Incidental stuff

Thursday, May 21 2009 by

NO TA ON THIS THREAD PLEASE - (edit) and no pointless speculations either!

I've created this thread just to park stuff in that is only tangentially-related to SOCO's interests and doesn't relate to any of the specific assets.


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SOCO International plc (SOCO) is an oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company's segments include South East Asia and Africa. It has field development and production interests in Vietnam, and exploration and appraisal interests in the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) and Angola. In Vietnam, SOCO's Block 16-1 and Block 9-2 include the Te Giac Trang and Ca Ngu Vang Fields, which are located in shallow water in the Cuu Long Basin, near the Bach Ho Field. SOCO holds working interest in Block 16-1 and Block 9-2 through its subsidiaries, SOCO Vietnam Ltd and OPECO Vietnam Limited. SOCO holds its interests in the Marine XI Block, located offshore Congo (Brazzaville) in the shallow water Lower Congo Basin, through its subsidiary, SOCO EPC. SOCO holds working interest in the Mer Profonde Sud Block, offshore Congo (Brazzaville) through its subsidiary, SOCO Congo BEX Limited. SOCO's subsidiary, SOCO Cabinda Limited, holds participation interests in the Cabinda North Block. more »

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1294 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

rhomboid1 28th Apr '14 1275 of 1294

Morning EE
I've often thought that sector consolidation could have involved Soco putting its balance sheet strength to work by acquiring acreage rich cash poor E&P's however the recent Numis note highlighted how low returns on equity are elsewhere in the sector. I like the fact that Soco are very clear on the type of portfolio additions they'd agree and the hurdle levels they need to surpass.


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emptyend 28th Apr '14 1276 of 1294

In reply to rhomboid1, post #1275

G'day rhomboid,

I've certainly had similar thoughts in the past and wouldn't wholly rule it out. However, there are very few situations IMO (if any - certainly amongst public companies) that would pass the hurdles.


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peterg 28th Apr '14 1277 of 1294

In reply to emptyend, post #1276

To the person who voted this comment down:

I've certainly had similar thoughts in the past and wouldn't wholly rule it out. However, there are very few situations IMO (if any - certainly amongst public companies) that would pass the hurdles.

Since you clearly disagree with that statement strongly enough to vote it down, could you please tell us about the situations that you think would pass the hurdles? That's information I'm sure we would all appreciate you sharing.


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omh 30th Apr '14 1279 of 1294

A 320p deal for Heritage Oil (LON:HOIL) won't hurt: - 

Well yes and no.....

Per the RNS:

This represents a premium of:

25% to closing price.  SOCO £4.20 so similar gives £5.25,  No thanks

35% to 3 month VWA.  SOCO still about £4.20 giving £5.67.  Not much better

115% to 31 Dec price.  SOCO £3.96 giving £8.51.  NOW I'm interested

Just sayin' ;-)


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emptyend 30th Apr '14 1280 of 1294

In reply to omh, post #1279

I observed elsewhere that Heritage Oil (LON:HOIL) accompanied the deal news with some disappointing production news - and that IMO SOCO International (LON:SIA) is in a very much stronger position.

I also think that the H5 development plan (due summer) and associated TGT production outlook will be key - and wouldn't be too surprised if  "other news" arrived at the same time.

IMO any deal would need to be at £7+ (possibly more, depending on the reserves and production outlook)

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nigelpm 1st May '14 1282 of 1294

And that's a bit closer to home ;-)

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TomKe 8th May '14 1283 of 1294

It may be a 'childs drawing' but it looks as though China means business on the 'nine dotted line'.

Latest incident is in Vietnam and reported in 'The Guardian'.

This has the potential to 'blow up' big-time all across the South China sea not just in Vietnam especially if (when) the Chinese economy makes a hard landing caused by a banking collapse and the Chinese Gov't look for a diversion for the attention of its people.

The dispute with Japan over the Senkaku Islands isn't going away either.

Looks like interesting times ahead in the South China sea.


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emptyend 8th May '14 1284 of 1294

.... though of course zero impact on SOCO International (LON:SIA) assets, which are in undisputed territory.
If there is doubt over ability to explore in other areas, undisputed assets should become more valuable if anything.
Politically the issue is tough even for China, because their border dispute is multilateral, and can't be resolved by force.

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TomKe 8th May '14 1285 of 1294

Hi EE,
I was aware that the Soco acreage is not in an area under dispute, unlike Premier's, but I don't think that instability in an area is good news for anyone. Any oil discovery these days tends to come with political risks attached and we should count ourselves fortunate that Vietnam is one of the oil company friendlier countries.


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emptyend 8th May '14 1286 of 1294

In reply to TomKe, post #1285

Frankly I think large chunks of the world counts as "unstable" at present. With Ukraine rumbling on and the Scots deciding on independence, you can't regard many Western Europe O&G assets as "stable" IMO.

With regard to Asia, all of the protaganists are structurally short of energy - which is of course one reason they are all sabre-rattling over potential acreage.

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Nothingventured 3rd Dec '14 1287 of 1294

It's great to back - and I see lots of the familiar names are still in circulation.
I am really surprised that oil is on offer at $70 and after a quick look at the sector SIA still seems like a sensible investment.
I hope it's as much fun as last time.
Best wishes to all.

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Nothingventured 3rd Dec '14 1288 of 1294

A colleague pointed out this (Beta) site to me. Quite entertaining.

I guess you can tear up the earnings estimates now, but I thought the web site provided an enjoyable experience.

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emptyend 3rd Dec '14 1289 of 1294

In reply to Nothingventured, post #1288

entertaining is about right....... ;-)

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extrader 3rd Dec '14 1290 of 1294

The 'calculated fair value' of £ 26-12 sounds pretty compelling, I have to say......:->

I'll have some of whatever they're smoking !


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emptyend 3rd Dec '14 1291 of 1294

In reply to extrader, post #1290

...oy! ET....get back in the queue ;-)

FWIW I took a very quick search though a few sector notes and was interested to see that analysts broadly expect to see SOCO maintaining the distribution to shareholders next year despite the fall in the oil price. Personally I would be delighted if that were to be the case and (with that payout "only" $120mn ish and with $280mn ish estimated in the bank at year end) there is little doubt that they could afford such a payout if they wished to.

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emptyend 22nd Dec '14 1292 of 1294

Just in case it is relevant to anyone, I see that the SOCO website now carries a warning:
SOCO is aware of attempts to impersonate the company on social media. SOCO does not use Twitter or have a Facebook page.

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Shuko42 29th Dec '14 1293 of 1294

I wonder if the share buy back programme will be activated again given the price has dropped below £3 ?

I think it would make sense if you subscribe to the belief that the price of oil will rebound upwards in due course and the share price with it.

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peterg 29th Dec '14 1294 of 1294

In reply to Shuko42, post #1293

I wonder if the share buy back programme will be activated again given the price has dropped below £3

Well, I wouldn't rule it out. However, since the company last did buy backs they've started returning significant cash to shareholders, and indicated they want to move towards a more conventional dividend policy. Given current reductions in FCF, I'd think it unlikely they would pursue both courses at once, unless something radical happens that leaves them will a shed load of cash (certainly not impossible)


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