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RNS Number : 7233D  AVI Global Trust PLC  16 October 2025

 

AVI GLOBAL TRUST PLC

 

Monthly Update

 

AVI Global Trust plc (the "Company") presents its Update, reporting
performance figures for the month ended 30 September 2025.

 

This Monthly Newsletter is available on the Company's website at:
AGT-SEPTEMBER-2025.pdf
(https://www.assetvalueinvestors.com/content/uploads/2025/10/AGT-SEPTEMBER-2025.pdf?mc_cid=658c0afc10&mc_eid=335e1499b3)

 

This investment management report relates to performance figures to 30
September 2025.

 

 Total Return (£)    Month  1Y     5Y     10Y
 AGT NAV p/s(1)      -0.1%  12.4%  86.0%  225.3%
 MSCI ACWI(2)        4.0%   16.8%  81.2%  246.7%
 MSCI ACWI ex US(2)  4.0%   16.0%  56.5%  148.1%

 

All performance shown net of fees in GBP Total Return as at 30/09/2025.

(1)Net Asset Value cum-fair.

(2)From 1st October 2023, the comparator benchmark was changed to the MSCI
ACWI Index. Prior to this, from 1st October 2013, the comparator benchmark was
the MSCI ACWI ex US Index.

Source: Morningstar, S&P Capital IQ

 

Manager's Comment

 

AVI Global Trust's (AGT) NAV was flat in September.

 

In a month of modest pickings, News Corp, Aker and Chrysalis were the top
contributors adding a little more than 30bps each. Both D'Ieteren and
Gerresheimer detracted meaningfully, shaving off -98bps and -83bps
respectively.

 

September marks the end of AGT's financial year. AGT delivered respectable
absolute performance, with a NAV total return of +12.4%. In relative terms,
this left the annual performance -4.4% behind the MSCI AC World Index (our
Comparator Benchmark) which returned +16.8%.

 

At the start of September 2025, returns for AGT were fractionally ahead of the
benchmark over the financial year period, however, in the final month AGT's
NAV was flat against a strong and narrow market. Over short periods of time,
our concentrated and differentiated approach will suffer bouts of
underperformance. This is a feature of our strategy: differentiation is a
prerequisite for long-term outperformance, and our history attests to this
fact. Indeed, over the last 5 years, AGT is ranked the 2nd best performing
Trust in the AIC Global peer group, with a total return of 86.0%.

 

As we look ahead, we remain cautiously optimistic. Valuations - as indicated
by the portfolio weighted average discount of 38% - remain highly compelling,
with numerous prospective catalysts and events across the portfolio to help
narrow this. On an underlying basis, we see strong NAV growth potential, which
in the long-term will form the bedrock of our returns. Our history - now
through 40 years as manager of the Trust - suggests that these two facts stand
us in good stead to generate attractive long-term returns.

 

The annual report will be published in early November, and the AGM will be
held on the 19th of December. We hope to see as many of you there as possible.

 

D'Ieteren

 

D'Ieteren was the most significant detractor over the month as the company
reported a weaker, but hardly disastrous set of results, with key asset Belron
(70% of NAV) missing consensus expectations for EBIT by c. 5% on account of
lower margins following higher labour costs and elevated marketing spend. As
things stand, in order to reach full year guidance, Belron requires a rather
momentous step up in margin (~360bps) in the second half of the year and
investors are sceptical as to whether this will occur.

 

The shares sold off -14% in response - indeed September registers as the
stock's largest relative monthly underperformance of the MSCI Europe in more
than a decade. In our view, this speaks to the current market environment
which is characterised by volatility, short termism and an unwillingness to
look any further than the next quarter. We modestly added to the position.

 

To remind readers, Belron - which you might not have heard of - is the global
leader in Vehicle Glass Repair, Replacement, and Recalibration ("VGRR") under
brands such as Auto Glass and Safelite - that you likely will have heard of.
The business is a beneficiary of trends toward increased windshield complexity
and the advent of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems ("ADAS") cameras which
require recalibration. This has massively increased the technical
specification of windshield repair, with a strong price/mix effect resulting
in considerable value growth in recent years. The step up in technology and
the capital equipment required for recalibration - the bar for which is rising
with Belron launching static mobile calibration in 2025 - has further
entrenched Belron's dominance, which also benefits from strong relationships
with insurance partners who shepherd c.70% of jobs to them as a "friendly
middleman".

 

Over the last 12-18 months, the US business - which accounts for 55% of
revenue and has been a key source of growth - has suffered from a weaker
demand environment in the insured market which Belron focus upon. AllState -
the US auto insurer - report that from 2022 to Q3 2024 insurance prices
increased ~40%. To put that in context, they increased ~19% from 2014 to 2017,
and just ~5% from 2018. This has led to altered customer behaviour often
described as "claims avoidance"', whereby many customers have chosen to seek
repair in the cash market - to which Belron under index - leading to declining
volumes.

 

Encouragingly - and in our view overlooked by investors who have principally
focused on Belron's margin - there are tentative signs that the US environment
is improving, with a sequential improvement despite an additional
weather-related headwind. Management sound cautiously optimistic on the
performance over the summer, and other companies operating in US auto-related
services have signalled a turning of the tide.

 

As we move into 2026, we see the pathway for higher topline growth and a
return to the more normal growth algorithm of mid-to-high-single digit growth.

 

We are optimistic that the continued tailwinds from positive mix effect and
operational leverage will drive margins higher (with a target of 25% by 2028)
- even if investors fret about this in the near term.

 

As this occurs - and as leverage continues to come down - we believe this puts
Belron in prime position for a potential IPO, most likely in 2027. As we have
argued for some time, we believe this to be the key catalyst for narrowing
D'Ieteren's discount, which stands shy of 50%.

 

This discount can be sliced and diced in different ways, but whichever way one
cuts it, the stock is cheap: at the current price, shares trade at a 28%
discount to the Belron 2024 transaction value whilst, writing everything else
to zero; alternatively if you believe the other assets are worth NAV, then one
is currently paying an implied high single digit PE multiple for Belron.

 

The combination of this cheap valuation, and the attractive nature of the
underlying assets, bodes well for prospective returns. To date D'Ieteren has
been a successful investment, generating an IRR of +20% since entering the
portfolio in 2022, but we are optimistic that there is more to come.

 

Gerresheimer

 

Gerresheimer was also a notable detractor (-83bps).

 

During the month BaFin, the Germany regulator, announced an investigation into
the company. The probe relates to the treatment of certain Bill & Hold
contacts and whether revenue was correctly recognised in 2024, or whether in
fact it should have been recognised in 2025. Whilst this appears to be a
discrete issue, affecting c.2% of revenues, investors have not unreasonably
run for the hills, with little or no tolerance for a management team and
Supervisory Board that have shown themselves to be at best incompetent.

In our view, this only reinforces the need for wholesale change, with the
reputation of the company having been severely damaged. We continue to
actively engage with the Board, management and other shareholders to arrest
the decline and unlock considerable value - which we believe to be immense
with shares trading at 6.6x NTM EV/EBITDA / 9.0x PE and an EV to Net Plant
Property & Equipment multiple of just 1.9x.

 

Contributors / Detractors (in GBP)(4)

 

 Largest Contributors   1- month contribution  % Weight(3)

                        bps
 News Corp A            35                     7.2
 Aker                   34                     4.1
 Chrysalis Investments  34                     8.3
 Wacom                  22                     2.0
 Harbourvest Global PE  21                     5.3

 

 Largest Detractors  1- month contribution  % Weight(3)

                     bps
 D'Ieteren           -98                    6.5
 Gerresheimer        -83                    3.8
 Tokyo Gas           -13                    2.1
 Symphony            -7                     1.9
 Vivendi             -6                     7.2

 

(3)All Figures shown as % of Net Asset Value

(4)Contributors and detractors from Factset

 

 

MUFG Corporate Governance Limited

Corporate Secretary

 

16 October 2025

 

LEI: 213800QUODCLWWRVI968

 

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than the content of the Newsletter referred to above, is neither incorporated
into nor forms part of the above announcement.

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