Amundi can stomach Andrea Orcel’s body blows

Amundi SA

03/02/2026 11:31

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

By Neil Unmack

LONDON, Feb 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Amundi AMUN.PA may soon have to live without UniCredit CRDI.MI. The $19 billion fund giant may lose a distribution deal with Andrea Orcel's bank. While that’s a blow for its model, the French group run by Valerie Baudson is growing in other areas, and its valuation looks priced for the worst.

Among Europe’s listed fund managers, Amundi has long been a paradox. With 2.4 trillion euros of assets under management it enjoys unparalleled scale, and a presence in markets like exchange traded funds (ETFs) that can offset the decline of active management. Yet over the past two years, the group has on average traded at just 10 times its expected earnings, a discount to peers DWS and Schroders which trade on 10.8 and 11.2 respectively, as per LSEG data.

One reason is that one of Amundi’s key strengths could in fact be a weakness. Over 300 billion euros of its asset pile are derived from distribution networks with banks like UniCredit and Societe Generale SOGN.PA. If these lenders decide to jump ship, the firm's earnings can swing wildly. That risk is now becoming clear: UniCredit, under hard-nosed CEO Andrea Orcel, is likely to withdraw its assets in order to keep the funds business for itself. RBC analysts estimate a potential hit to earnings of over 15% if all the assets are lost.

Yet results on Tuesday show how Amundi can weather that blow. Its assets with UniCredit shrank by 16 billion euros over the course of the year to 86 billion euros, but were more than offset by growth in other markets and asset classes. Amundi’s pulled in roughly 88 billion euros of new money in the year ending December, enough in theory to completely replace the UniCredit business.

Better still, some of that growth is coming in areas that may be more resilient than traditional stock-picking, and away from the slow-growing European market. Asia accounted for nearly 40% of new funds. Alto, an in-house technology platform for portfolio and performance analytics, is being rolled out to clients, and boosted revenue by 45% to 116 million euros in 2025. A new partnership with credit manager ICG could increase Amundi’s business in private assets like bilateral loans, where margins are higher and assets stickier.

And, even if the worst happens, Amundi’s valuation is not demanding. Assume a full loss of UniCredit, and Amundi’s earnings per share could be 7.26 in 2028, as per Jefferies estimates, implying a multiple of 11 times its expected earnings in that year, modestly above DWS, as per Visible Alpha data. The stock could have a further boost if an IPO of an Indian joint venture, with a potential valuation of $14 billion goes ahead, valuing Amundi’s stake at over 4 billion euros, or roughly a quarter of its market capitalisation. This all suggests Amundi has plenty of buffer to withstand a UniCredit exit.

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CONTEXT NEWS

Amundi on February 3 reported assets under management of 2.38 trillion euros at the end of December, a 6.2% increase on the previous year. During that period the French group amassed 87.6 billion euros of new money from clients.

Amundi also announced a 500 million euro share buyback plan. Its shares rose around 5% to 81.35 euros per share as of 0919 GMT.

Amundi's valuation has lagged peers, despite its size https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/lgpdqyooqvo/chart.png

(Editing by Aimee Donnellan; Production by Shrabani Chakraborty)

((For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on UNMACK/neil.unmack@thomsonreuters.com))