XL Media (XLM) down 30% today : is this overdone and a buying opportunity ?

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11th Jun '18 by weycome45

30 comments 8285 reads

XLM seems to be a fundamentally good stock and I have held it before. Its PE has been way up there before and it was hot last year so why has it been savaged this morning due to its trading statement when it declared EBITDA was only going to be marginally down ?

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About the Author

Weycome45

Premium Member

30 comments

aflash

14th Jun '18

Good chart Taff6.
It puts some sense into the price movements.
I do not understand the numbers in red boxes but please do not explain.

On my own software I could not find any support before 85p.
Meaningful support comes at 77p which was prior resistance in April and Sep-October 2015 and 2016. It looks like the issue price was somewhere around there too.

Anyway it is not going straight to either of those prices soon.

I bought a small amount at 101p hoping for a dead cat bounce.

No Reversal yet.

I may have to jump ship shortly but have set an alert for 77p

mmarkkj777

14th Jun '18

Just bought XLM. The drop seemed to me like an over-reaction. Yes the regulations will affect them (and everyone else in the game, probably equally). Is the company now worth 35% less than last week? Will the out years be materially affected for this company that has fingers in many pies? Who knows.
Old saying: Be brave when others are scared, and be scared when others are brave.

Only concern is that the P Warning may be followed by others, hence stop to limit risk to 6% plus dealing cost (I'm not that brave).

Leebod

14th Jun '18

I bought too early on the fall and got stopped out but hey ho! Win some lose some. Really wanted to hold but must maintain some semblance of order in this investing lark!!

imranawan

14th Jun '18

Are you able to explain what you mean limit risk to 6% plus dealing costs. Is this a stop based on your entry price? If there is another PW than it will probably gap down again.

dscollard

14th Jun '18

I took a position from the 102.5 with a stop set at 92 and Target 1 of 120p: I have added to this at 106p with a b/e stop on position 1 so no net change in risk.

There is evident support at 100p dating back to 2017, in addition the 200 week moving average is at 99.7p: the SP has rarely been below the 200 in the past 3 years so it seems a reasonable assumption that this would hold.

Let's remember that fundamentally XLMedia (LON:XLM) is pretty sound, for now, It is also worth noting that 2 of the directors bought on the bad news in not insignificant amounts and further than there have been no TR-1s since of any instis selling

To be clear, for me this is a trade; there is likely to be a whole load of sell orders sitting in the big price gap above 155p but I will be out long before then

Reversal trades like this are tricky and need iron discipline

I use a suite of tools and processes to be more forensic in my approach, more surgical in my execution and remorseless in my trade management. The combination of price action, volume profile and level 2 trades suggest the worst is over for now .. though I am prepared to change my mind when any of these change

Ben Grahams adage that markets are a voting machine in the short term, and a weighing machine in the long term is well made. This overreaction is the voting machine bit but there may well be more profit warnings in the future

mmarkkj777

14th Jun '18

Hi Imranawan,

Sorry for not being very clear. Just after I bought, I set my stop loss at 100p, which means my risk was limited to 6% of the capital invested, plus the usual fixed price dealing costs (also taking note of the spread).
Its less now, because I have moved the stop loss up.

Hope that explains?

Mark.

aflash

22nd Jun '18

Took profit at 119p June 15. It got to 124 that day, maybe on the offer. Since then is drifiting with low RSI.

Still has good Stocko historical scores and qualifies for two screens.

In comparison: TAP (Taptica) would have been an excellent trade last week. Maybe short coverning.
It is more expensive but has better momentum.
They have both been declining since mid Jan 2018. People who bought then will provide supply for a while.

Large Cap comparable Nielsen (NYQ:NLSN) is considered better value but inferior quality.

à suivre

aflash

11th Jul '18

Back in 4 July 101p.
There is no Gap to fill. Resistance at 126p

MALCOLM SMITH

13th Jul '18

Update out soon and some big buys coming in in the last two days.

Kmasri

19th Jul '18

Xlmedia is looking good investment for long term investors. I mean this is a rare opportunity to buy a good business share at a good price (good business + good investment). I bought lots and expecting a good juicy return on my investment. I also think what happened recently is the panic over the short term price movement and has nothing to do with the value of the business.

"You only bet heavily when the odds are in your favour".

Charlie Munger

Taff6

15th Sep '18

XLMedia (LON:XLM) Monthly chart

The Bullish Bat is Back

XLMedia (LON:XLM) Daiily Chart

Only this time Trend channel and support have been tested and today we have a key day reversal candlestick

Nice PT dscollard

85 (p) Aflash old Resistance becomes new support?

aflash

17th Sep '18

85 (p) Aflash old Resistance becomes new support?

Yes.

No official news on an interim dividend, maybe someone knows there will be one.

john652

17th Sep '18

I am no chartist, but having finished Minervini's excellent book I thought I'd have a look at some charts, and I own XL media, so, to me this looks like a lot of sales (2 * 5M ) has had no effect on the shareprice and a few buys have started to move it up, is this the sales overhang complete and the start of a move up?

Of course I hope so as I didn't follow his stop advice, and didn't get the hell out when I should.
I will paste in the chart when I figure out how too (help) (if you look at the volume of last month in the chart section...

Ah ha, but you have to open the image in a new tab:

5b9f87dac95a0Screen_Shot_2018-09-17_at_1

Gromley

17th Sep '18

I think you are just making your image too large john. As far as I undestand the Stocko editor will just display at the original size rather than scale it to the page.

This I think should be the image you were trying to put up?

Taff6

17th Sep '18

Good point Aflash,

Has anyone received a dividend from XLMedia (LON:XLM) since this debacle,

https://www.stockopedia.com/co...

and if so was it received without issue and in a timely manner?

Albertos

18th Sep '18

Presume the interim dividend will be announced with the interim accounts - due out on 24th Sept.

Phil

Edit - the dividend referred to in the link was paid (going from memory about 2 weeks late)

Taff6

24th Sep '18

I'm taking a dim view of today's update and see 98(P) as pivotal in future direction of price

Maddox

26th Sep '18

I attended the 2018 H1 investor briefing yesterday and found it very reassuring. The key takeaway point for me is that further profit warnings are not expected:

They are highly confident of achieving the revised guidance;
Debt, rather than equity will be used to fund further acquisitions; and
2018's profit warning will be seen as a "blip in the road".

There was a full and frank explanation of the factors leading to the profit warning. An interesting point being that the cyber attacks had a more significant effect than the regulatory issues. Ory stated that he is very happy to be operating in regulated markets, as they already do successfully. However, where regulatory guidance is unclear and/or heavy handed XLMs' clients curtail their marketing activity. This is what occurred, particularly in the UK and Germany - but the situation has now improved.

The new acquisitions are of intangible assets, involving no people, no buildings, no tech infrastructure. The new assets are ported onto their in-house technology infrastructure - so require marginal additional running costs. The integration and trading of the new acquisitions is going well.

I'm thus persuaded that the mark-down (in expectation of the 'rule of three profit warnings' being correct) is overdone. On a p/e of under 9 and yield over 6% XLM looks like good value (95p as I post), although I don't think we can expect sentiment to recover quickly - one for the Contrarian investor I think.

Regards, Maddox

(Declaration: Holding XLM and buying)

Taff6

26th Sep '18

https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/xlmedia-LON:XLM/news/xlmedia-plc-holdings-in-company-urn:newsml:reuters.com:20180926:nRSZ0191Ca/

john652

1st Oct '18

As of Friday Axxion S.A. have over 7% from nothing a week ago. Hovering up the shares but price is still not supported.

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XL Media (XLM) down 30% today : is this overdone and a buying opportunity ?

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Weycome45

30 comments

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