Stockslam 3min Pitch: LON:GCL Geiger Counter

9th Sep '21 by Edmund Shing

22 comments 1784 reads

Hi there,

for those who listened into my pitch last night (Wednesday 8 Sept.) for uranium miners' closed-end fund Geiger Counter (LON:GCL), here are my bullet points to recap my version of the investment case...

Closed-end fund, run by CQS/New City Inv Mgmt. YES I own it!
Market Cap £50m, price 50p
Focused on CAD, AUD, USD, other quoted and unquoted uranium miners, thus very high risk.
Fund page can be found here
Only 2 main UK-listed uranium plays, Geiger Counter (LON:GCL) and Yellow Cake (LON:YCA) (not counting Berkeley Energia). US-listed ETFs include URA and URNM.
Drivers for uranium:
- net zero carbon drive by US/EU/COP26,
- electric vehicle energy demand growth,
- utilities’ stockpiles running down,
- big geopolitical risk with Kazatomprom (in Kazakhstan) the biggest single world producer (21%),
- Uranium oxide price at < $40/lb, v break even mining cost closer to $50/lb,
- supply from decommissioned warheads disappearing,
- new reactors coming online e.g. in India, China to satisfy growing electricity demand. Even Japan gradually bringing nuclear reactors back online
Catalyst = Demand/supply imbalance: YCA, Sporott Physical Uranium Trust (in Canada, up to $300m buying pressure), uranium miners all stockpiling uranium, creating a short squeeze for electric utilities
GCL largest holdings:
1. Nexgen Energy 23.5%,
2. UR-Energy 7.6%,
3. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust 7.6%,
4. Isoenergy 6.9%. See factsheet for more details, or interim report for detailed breakdown.
NAV driven by (mostly) quoted and unquoted uranium mining exposures; operational leverage to uranium spot price (early 2020 = $25/lb, now $40). Current premium to NAV c 5%
Chart: recent breakout to 9-year high, next resistance 70p

Geiger Counter (in blue) v Uranium price (yellow) last 10 years

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TangoDoc

9th Sep '21

I have long thought that nuclear energy would have to be central to our future energy policies. It no longer suffers as much as it did from its historical links to a fear of nuclear war and accidents, even despite Chernobyl and Fukushima. It might be said that those two events and our apparent survival past them, as well as the rebirth of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, have made us blasé. The dangers are not those of Predator or Alien but far more understood, predictable and accountable. The balance of risks to humanity from other causes, such as disease, pollution, global warming, starvation and clean water lack as well as conventional warfare put nuclear risk into proportion. We balance the risks against others, not against a world of no risk.

The galloping development of increasingly useful batteries means electricity will eventually become as tradable as a currency. It's problem has always been storage. I drive an electric car, not a hybrid, since the infrastructure is now adequate. Now I can drive over 250 miles without stopping. I get exhausted before the battery does. VW say I could drive 300 miles fully charged. I can vouch for the 250 but I never worry about supply.

Cars are just the beginning; in a sense the priming of the pump. I can already envisage a future in which all homes will have massive batteries, some powered by solar or wind but most from the grid. Gas, wood fires and coal will be banned or taxed out of existence. So far, renewable and green ways of making electricity, whatever the weather, day or night, reliably have not overcome their obvious drawbacks. More electricity use will have to mean more nuclear power stations in my view while we await nuclear fusion.

Edmund Shing

Hi njoydev12,

I don't really do price targets, as I think that they are fairly random.

Looking at the long-term chart, 70p as I said is the next stop, so you could use that as a reasonable target for the next 6-12m - but might get there faster.

Long-term, 123p looks like a significant resistance level going back to 2011, that might take a bit longer to achieve.

Hartshay

11th Sep '21

I have a little Geiger counter as a small diversified, but hold a lot miners directly as the direct returns are so much better despite trading costs of stock on foreign exchanges. The fees charged are high and a good chunk of assets are not in uranium.

Even on the lse aura energy gave me a 1 bagger in a week with plenty more to run.

If you want moderate returns by all means invest in gcl but there are much better opportunities in this sector

4th Oct '21

I hold all these bar bky and the eft’s. Only reason to hold gcl is that they have some sit…9%dish. But they do have 25% of their value in a n unlisted Non uranium explorer which with their high fees limits their upside considerably .

Uranium dip is ending ..I am locked and loaded for the next leg up ..

Rusty2

20th Oct '21

Does anyone know why Geiger Counter (LON:GCL) is down 6% today, can't find any news?

Revs8

Looking at the chart it could simply be profit taking by traders. The RSI of this peak was lower than the previous indicating the rally might be fading.

gus 1065

Nothing on the usual chat boards (ADVFN or LSE), uranium spot is up about 1.5% and Yellow Cake (LON:YCA) about 2% and not a huge amount of share turnover so suspect it’s just profit taking after the recent run up in the Geiger Counter (LON:GCL) share price pushing the market bid down.

Gus.

27th Oct '21

Yca Share placement to institution at 5% discount ..cash to buy more uranium. gcl not reflecting wider uranium market it’s not uranium eft heavily invested in a limited number of uranium stocks…

1st Nov '21

u.un is now available in a non isa account with HL

5th Nov '21

uranium bull run continuing bet the doubters are wishing they were invested

Not sure which uranium isotope you’re looking at, but my uranium bull looks to be a bit stuck in his stall at the moment …..

Why are most Uranium stocks down then? Apart from Geiger Counter (LON:GCL)

njoydev12

Hello. Please can someone help me. I like this share but cannot seem to find a Website for it. What is the Website? Thanks.

I am really interested in this share. I think it has great potential. But what is the website of this company?

Geiger Counter (LON:GCL) is an investment trust that invests in a portfolio of companies with interests related to uranium used in the provision of nuclear power. It has a Stocko report page or you can follow this link to the AIC website and access further information and various reports as well as its own website.

https://www.theaic.co.uk/compa...

8th Nov '21

Quarterly update this morning from Yellow Cake (LON:YCA) with a useful market commentary for the uranium bugs amongst us.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/...

23rd Nov '21

Geiger Counter (LON:GCL) does anyone know why the shares are down around 25% in the last week?

Lighty

General Volatility in sector.Good buy in opportunity expect it to rocket again shortly

13th Dec '21

q1 2022 gonna double

Stockslam 3min Pitch: LON:GCL Geiger Counter

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Edmund Shing

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