Hi there,

for those who listened into my pitch last night (Wednesday 8 Sept.) for uranium miners' closed-end fund Geiger Counter (LON:GCL), here are my bullet points to recap my version of the investment case...

  1. Closed-end fund, run by CQS/New City Inv Mgmt. YES I own it!
  2. Market Cap £50m, price 50p
  3. Focused on CAD, AUD, USD, other quoted and unquoted uranium miners, thus very high risk.
    Fund page can be found here
  4. Only 2 main UK-listed uranium plays, Geiger Counter (LON:GCL) and Yellow Cake (LON:YCA) (not counting Berkeley Energia). US-listed ETFs include URA and URNM.
  5. Drivers for uranium:
    - net zero carbon drive by US/EU/COP26,
    - electric vehicle energy demand growth,
    - utilities’ stockpiles running down,
    - big geopolitical risk with Kazatomprom (in Kazakhstan) the biggest single world producer (21%),
    - Uranium oxide price at < $40/lb, v break even mining cost closer to $50/lb,
    - supply from decommissioned warheads disappearing,
    - new reactors coming online e.g. in India, China to satisfy growing electricity demand. Even Japan gradually bringing nuclear reactors back online
  6. Catalyst = Demand/supply imbalance: YCA, Sporott Physical Uranium Trust (in Canada, up to $300m buying pressure), uranium miners all stockpiling uranium, creating a short squeeze for electric utilities
  7. GCL largest holdings:
    1. Nexgen Energy 23.5%,
    2. UR-Energy 7.6%,
    3. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust 7.6%,
    4. Isoenergy 6.9%. See factsheet for more details, or interim report for detailed breakdown.
  8. NAV driven by (mostly) quoted and unquoted uranium mining exposures; operational leverage to uranium spot price (early 2020 = $25/lb, now $40). Current premium to NAV c 5%
  9. Chart: recent breakout to 9-year high, next resistance 70p

Geiger Counter (in blue) v Uranium price (yellow) last 10 years


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