Explainer: Turkey's local vote a test for Erdogan and rival Imamoglu

Emlak Konut Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi

31/03/2024 24:00

(Updates links)
    By Ece Toksabay
       ANKARA, March 31 (Reuters) - Turkey holds municipal
elections across 81 provinces on Sunday March 31, with President
Tayyip Erdogan's AK Party (AKP) aiming to reclaim cities it lost
in 2019, including the country's largest city of Istanbul and
the capital Ankara.
    On Sunday, polling stations will be open from 7 a.m. to 4
p.m. in eastern provinces and from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. in the rest
of the country. Initial results are expected by 10 p.m. (1900
GMT) on Sunday. 
    Analysts see the vote as a nationwide gauge of Erdogan's
support and the opposition's durability, especially that of
Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu of Istanbul. A tight race is expected in
the city that is home to more than 16 million people and drives
more than a quarter of the nation's GDP.
     
    WHAT'S AT STAKE? 
    In the last local vote in 2019, the main opposition
Republican People's Party (CHP) shocked Erdogan when it
prevailed in Istanbul and Ankara and ended more than two decades
of rule by the AKP and its Islamist predecessors. 
    Erdogan, who has ruled Turkey for more than two decades and
campaigned hard for the AKP in recent weeks, launched his
political career as mayor of Istanbul in 1994.
    Almost 11 million people are eligible to vote in the city,
the Supreme Election Council says. Turnout in both general and
local elections is very high in Turkey at close to 90%.
    Incumbent CHP Mayor Imamoglu's main challenger is the AKP's
Murat Kurum, a former government minister. Polls give Imamoglu a
slight edge.  
    Last May, Erdogan was re-elected president and his alliance
won a majority in parliament in tight general elections - a
result that splintered and disheartened an alliance of the CHP
and other opposition parties. 
     
    WHY DOES IT MATTER? 
    The budget of Istanbul metropolitan municipality dwarfs all
other 80 cities in the country at 516 billion lira ($16.05
billion) in 2024, including its subsidiaries. The budget of the
second city, Ankara, is 92 billion. 
    Controlling big cities and their budgets can give parties
say over financing, contracts and job creation, boosting their
popularity on the national stage.
    Istanbul holds special importance for Erdogan as he rose to
the national political stage during his time as mayor between
1994 and 1998.
    Imamoglu has emerged as the opposition's main alternative to
Erdogan. If he wins a second mayoral term, he would very likely
run in the next presidential vote, analysts say, while a loss
could stunt his career and leave the opposition in further
disarray. 
    For Erdogan, regaining Istanbul and Ankara would bolster his
pursuit of a new constitution that could potentially extend his
rule beyond 2028, which marks the end of his current term,
analysts say.
    Under the existing constitution, the presidency is limited
to two terms. Erdogan secured a third term last year thanks to a
legal loophole resulting from the transition to a presidential
system in 2018, as his initial term was served under the
previous system.
    "The electoral test is also significant for Erdogan's
pursuit of a new constitution (or constitutional amendments) to
side-step presidential term limits and remove the remaining
elements of judicial independence," said Wolfango Piccoli,
co-President of Teneo.
     
    WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES?
     
    MURAT KURUM, AKP, ISTANBUL:
    Kurum, 47, was environment and urbanization minister from
July 2018 until last June, leaving the post after the general
elections in 2023. He was then elected as a member of parliament
for Istanbul. 
    Born in Ankara, Kurum served at the state mass housing
agency TOKI from 2005 to 2009 and later as the general manager
of Emlak Konut, a government-run real estate investment
trust.     
     EKREM IMAMOGLU, CHP, ISTANBUL:
     Imamoglu, 52, originally from the Black Sea city of
Trabzon, was a district mayor in the city before becoming
Istanbul mayor. 
    He won the 2019 election in Istanbul with the backing of an
alliance of the CHP, the nationalist IYI Party, and the
pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (DEM), which is now called
DEM. This year IYI and DEM are running their own candidates. 
Many of Turkey's Kurds are set to put aside party loyalty and
back Imamoglu on Sunday, according to pollsters.
     
    CHP'S MANSUR YAVAS, AKP'S TURGUT ALTINOK:
    Pollsters say Ankara's incumbent Mayor Mansur Yavas, a
former district mayor in Ankara, is comfortably ahead of AKP
challenger Turgut Altinok, another former district mayor.    
     
    OTHER PROVINCES:
    Turks will also vote in the other 79 provinces of the
country, casting four votes in total: one for the mayor of their
province, one for their district mayor, one for the district
council and another for the local administrator of their
neighbourhood. 
    Other competitive cities include CHP-run Antalya, Bursa, and
Adana. 
    ($1 = 32.1467 liras)

(Additional reporting by Huseyin Hayatsever, Editing by Jonathan
Spicer, Alexandra Hudson)
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