Short the DOW to protect against Trump's alleged sexual misconduct?

5th Dec '17 by PhilHofGrowYourDough

17 comments 5207 reads

I found it interesting to see how the DOW plunged on the incorrect report by ABC news report that Trump directed Flynn to contact Russian representatives prior to taking office.

So it seems the market is very jittery around the Trump presidency.

Well today marks another risky day as a New York court is deciding if a case can proceed where an alleged victim of an unwanted sexual advance from Trump is claiming defamation after his denials and criticisms of the alleged victim.

Potential outcomes are:

1) Dismissed
2) Kicked to long grass once Trump is no longer President
3) Allowed to proceed

In the case of option 3, there are 16 other women ready to follow a similar path and the defamation option is easier to prosecute than the sexual misconduct as they only have to prove that he has lied at some stage. And lieing under oath will be a potentially impeachable act.

I have exposure to some US stocks plus the US market tends to set the pace for all other markets, so I've been considering shorting the DOW today as a short term measure.

I'd appreciate any thoughts?

Phil

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Rusty2

5th Dec '17

You maybe better off shorting the Nasdaq. Tech. stocks are jittery.

JohnEustace

Once the tax bill has passed Trump will have served his purpose as far as the Republicans are concerned.
As well as the New York case, special prosecutor Mueller is methodically working his way up the hierarchy and there will be further major developments in his investigations. So short term volatility is likely. But is that likely to be damaging in the longer term? I guess that will be a function of the divisions in US society and the extent to which they are exacerbated.
Personally I am more concerned about North Korea. Perhaps it's all a puppet show orchestrated by Putin and Trump to divert our attention and keep us preoccupied. But there are US generals making real contingency plans for war.

Nick Ray

I think the market might be jittery if Trump's links to Russia turn out to be significant. But if he is impeached for unwanted sexual advances the market won't care very much.

cig

If Trump is impeached market goes up on hope successor is better (lowest hurdle ever!).
If Trump is not impeached market goes up on business as usual basis.
If Kim nukes a little something market goes up because repairs to little something is a boost to the economy (and a counter-nuke would remove uncertainty which would make market go further up).

Hard to find truly negative scenarios with current "known unknowns".

Howard Marx

Dow Jones 30 = US Industrials

Who don't care who the President is

Similar to the FTSE-100 not caring who Theresa May is

shipoffrogs

I guess there were lots of equity investors who considered hedging against him being elected and against Brexit - they were very wise to predict those outcomes but then completely wrong on the market reactions.

Can you be sure the market will head South if he's impeached?

You can be sure it will if he remains in office and starts the battle of the bad haircuts with N Korea.

PhilHofGrowYourDough

Sof,

I was struck by the sharp drop last week when the suggestion was made by ABC news that Trump was the individual that directed Flynn to contact the Russians. So if that was the case then another possibility of impeachment will be lieing in a criminal case, such as a defamation case.

Agreed that at present it might be better to short the NASDAQ as it was hit hardest by the new report.

We'll see what happens.

Thanks for comments and best of luck all

Regards
Phil

AnonymousUser252054

6th Dec '17

Closer to home I think there are some pretty serious threats to the FTSE and other indices, such as Brexit negotiations collapsing over the border issue, May stepping down, and another election being called.

Certainly European stocks in my portfolio are holding up a lot better than UK & US stocks.

I think May has three options:

1) Drag Eire into the UK
2) Kick NI out of the UK
3) Abandon Brexit

#shambles

AnonymousUser858

There are other scenarios which seem to me to be more likely than any of those 3:

4) abandon negotiations and crash out of EU in hardest of hard brexits

5) resign as PM saying country now ungovernable -> leadership contest -> Boris or worse

6) call another General Election leading to….

7) hung parliament -> paralysis

7) or even Jeremy Corbyn as PM, McDonnell and Momentum as powers behind throne -> nuclear winter for UK
economy

I'd prefer 4 by some distance

The way that David Davis et al left the Irish border issue to last in the negotiations underlines the embarrassing amateurism of the whole Brexit fiasco. It was always the one thing that was not going to be easily fixable by throwing money at it.

They really are clueless, just making it up as they go along and hoping for the best with all our futures on the line.

And how do you propose to resolve the irish border issue with option 4?

Nationalists don't want fixed border
Unionists don't want any separation from the mainland Britain

Interesting to think that individuals would thumbs down a question.

#shakeshead

willhampson

It wasn't me (and I would be happy to admit if it was), but I suspect it is the bringing of politics, yet again, into this forum. From a personal perspective, I hear enough of it day-to-day and have zero interest seeing it on these forums. Brexit - yay or nay - I just dont want to hear it here. My two cents.

Oh I have a good idea who it is. Said individual appears to down thumb every post I make. Still keeps them busy I guess.

Just to note, I didn't introduce Brexit to this thread.

aflash

Whenever I see a childish thumbs down I cancel it with a thumbs up. It works. Please do the same.

I can't think of a time when I've used a thumbs down, I'd prefer to comment and engage in dialogue.

*shrug*

Short the DOW to protect against Trump's alleged sexual misconduct?

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PhilHofGrowYourDough

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