Analysis: U.S. gamble on China over Ukraine raises tensions with rival superpower

China Power Equipment

17/03/2022 09:00

By Trevor Hunnicutt and David Brunnstrom
    WASHINGTON/BEIJING, March 17 (Reuters) - The Biden
administration made a carefully orchestrated gamble this week,
issuing a series of public and private threats to Beijing that
it will face consequences if it supports Russia's invasion of
Ukraine. 
    The strategy was capped by a tense, seven-hour meeting in
Rome on Monday between U.S. President Joe Biden's national
security adviser, Jake Sullivan, and China's top diplomat Yang
Jiechi. 
    But having fired loud diplomatic salvos at Beijing, Biden
administration officials are still debating the next steps to
take to ensure China does not help Russia evade Western
sanctions or supply weapons to Moscow as casualties mount in
Ukraine.     
    One immediate result of the Rome meeting was an angrier
Beijing, which was combative in the talks, people briefed on the
interactions say. One U.S.-based person briefed on the meeting
described Chinese officials' response as "tough" and
"offensive." Another said simply that the talks did not go well.
    Washington is now sorting through a host of unanswered
questions, including where any "red line" regarding Ukraine that
China would need to cross to trigger a U.S. response is, and
what exactly that response would be, administration officials
say.
    The Biden administration is waiting to see what China does
before deciding on a course of action. "We're going to be
watching closely," said White House spokesperson Jen Psaki on
Monday. A senior U.S. official said they would be looking at
what military, economic, or other support is being provided to
Russia.
    The United States on Monday told allies in NATO and several
Asian countries that China had signaled its willingness to
provide military and economic aid to Russia to support its war
in Ukraine.
    Sullivan had warned before the talks that China would
"absolutely" face consequences if it helped Moscow evade
sweeping sanctions over Ukraine.
    China, which announced a "no limits" strategic partnership
with Russia in February, may find it hard to change course and
back down after a threat was made public, said Kevin Gallagher,
who leads the Global Development Project at Boston University.
    "This wasn't a good strategic move," he said. "Like the
United States, China has a domestic constituency." 
    He Weiwen, senior fellow at the Chongyang Institute for
Financial Studies at Beijing's Renmin University said: "The U.S.
has an intention to crackdown on China, and the Russia-Ukraine
conflict provides a reason for it to do so," describing the U.S.
warnings as "blackmail."     
    Sources in the Biden administration and diplomats in
Washington and Europe say Western countries had been sending
private warnings to Beijing about China's support for Russian
President Vladimir Putin for weeks before the Rome meeting.    
    Russia has denied asking China for military assistance, and
China warned this week of "false information," in apparent
reference to U.S. statements. 
    "China firmly opposes any words and deeds that spread false
information and distort and smear China's position," Yang said,
according to the official Xinhua news agency. Beijing's official
newspaper, the People's Daily, carried a column noting the
inaccurate U.S. intelligence that led to the Iraq invasion.  
    Some U.S. allies also quietly questioned the intelligence
Washington was relying upon regarding the Russian and Chinese
conversations, several European diplomatic sources said.
    
    SANCTIONS DISCUSSIONS NOT ADVANCED
    Discussions between the United States and its military
allies of any coordinated sanctions that could apply to Beijing
are not advanced, according to one person involved in those
conversations. 
    A move to sanction China over Ukraine would have potentially
dire consequences, not just for China, but for the U.S. and
global economies, analysts say.
    China trades vastly more with the United States and its NATO
than it does with Russia, and the Chinese economy relies heavily
on international markets and capital. However, the talks between
Sullivan and Yang did not focus on trade, one U.S. official
noted.
    Biden entered office regarding China as the key foreign
policy challenge of the era, one that required a more hardline
defense of democratic values against autocratic competitors. 
    But Biden hoped that his candid personal relationship with
China's leader Xi Jinping could defuse the likelihood of a Cold
War or a direct military clash between the world's current
superpower and its rising superpower, including over the status
of Taiwan.
    "China is either going to side with Russia and reinforce the
sense that it has joined an 'axis of autocracy,' or it is going
to put significant space between Moscow and Beijing and
demonstrate that it genuinely cares about preserving even a
basic relationship with the rest of the world," said Scott
Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies.
    "If it turns down this opportunity, it's not clear to me
there will be a next time to meet and set aside differences. The
ball is entirely in Beijing's court."

    <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Kyiv apartment block shelled but 'hard' Ukraine peace talks go
ahead     urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL2N2VH034
US says China, Russia seek profoundly illiberal world order    
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-says-china-russia-seek-profoundly-illiberal-world-order-2022-02-23/
    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
 (Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt, Andrea Shalal, Michael Martina,
Steve Holland, David Brunnstrom, Alexandra Alper, Humeyra Pamuk,
Phil Stewart, and the Beijing bureau; Writing by Trevor
Hunnicutt; Editing by Heather Timmons and Alistair Bell)
 ((trevor.hunnicutt@tr.com; +1 (332) 219 1571;
twitter.com/TrevorNews; Reuters Messaging:
trevor.hunnicutt.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))