MS sees fees behind revenue growth for Italian banks in 2026, prefers BPER
05/01/2026 10:09
** Morgan Stanley expects Italian lenders' revenue in 2026 to be supported mainly by fee income given muted economic growth, though sees more M&A to come ahead ** The brokerage prefers "overweight"-rated Intesa SanPaolo ISP.MI and BPERand names BPER as its top choice saying synergies with Pop Sondrio BPSI.MI could be 30% higher than announced ** It also sees major cost cuts from Intesa thanks to strong previous IT investments, with "above-consensus fee growth and capital return in 2025 and beyond", while looking ahead to its newest business plan in February ** The brokerage also initiates Monte dei Paschi BMPS.MI at "equal weight", expressing caution over Mediobanca's MDBI.MI acquisition synergies, albeit setting an EUR 10.4 PT that implies an upside above 10% ** It also cuts Banco BPM BAMI.MI to "underweight" from "equal weight", seeing capital and dividend returns below sector average and a fair current valuation (Reporting by Mirko Miorelli) ((Mirko.miorelli@thomsonreuters.com))
COMPANY RATING OLD RATING PT OLD PT Intesa SanPaolo ISP.MI Overweight Overweight €7.20 €6.80 BPER Banca EMII.MI Overweight / €13.90 / UniCredit CRDI.MI Equal weight Equal weight €82.60 €76.00 Monte dei Paschi BMPS.MI Equal weight / €10.40 / Banco BPM BAMI.MI Underweight Equal weight €14.00 €13.30
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