CEE MARKETS-FX boosted by hawkish cenbank comments, Ukraine peace hopes

Komercni Banka as

07/02/2025 10:34

By Alan Charlish
       WARSAW, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Central European currencies
clung on to recent gains on Friday amid hawkish signals on
interest rates from central bankers and optimism about a
possible end to the war in Ukraine.
    The Czech National Bank resumed its interest rate-cutting
cycle on Thursday, lowering the main two-week repo rate by 25
basis points while sounding caution on the pace of further
easing, given persistent risks from service price inflation.
    Meanwhile, Poland's central bank governor, Adam Glapinski,
said that above-target inflation meant there were no grounds for
cutting interest rates at the moment.
    "The Polish central bank governor didn't say anything that
could bring interest rate cuts closer than late 2025, early
2026," said Marcin Sulewski, CEE Economist at Ipopema
Securities. 
    "And yesterday, the Czech Central Bank also sounded rather
hawkish (saying) that there's not much room to cut interest
rates, so this was positive."
    The Polish zloty  EURPLN=  and Czech crown  EURCZK=  were
steady versus the euro at 4.1915 and 25.08 respectively.
    Sulewski added that increased hopes of an end to the
Russia-Ukraine war had also boosted markets recently.
    Analysts also said that markets would be watching U.S.
payrolls data.
    Ukraine is prepared to engage in negotiations to end the
war, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday, but he
stressed that the U.S. and Europe must take part in any talks.
    Meanwhile, the Hungarian forint  EURHUF=  held onto its
gains from the previous session to trade at 404.60, after also
having been boosted by hawkish comments from a central banker.
    Hungarian rate-setter Gyula Pleschinger told Reuters on
Thursday that he saw no opportunity for interest rate cuts this
year. He said Hungary's average inflation rate could rise to
4.1% or 4.2% this year, with possible U.S. tariffs on European
imports posing upside risks.
    
    
 CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT  1056 CET             
 
 
 CURRENCIES      Latest  Previo  Daily  Change
                 trade   us      chang  in 2025
                         close   e      
 Czech             0       0      %  
 Hungar           00      00     2%  
 forint                                 
 Polish                          0%  
 Romani                           %  
 Serbia           00      00     7%  
 dinar                                  
 Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 STOCKS          Latest  Previo  Daily  Change
                         us      chang  in 2025
                         close   e      
                                        
 Prague   .PX    1908.4  1903.5   +0.2   +8.43%
                      7     700     6%  
 Budape   .BUX   87082.  86995.   +0.1   +9.78%
 st                  48      74     0%  
 Warsaw  <.WIG2  2473.1  2460.4   +0.5   +12.83
         0>           5       5     2%        %
 Buchar  <.BETI  17168.  17141.   +0.1   +2.68%
 est     >           54      27     6%  
 
 
 
 
 
 BONDS           Yield   Yield   Sprea  Daily
                 (bid)   change  d vs   change
                                 Bund   in
                                        spread
                                        
                                        
                                        
 Czech                    0    bps  
 2-year                                 
 Czech                    0    bps  
 5-year                                 
 Czech                   0    bps  
 10-yea                                 
 r                                      
                                               
 Poland                   0    bps  
 Poland                   0    bps  
 Poland                  0    bps  
 r                                      
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 FORWARD RATE    3x6     6x9     9x12   3M
 AGREEMENTS                             interba
                                        nk
 Czech                                
                                     
 Hungar                               
                                      
 Poland                               
                                      
 Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices           
 
 
 
                                               
 

    
    
    
    
    

 (Reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw, Anita Komuves in
Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague; editing by Mark Heinrich)
 ((alan.charlish@thomsonreuters.com;))
 
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