I Read The News Today Oh Boy! 29-Jan-2018

29th Jan '18 by matylda

11 comments 5948 reads

Morning All!

Porvair ( Porvair (LON:PRV) ) – 532.78p – £243.1m – PER 27.6

Results For The 12 Months To End November 2017 – Record revenue of £116.4m (£109.4m last time), up 6%, PBT up 16% to a record £11.7m (£10.1m last time), EPS up 14%, Net cash at £9.8m (£13.6m last time) and the final dividend is up 12.5% to 2.7p per share. Made a promising start to the year.

Nice set of results but on this rating I would expect better than this. I remain Neutral here for now.

SThree ( SThree (LON:STHR) ) – 372p – £484.0m – PER 13.8

Results For The 12 Months To End November 2017 – Adjusted PBT up 9% to £44.5m (helped by FX, which if you strip out shows an under performance over last year of -3%), the final Dividend is maintained.

Stockopedia (StockRank 97) likes it more than I do.

EasyHotel ( easyHotel (LON:EZH) ) – 112p – £112.6m – PER 78.5

Trading Update – Strong trading continues and is in-line with the Board’s expectations.

I am still wary of this sector (with the rise of Airbnb and Booking). For sure I am not interested in paying up for an operator on a PER of 78.5.

Anpario ( Anpario (LON:ANP) ) – 493p – £114.0m – PER 29.9

Trading Update For The 12 Months To End December 2017 – In-line with Cash at £13.6m versus £11.1m last time.

Almost doubled in the past 12 months. Wish I’d spotted it back then when it was reasonably priced, looks expensive now to me.

Netcall ( Netcall (LON:NET) ) – 47p – £67.1m – PER 20.4

Trading Update For The 12 Months To End December 2017 – In-line.

Quite like this, it’s going on my Watchlist, 44p.

Sopheon ( Sopheon (LON:SPE) ) – 492.5p – £49.2m – PER 17.9

Trading Update For The 12 Months To End December 2017 – Expects revenues to be over $28m, up from $23m in 2016, and comfortably ahead of current market expectations. Expects…

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MrContrarian

29th Jan '18

My morning smallcap tweet:

Sopheon (LON:SPE), Immedia (LON:IME), Colefax (LON:CFX), Nasstar (LON:NASA), Yu (LON:YU.), Seeing Machines (LON:SEE), Utilitywise (LON:UTW)

Sopheon (SPE) guides FY rev over $28m ($23m), comfortably ahead of market expectations. Also EBITDA and pre-tax significantly ahead of current market expectations.
Immedia Group (IME) FY trading - order delays and slower than anticipated financial performance of AVC Immedia causes increased loss before tax. Guides -£600k (-£184k).
Colefax Group (CFX) H1 pretax up up 35%. Expects the Decorating Division to exceed its original expectations for FY, but it is only contributing 12% of group profits.
Nasstar (NASA) guides FY adj EBITDA slightly ahead of management expectation.
Yu Group (YU.) guides FY rev significantly ahead of current market forecasts. "The Group has elected to make additional investment in headcount and fixed costs. However, the Board is confident that the Group will report operating profits ahead of current market expectations."
Seeing Machines (SEE) CEO resigns, immed effect (I think). SEE wishes him well so not sacked?
Utilitywise (UTW) suspended - FY accounts not ready "due to the volume of work still required to be completed by the Company and its auditor to cater for the proposed change in the Company's revenue recognition policy...delay is not related to the Company's banking arrangements, nor the trading, cash flows or other underlying economic position of Utilitywise in either FY17 or the current financial year."

nicobos

Defenx (LON:DFX) issues a terrible update and shares are down c.25%. Cash is king and they can't seem to find any !

One for the bargepole list imho.

andrea34

Thanks for review.

Sopheon (LON:SPE) look quite reasonable value to me based on the eps in the last results... albeit there was quite a flattering tax credit; they don't look overly expensive though. The spread is a bit disappointing.

I have thought for years that the price of Porvair (LON:PRV) is unjustified

matylda

You're welcome, I agree on both counts.

Glorenfeld

Hi Matylda - I'd like to add my thanks for these morning updates - I find them very helpful.

I notice that in your more recent posts, you have started indicating when something will go on your watchlist and a target price. I was wondering if there is a particular method that you use to set your target prices?

Thanks, you're welcome.

Typically about 10% or so above a significant low, more of a personal note that its a technically sound place, in my opinion to consider an Entry - That will allow me to implement a 20% Stop, that being the point when I typically exit (worst case 25%). So for example, significant low is 100p - I could have a Watchlist price of 110p - If price fell to say 112p and I was still happy to take a position I could do so and have a 90p Stop in place.

Hope that makes sense.

E.g. Netcall (LON:NET) above = Watchlist 44p, 10% above the 40p level (a significant low). I could enter at say 45p and be comfortable with a 36p Stop (20%). So if that was then taken out I would consider the technicals are against me and I have probably got my fundamental analysis wrong too.

A simplistic approach but it suits me and has worked OK for me for 20 years or so - If it ain't broke don't...

Thanks for the explanation. I'm firmly of the opinion that simple is better.

The Phoenix

Hi do you mind me asking using the above money management system whats your average year on year gain ?
Many thanks also for the daily updates

30th Jan '18

Thanks clarea, you're welcome.

Well, this is one of 2 main entry approaches I use (a retracement), the other is similar but for break-outs. I try to check the charts for those shares on my Watchlist every weekend and if I see a breakout and am still interested I can get involved as follows...

Breakout of 100p to say 105p or 110p I will place a Stop about 20% away, which usually works out at least 10% below that original breakout level.

With the retracement approach I like to think that I get in on a 10% (or so) retracement, sometimes bigger - So that 20% Stop plus the retracement percent takes out about 30% volatility.

With the breakout I am more so hoping it's strong technical action to support what I think is a sound fundamental view of mine (that's why it's on my Watchlist). I have less leeway to cope with volatility but I am hopeful that can come after the breakout pushes higher and I will be more protected by then.

Have I ever measured either or both of them over the years - Sadly no. Do I break my rules sometimes, yes but very seldom.

As I mentioned before it's just a simple (almost mechanical) approach to Entry and Stop which suits me and seems to work for me.

As a note my Target is generally open and I typically take 50% off the table when doubled and leave the rest as "free money". I will also consider exit on a change of the fundamental landscape.

Bit of a ramble and early in the morning, hope it makes some kind of sense!

3rd Feb '18

Hi thanks for the reply these days I try something similar either wait for a breakout or try and get in near support with a 10% stop if that then goes normally find if the 52 week low goes its generally a sign that the stock will head lower.

I Read The News Today Oh Boy! 29-Jan-2018

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Matylda

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