New podcast for investors and traders

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2nd Oct '20 by donald pond

29 comments 1747 reads

Hi folks, I've launched a new podcast with my friend Dave. This is the first one so we are working on artwork and platforms etc, but if feedback is positive we will aim for 30 minutes, weekly, with a quick turnaround to keep things current. We are both full time investor/traders and discuss our approach and a few stocks, but the aim is to be primarily educational rather than stock tipping. Things we mention include Burford Capital (LON:BUR), Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ), £TSLA, Boohoo (LON:BOO), Ocado (LON:OCDO) etc

Hope you enjoy and please give feedback:

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1389826/5698324

Now also available on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/...

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About the Author

Donald Pond

Premium Member

29 comments

Caper4

3rd Oct '20

very good . Will the podcast,in due course , be available on Apple podcasts ?

LeopoldAlcocks

3rd Oct '20

Thanks, really enjoyed it. Will listen on

donald pond

3rd Oct '20

Thanks for all the feedback everyone. It's on Spotify already, Dave has submitted it to Apple but they say it can take a few days for the first one to get up and running. So it will be there soon.

Hydro31

3rd Oct '20

enjoyed this well done

William K

4th Oct '20

Thank you Donald and Dave. Enjoyable and stimulating. It's good you mention the US markets which are often neglected in the UK despite their high liquidity and potential for substantial profits. Thanks for discussing Games Workshop (LON:GAW) which is something of an enigma. It looks overpriced as it has done for the last few years yet it keeps defying gravity (I hold). On the balance of probabilities what advice would you give current holders at the £100 mark. Buy more? Hold? Sell?

donald pond

4th Oct '20

Thanks for comments Wilkonz and we’ve been really amazed at the positive reception - you never know how these things will go.

I think the key point with Games Workshop (LON:GAW) from my perspective is that is shows how hard it can be to run winners. I’ve held it at least 3 times and have sold it for a decent profit each time that has subsequently been dwarfed by how it has performed. If you had the foresight to buy when it was in single figures, you are now getting a dividend of 20-30% of your purchase price.

So, any comments I make on GAW need to be prefaced by the comment that I have misunderstood the nature of GAW. And I think that is because I both underestimate how big a global niche hobby business can be, and also because there is something else going on. I think that something else is connected with their IP, and the possibility that Warhammer could become the next Avengers or Star Wars.
The £2bn market cap looks very high to me - I think Phil Oakley said in a recent podcast that it is priced to perfection. But on the other hand, it is a business that executes brilliantly, has huge brand loyalty, makes big profits without needing vast capital, and has IP that someone like Netflix or Disney may be willing to pay big bucks for. And whenever I’ve sold I’ve quickly regretted it and been proved wrong.

William K

4th Oct '20

Many thanks Donald for that insightful reply about £GAW. The strongest feature of this business is its loyal - almost fanatical - customer base, as you suggest, and something close to a unique product with a sharp competitive edge. Maybe a takeover by Netflix or Disney is in the pipeline (I hadn't actually considered that one...). My tentative plan is to sit tight and wait for the price to reach £110 before buying a further tranche. Whilst the stock price can't keep rocketing up forever, it still looks solidly in Stage 2 and some distance from Stage 3.

donald pond

4th Oct '20

it’s also worth emphasising that the whole TA and stage approach works best with very liquid, large stocks and if you ignore extraneous market shocks. So Games Workshop (LON:GAW) for example had a nasty Covid pullback and you could easily have interpreted the pullback between October 18 and April 19 as the stock rolling over and having solidly moved from stage 2 to stage 3. In both cases, selling would (unless followed by a well timed buyback) have been a mistake.
In general, a lot depends on timescales, both in terms of what your investing timescale is and also how closely you monitor trades. Although I couldn’t do it, I wonder whether the investor who uses yearly candlesticks and only looks at his PF once or twice a decade does better, assuming a good initial stock selection, than those busy fools like me who can’t leave it alone. Signal vs noise, the more you focus the more you run the risk of confusing the 2.

Something for Dave and to discuss!

Matt McKiernan

4th Oct '20

Nice one Donald.

A very enjoyable podcast. Will subscribe to it, once it appears on Apple/itunes platform. Looking forward to the future episodes !!

Trader Jack

5th Oct '20

Really enjoyed it Donald & Dave. Your debate about running winners and when to sell was illuminating (especially as my finger has been hovering over the sell button on AAZ, having been in since late March...). Glad I'm not the only one that jumps in & out!!

Pokiry20

5th Oct '20

Hey Donald. Likewise a fellow investor in AAZ and v frustrated with recent events. I knew there geopolitical risks but not to this extent. Are you still planning on holding? If this drops sub 100p, I m worried I ll be enticed again! Clearly attached to this one, so not v good!

Great job on the podcast!

Rusty2

6th Oct '20

Hello Donald, It's a good podcast, I think the first podcast I have ever heard, it works on an ipad.

One suggestion is to list all the shares that are covered on here, it makes a lot easier to find them later, I could not work out one of Dave's near the end.

I also hold Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ) and can relate to selling issues, I had a problem even selling 1,000 shares last Thursday, had to take a lower price in the end and yes the spreads can widen also.

Running winners is difficult, I know I have held both Burford Capital (LON:BUR) and Games Workshop (LON:GAW), when is a dip a buying opportunity of the beginning of stage 4? I held onto Burford Capital (LON:BUR) for too long and then got shorted.

I have also held shares that have flatlined for a year and sold them only to see them double in the next year. Having sold it's difficult to buy them back but I'm getting better at that.

Maddox

6th Oct '20

Hi Donald, Dave,

Enjoyed your podcast. You mention your next topic will be 'trading volume' - an advance question - where can you find a good analysis of trading volume?

Regards Maddox

donald pond

6th Oct '20

Really grateful for all the feedback everyone, have been quietly amazed by how many downloads the podcast has had and we are definitely going to produce more.

In terms of volume, it is something that you should pull up whenever you look at a chart. I'm taking this one Jack Corsellis just posted of 4D, and you can see clearly the two big volume days that coincided with jumps in the share price. Those indicate that a lot of shares have been churned, and so on an up day that sellers are likely to have been exhausted, and thus there will be fewer inclined to sell unless the price moves substantially higher. That's the basic theory, and it works just as well on the way down.

donald pond

6th Oct '20

Will do that in future and also try to keep them to 30 minutes. In general, I think investing is all about having a process so that you don't do something impulsive in the heat of the moment that you regret later. And being able to tell a pause in an uptrend from the start of a share rolling over is definitely very difficult. Perhaps in a future episode we will discuss Livermore's concept of "normal price action" and the nature of retracements.

KevinS1

6th Oct '20

Great Podcast (so far - still got a few minutes to finish off). Will wait the next one with interest.

HumourMe

7th Oct '20

Is it possible to get this on android via the Google podcast app? I can listen to it on my PC which I'll do next, but there are times when my phone would be more convenient and the glowing reviews are encouraging me to listen. If not the Google podcast app what are android users preferring?

BTW very enjoyable - recommend a listen.

donald pond

7th Oct '20

I no techie, so its on Buzzsprout, Apple and Spotify. I will ask Dave to sort out a Google listing.

Thanks!

Banzii

7th Oct '20

I use podcast addict on Android. The podcast was findable on there a few days after this thread was posted.

pdesai

7th Oct '20

Thankyou for an excellent podcast.

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About the Author

Donald Pond

29 comments

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