hopefully you will have time to continue this. I see this as a quick snapshot of the news (close to when it's been released) and compliments SCVR at a different level.

I watch the RNS each morning, it would be good to have a place to bounce ideas around on items that pique our interest or just need a quick, simple clarification.

Mark.

Wol

Welcome. I am impressed by your intention to try out an earlier in the morning than the SCVR discussion. I hope it goes well. And yes I imagine the late morning / afternoon timing of the SCVR is because Paul and Graham put so much work, thought and analysis into it. I too find the SCVR completely invaluable - I could not do without it.
On the shares you mention, I was not overly impressed by the Polypipe (PLP) interim results. Half year underlying EPS growth shows up as 5.9% vs. A forecast EPS growth for the year (stock report) of 23%. They say "well placed to deliver management expectations" for the year. But they don't mention market expectations. So maybe market expectations will drop.
Did you look at the interim results from Morgan Sindall (MGNS). Basic EPS up 49%. These results look excellent but MGNS is still a very low margin business which means that profits could disappear completely if anything goes wrong.
All the best to you for your new initiative.

iwright7

OK I will add my 6p worth - A few 7.30am lines from my notes on Morgan Sindall (LON:MGNS) - I hold :

MGNS: Good set of H1 results (already largely known) with profit up 47%, from a low base. PER too cheap for cash pile of £132M. Interim Divi lift of +23% shows confidence and will appeal to income investors. Fit Out division is doing particularly well and confident management H2 outlook. What will the brokers do?

Tristan_Treacy

HSP (which I hold) is a complicated one. Essentially they are winding down their legacy coal mining business, seeking to generate cash from liquidating machinery and stock, maximise value from their considerable land assets and maintain niche, specialist businesses relating to the legacy coal business. Best way to look at it is on a net assets basis and then try to estimate what additional value there may be in the landbank and assume modest maintainable earnings. They achieved planning consent for their Bindwells site this year and although they haven't written up the book value of their land assets they do give both the market value and development value for their land bank (along with an explanation of those terms) in these results. It is tricky to estimate future gains in land value from planning - I tried to do this over a year ago on a conservative basis and it has worked out well for me, I will continue to hold. I may try and do a full analysis of this stock if I have time, you really need to look at each of its constituent parts to come up with a sensible valuation. I am massively impressed with how management have hung in there and managed to create value out of a situation which looked pretty hairy.

WhaleHQ

This is brilliant anything that sparks the often high quality discussions on here is worth supporting. I'll happily contribute when I'm up early enough.

Rusty2

Yes good idea. T Clarke (LON:CTO) is down 10% that seems a surprise.

jashunter

A great initiative. There is definitely a place for an early day quick look and comment on results and perhaps trading updates as well at the level you suggest. I have followed Paul for over 5 years and find the SCVR invaluable - even more so now with the addition of Graham's input. The best investment I made last year was to subscribe to Stockopedia. Can't recommend it highly enough.

matylda

Thanks for that insight - I kind of, in my ignorance, I guess - Look at the headline results - And, if they look strange or complicated I usually just pass - Actually, I usually look to see if it's covered in the SCVR to try and gain some education, as I have done from your post, much appreciated, still one I will be avoiding for now.

I too hold MGNS from back when it was smaller than £500m, now it's obviously not so I did not comment.

Interim Results 6 months ended June 2017 - Have to agree, I like these results, nice growth in revenue (about 14%) eclipsed by growth in PBT (+47%) and a 23% Dividend increase (current Dividend has good +2x coverage) - And all that cash - What's not to like! Continue to hold - PER of about 13, even after the recent move up, seems a little on the low side, perhaps!

Ramridge

Great idea, matylda. I hope it flies.
From my notes, I'd like to mention MTI Wireless Edge (LON:MWE) half year results published today. Apart from being an Israeli company (a known red flag), I noticed that the company's trade and other receivables keep going up at a faster rate than sales.
They now represent 80% of sales. Not a good sign; a major red flag.

Perhaps the SCVR will report on this!

From my high level view of the figures this seems OK (I guess my query is, with a PER of 7 what kind of growth were holders expecting here?). Is the fact PBT has no mention the issue, perhaps?

I note this recent comment (I do usually check for SCVR and other discussion comments before any purchase these days) from "Our Graham" (in May) - "So this could be a great time to get involved with an investment here, but if it was me, I would be thinking about my exit timeframe" - Report here.

With the respect I have for SCVR this is enough to make me cautious "I would be thinking about my exit timeframe" as those guys certainly know the figures much better than I ever could.

Note to all...

Thanks for the enthusiasm, comment and encouragement, a most constructive morning to be honest.

It's actually not hard (as most of you know) rattling through the news in the morning - But documenting it in some kind of reasonable and, hopefully useful, format is the tricky bit. I think I can commit to at least giving it another go tomorrow and see how it goes. For sure I will take any comments and suggestions on board.

And, it's actually nice to have something to talk about and discuss in the morning (without having to wade throw "bulletin board" drivel - Well, it is for me at least!

dfs12

Interesting idea. For me it would be particularly valuable if the there was a mid to large cap bias as these shares are specifically excluded (usually) from the small cap report.

Thanks Ramridge.

I have to admit to seeing that and thinking - Headline increases look good but the Israel connection and the fact it's less than £20m Mkt Cap just made me decide to leave it alone for now. Nice of you to identify the other Red Flags to all of us - Perhaps this is worthy of a "Scotty Red Flag" or whatever it's being suggested.

Thanks again.

Brilliant Leader

What a great idea matylda. I fully appreciate why it takes Paul and Graham until later in the day to publish the SCVR and a daily snapshot of news from other subscribers earlier in the day would be an excellent supplement. Maybe Paul and Graham can also use it to see which shares subscribers are most interested in that day.

Despite 35 holdings in my portfolio, no newsflow today - but I will try and contribute on days where there is.

Cheers
Simon

aflash

I am a simple amateur investor who has been at it part time for 20 years with reasonable success.

Delighted you have been successful. There are studies showing women make better investors, taking less risk and controlling their emotions better.

Please tell us how you coped, what were your successes and failures in the financial crisis 2008-2011 period and the TMT boom and bust 1999-2003.

aflash - I tried to answer this quickly but it is not a quick answer - I have decided I will take a little more time and probably do a profile update instead - This assumes of course I decide to carry on this early morning venture on the basis nobody will care or be interested at all should I decide not to!

Matylda if it is too time onerous we could have a daily post from 7am "I Read The News Today x-Aug-2017" thread that isn't the responsibility of a single individual. Anyone interested would chip in with a brief company summary/comment, whilst waiting for the Pro's (Paul/Graham) to create SCVR later in the day.

That could work, will see how we get on tomorrow, thanks for the input on MGNS and feedback- It's appreciated.

Paul Scott

Great idea! I can definitely see the need for a quick-fire daily discussion thread. Then Graham & I can do some more in-depth analysis later. Whatever people find useful.

David O'Hara tried something like this a couple of years ago. It lasted about 2-3 weeks, from memory.
So maybe a better idea could be spreading the workload Mon-Fri, maybe with one person doing each day?
Must admit, I'm really strugging with the workload of the SCVR, it's a lot of work, so might enjoy taking part in a group effort like this going forwards?

Best wishes, Paul.

I Read The News Today - 8-Aug-2017

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Matylda

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