CEE MARKETS-Forint keeps firming after inflation surprise

Komercni Banka as

12/02/2025 09:54

By Alan Charlish
       WARSAW, Feb 12 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint
 EURHUF=  touched a 3-1/2 month high on Wednesday, as it
continued to firm after a higher-than-expected inflation reading
gave the central bank less room for lowering rates.
    Central banks across the region have been sending hawkish
signals recently, saying that high inflation means they will
have to be cautious about cutting the cost of credit at a time
when major central banks have been easing policy.
    The Hungarian forint was 0.30% firmer against the euro at
402.15 at 0903 GMT. Hungarian inflation surged to an annual rate
of 5.5% in January, above analysts' forecasts, according to data
published on Tuesday.
    "The data have led to lower interest rate cut expectations,
with market participants pricing in only one rate cut this year
instead of two, while the forint has strengthened in parallel,"
brokerage Equilor said in a note.
    Hungarian central banker Gyula Pleschinger told Reuters
earlier in February that he saw no opportunity for interest rate
cuts this year.
    In the Czech Republic, a final inflation reading on
Wednesday confirmed flash data that had come in above analysts'
estimates.
    The Czech National Bank resumed its interest rate-cutting
cycle in February, but said it would be cautious about the pace
of further easing, given persistent risks from services price
inflation.
    The Czech crown  EURCZK=  was holding steady at 25.074.
    "January inflation in the CEE region is usually volatile and
so far this year we have seen upside surprises in the Czech
Republic last week and in Hungary yesterday," ING said in a
note. 
    "While in the Czech Republic, this leads to more caution on
further rate cuts, in Hungary our economists now see stable
rates all this year as more likely after yesterday's surprise in
inflation."
    Poland and Romania will publish inflation data on Friday.
The Romanian leu  EURRON=  was flat at 4.9765 while the Polish
zloty  EURPLN=  was hovering around recent 7-year highs at
4.1725.
    "It seems like this is still not the end of the PLN
appreciation," said a Warsaw-based currency trader. "(There is)
the pretty strict monetary policy of the National Bank of Poland
(NBP), this is the background. We have also some foreign
investors interested in Polish assets."
    
    
 CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT  1003 CET                    
 
 
 CURRENCIES         Latest   Previou  Daily   Change
                    trade    s close  change  in 2025
                                              
 Czech                                   %  
 Hungary                0        0       %  
 Polish                                     
 Romanian                                   
 Serbian                0        0       %  
 Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET          
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 STOCKS             Latest   Previou  Daily   Change
                             s close  change  in 2025
                                              
 Prague     .PX     1948.19  1940.44   +0.40   +10.68%
                                  00       %  
 Budapest   .BUX    88130.1  87713.7   +0.47   +11.10%
                          7        3       %  
 Warsaw    <.WIG20  2563.68  2535.24   +1.12   +16.96%
           >                               %  
 Buchares   .BETI   17239.1  17221.7   +0.10    +3.10%
 t                        6        8       %  
 
 
 
 
 
 BONDS              Yield    Yield    Spread  Daily
                    (bid)    change   vs      change
                                      Bund    in
                                              spread
                                              
                                              
 Czech                                 ps  
 2-year                                       
 Czech                                 ps  
 5-year                                       
 Czech                                ps  
 10-year                                      
                                                      
 Poland                                ps  
 Poland                                ps  
 Poland                               ps  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 FORWARD RATE       3x6      6x9      9x12    3M
 AGREEMENTS                                   interban
                                              k
 Czech                                       
                                            
 Hungary                                     
                                             
 Poland                                      
                                             
 Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices                  
 
 
 

    
    

 (Reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw, Krisztina Than and
Gergely Szakacs in Budapest, Jan Lopatka in Prague; Editing by
Bernadette Baum)
 ((alan.charlish@thomsonreuters.com;))
 
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