THE NEXT BIG THING

21st Jul '16 by WarrantStar

15 comments 13034 reads

The stock market is forward looking. So we have to be forward looking to be successful.
So do you think that the result of the forthcoming US election will effect the UK stock market? To what extent will it affect us? What result do you expect? How are you positioning your portfolio for the result that you expect & why? Or is it best to completely ignore it?
For what it is worth, I expect Trump to win, because he keeps playing the anti establishment card. Yes, I know that it is ridiculous to suggest that he is anti establishment! But, that is the image that he projects. And it was a similar kind of anti establishment vote, that is now causing us to leave the European Union.

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About the Author

WarrantStar

Premium Member

I am a keen & experienced investor. I love my spread sheets, and like to think that I know what I am doing. I wouldn't be offended to be described as a bit geeky. Mostly I do well, but I always strive to do better. Married male. Born 1957 England. Good career in industry for 35 years. Been successfully investing for about 30 years. I chose to retire from salaried employment at age 57 to look after my investments. I consider myself to be quite analytical / logical / mathematical, but also take into account how the world is likely to change & how people behave. I always follow my processes before taking action. more »

15 comments

WarrantStar

21st Jul '16

It's very easy to give me a thumb down. But this is supposed to be a discussion forum. So how about explaining what you disagree with in my post?

rhomboid1

21st Jul '16

I didn't give you a thumbs down because on iPad it doesn't let me. My problem with your post is equating Brexit support with supporters of Trump, that is a non sequitur on a grand scale

underscored

21st Jul '16

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Zzl4B3mrKQE Not the first person to make the linkage. I too see both as a reaction to globalisation

WarrantStar

21st Jul '16

Thanks for your contributions.
I have some views on why people voted for Brexit. ie

1) Lack of democracy in the European Union.
2) Immigration
3) The EU is stifling our trading arrangements
4) Common Agricultural Policy is making our food much more expensive.
5) The rest of the world is growing much faster than the moribund EU

But I do maintain that a really big reason was wanting to give the establishment a kicking because it is not working well for significant proportions of society.

However, this post was supposed to be about the US election. Would anyone like to comment about that?

rhomboid1

21st Jul '16

I'm ignoring it as both candidates are deeply flawed but the US economy has a habit of shrugging off political events and just doing its random walk.

Whitbyview

21st Jul '16

The election is clearly a big thing but there are so many other black swan events that could take place in the meantime, it's not really on my radar right now. That's the long and short of it for me.

underscored

22nd Jul '16

I think Brexit and Trumpism (are they different), mark the emergance of an important trend. Since the fall of the Berlin wall our world and our economies have been dominated by Globalisation and the emergence of the BRICS as outsourced manufactruing hubs of the debt laden consumptive nations.

There is now a push back against this trend - watch the politics carefully and think how it might effect big future investment themes.

TangoDoc

22nd Jul '16

Well, how about this? Brett and Trumpism are both functions of fear and greed expressed by an electorate that has, in the past, for the main part, felt it was Ok to let politics be the province of the elite. They were, after all, the involved, the concerned, the invested and, above all, the educated. "I know my place" That's over.

It's not just the UK that has "had enough of experts". Nowadays, even the most uneducated people express views online that diverge so far away from science and, however much information is online to easily google, I can tell you that the bizarre ideas held by some people in my own field, medicine, sometimes make me fear for their survival. This is the era of the common man and woman and equality, much as I have espoused it all my life, does not cure stupidity and ignorance. Where people don't know, they invent almost anything, however wrong, to fill the vacuum.

The industrialised violence of two world wars has been replaced by a sort of entrepreneurial violence, in the street and, sadly, for many, in the home. Our infants are taught to watch simulated murder every day on TV and to zap other people in video games. The desire to make money at all costs without censorship or taste or concern for human suffering and dignity is raising a generation, the like of which we have never seen before and we have no answers to why a man would plan to drive a truck, mowing down hundreds of complete strangers and no way to stop it happening any day of the week anywhere. In the USA, it is considered desirable to allow any citizen to buy an assault rifle. The rise of nationalism and intolerance of anything remotely "foreign" will lead inexorably to war. Why the more affluent we become, the less willing we are to share beats me.

Appropriate investments might include agricultural land, utilities, particularly water, defence, big pharma, tobacco, brewers, bookmakers, pawnbrokers, gold and maybe food producers ( at the moment, they are subsidiary to the food retailers/brokers but soon enough, those that hold the food at source will have their power restored as it starts to run out. If I were younger, I'd probably buy at least 10 acres of good arable land somewhere in the midlands with access to water. That's all you need for self- sufficient farming, to raise a family.

Cuthbert C

22nd Jul '16

Tangodoc

I object strenuously to your characterisation of those who voted for EXIT as reflecting "..fear and greed expressed by an electorate that …." was essentially different from "…..,the concerned, the invested and, above all, the educated….. "

i also object to your associating EXIT with "... the most uneducated people…(whose) ….views …. diverge so far away from science …...the bizarre ideas held by some people in my own field, medicine, sometimes make me fear for their survival….. equality ... does not cure stupidity and ignorance. Where people don't know, they invent almost anything, however wrong, to fill the vacuum….."

I object equally to your identification of EXIT voters with "...The rise of nationalism and intolerance of anything remotely "foreign"…."

Such comments demonstrate an exceptional level of arrogance and hubris. You are making no effort to undertstand those with whom you disagree and you are presuming their arguments to possess no virtues whilst your own point of view is implicitly superior in every respect.

I voted OUT as did other people of my acquaintance who most certainly do not fit the jaundiced description you provide.

I think that following the deeply flawed campaign we should now be trying to achieve reconciliation between both sides rather than continue the arguments and repeat the extraordinary vilification of each side by the other.

You need to stop wallowing in denial and sneering at others who disagree with you. Theresa May seems to have found the right posture. I commend it to you.

Cuthbert C

22nd Jul '16

I tend to think that there is a better parallel between Trumpism and Corbynism.

Empty rhetoric. Promises but no detailed implementation plans. Disorganisation and incompetence. Strategic incoherence. Track records spanning many years which underline the unfitness for office. Personal disloyalty and indiscipline coupled with appeals for loyalty and discipline from others. Bizarre obsessions. Personal eccentricity.

But support from a grass roots movement populated by people who are not interested in conventional politics and are deeply disenchanted/disillusioned who attribute to their leader the great virtue of being "OTHER" than the established order.

I listened yesterday to Corbynites who seem to regard their man as a) electable and b) suitable to be PM. I cannot imagine the wider electorate sharing that view. I think C is utterly devoid of credibility in the eyes of most non-Corbynites.

I feel much the same with Trump. I know many people are mouthing support for him but I cannot imagine the people who float between parties seeing in him a person of presidential ability. And I cannot imagine unaffiliated women or hispanic voters supporting him.

Or hairdressers.

Rusty2

22nd Jul '16

"Empty rhetoric. Promises but no detailed implementation plans. Disorganisation and incompetence. Strategic incoherence. Track records spanning many years which underline the unfitness for office. Personal disloyalty and indiscipline coupled with appeals for loyalty and discipline from others. Bizarre obsessions. Personal eccentricity."

What does this sound like?

Sounds like Brexit to me.

mgallear

22nd Jul '16

Very easy to get caught up in your own political views rather than what is likely to happen. If Trump wins then the US will become more isolationist and have many more trade/military disputes. So he is generally bad for markets across the world. Clinton is deemed bad for pharmaceutical companies.

So can Trump win? I was hoping that it was unlikely but after Brexit I am not so sure. There are lots people out there who will vote on emotion and not what their self-interest should be which was why the market was so shocked after Brexit.

What should you do? Sell buy gold and wait and be ready to short the world? I have so far done nothing just switching out of one US stock into a UK stock hoping the vaunted recession will not actually happen. I think I have to take the situation more seriously than I did Brexit when I believed the market and not what people around me were saying. However, just watched the richest businessmen in Silicon Valley give trump the thumbs down. If he does not represent them who does he? The US market has not dipped much let alone nosedived. I will watch the opinion polls and make my decision nearer the time.

Cuthbert C

22nd Jul '16

Mgallear

I'm not interested in getting into a sterile debate about Remain vs Exit, but I find it irritating when people lob little snide comments into discussion. I will rebut this one.

"….There are lots people out there who will vote on emotion and not what their self-interest should be which was why…"

But that is exactly why many people voted REMAIN. They knew that the EU has many faults, that these have persisted for many years and that there is no mechanism for correcting them. They knew that there is no means of re-engineering its structure and processes. They know that its benefits are either illusory - like giving us some of our own money back - or misattributed - like crediting it for much of the human rights law that originated in the UK in the first place. They also knew that there is no plan for REMAIN - not just for the UK but for the whole of the EU. It has no plan for monetary control, no plan for economic growth, no solution for the failing economies of some members, and the impending implosion of others. It has no plan to deal with unemployment especially amongst young people. It has no clear strategy for enlargement - eg Turkey. Cameron told Turkey he would help them to join, He told the UK that Turkish membership would never happen. The EU has no plan to deal with migration. It does have long standing ambitions for closer integration including new schemes such as a European army, etc etc etc. AND yet despite this chaotic and disorganised situation and the utterly dysfunctional governance and administrative systems, many REMAINERS felt that staying in was somehow low risk and safe and secure - when it is patently none of those things. That really was a triumph of emotion over objective logic. Of hope over experience.

It is no surprise to me that those of my acquaintance who had very structured careers in big businesses or in public service, tended to vote REMAIN. I think of them as suffering from a combination of Stockholm syndrome and battery chicken thinking. It is no surprise that those who are young and still finding their way in the world also voted REMAIN. They are still unfledged chicks. All of these people wanted protection from the real world in which the rest of humanity makes its way without the imaginary comfort blanket offered by EU membership.

My friends and acquaintances whose lives have been less sheltered and less risk averse tended to vote LEAVE, because they are confident in our ability, to survive and thrive as free range people like most other human beings, who do so with far fewer natural advantages than we enjoy.

mgallear

22nd Jul '16

I didn't realise I was been snide - I did say it is difficult to separate your politics out from how the market will react to an event and how likely it is to happen. I was comparing the chance of Trump becoming President with people voting for BREXIT. The market did not think it would happen but it did. (I should have known better and believed the market would get it right.) Clearly it is very possible for Trump to become President. How likely is another matter. Like the EU not many American's are fervid with the idea of Clinton becoming President.

I hope Tournesol made lots of money out of the Brexit surprise and will also make loads of money out of the future British economy and the market reaction to who becomes president and their policies.

(I would not want to stoke the fire of political debate – having done Political Risk professionally in the past but do you think the EXITERS have a clear policy on immigration and all those people fleeing the situation in Syria and other parts of the Middle Easy – which I suspect was created in part by the actions of our government (not the EU.)

kalkanite

22nd Jul '16

Tournesol

That is an excellent articulated reply which I have duly given the thumbs up. Unfortunately it is part of the human psyche to seek confirmation bias in what we read and hear once we have made a decision so sadly you are probably hitting your head against a brick wall.

I voted Brexit, mostly for the reasons that you have expressed, however, I simply did not know if it was the best outcome, it was my opinion. For that reason I was happy to take the vote what ever way it went, no one can say 100% which route was/is the best but I certainly see the EU as a train hurtling out of control heading towards a cliff, to me it was better to have an organised withdrawal than a crash, but again that is my opinion.

So how have we come to a situation whereby there are so many experts on these boards that "know" what is best? Where on earth do they get the belief that they are so intelligent and 52% of the nation are such idiots? How have they come to this point in life and feel so righteous? I think it very dangerous of any man/woman to believe that they are the all seeing all knowing.

PS Warrenstar, this is not in anyway aimed at you, just the general remoaners sneering and categorising Brexit voters

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THE NEXT BIG THING

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WarrantStar

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