Insight: Clock starts ticking for Canada's Trudeau after bid for majority fails
21/09/2021 21:22
By Steve Scherer and David Ljunggren
OTTAWA, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Canadian Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau failed in his bid to win a Liberal majority government
after a low-energy campaign in the middle of the pandemic, and
party insiders see an increasing chance he will step down before
the next vote.
Trudeau, 49, called Monday's election two years early
seeking to benefit from his government's handling of COVID-19.
But provisional results showed he came away with another
minority administration, which will once again force him to work
with opposition legislators.
Four senior Liberals said there was no sign of a coordinated
move to oust Trudeau, who has imposed tight control over a party
known for previous bouts of infighting.
But coming up short of his goal in his third election cast
immediate doubts on the future of his leadership and could spur
him to leave of his own accord. No prime minister for more than
100 years has won four consecutive elections. Trudeau's father
tried and failed in 1979.
"This is his party at this point, we are his party," said a
Liberal who helped run the campaign and requested anonymity
given the sensitivity of the situation.
"I'm not sure if I were him I'd want to run again ... you
don't really want to wear out your welcome to such an extent
that your successor gets trashed in the next election."
Potential successors include Finance Minister Chrystia
Freeland and Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne,
two heavyweight cabinet members.
Trudeau, a charismatic progressive and son of former Liberal
Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, swept to power in 2015. After six
years in office, however, voters looked at the Liberal leader
with fatigue.
RECOIL TO VOTE
Trudeau decided to call a snap vote after opposition
legislators blocked his budget and other bills during a charged
June session, three well-placed sources said.
"The events of June made clear we had to go to the polls in
the summer. It was just too painful - we couldn't go through
that again," said one Liberal.
But from the day Trudeau made the call on Aug 15, he had
trouble dealing with opposition accusations that it was a power
grab.
"There was a recoil (by voters). Trudeau said 'I have good
numbers. I can go into an election,' not realizing that he had
good numbers because there was no election," said Philippe
Fournier, analyst at the 338.com political website.
Other insiders said Trudeau and his inner circle had failed
to realize that the people they would need to run the campaign
were exhausted after 15 months fighting COVID-19.
Half way through, a second Liberal said campaign workers
were "just so tired, they don't care if they win or lose."
In response, Trudeau spokesman Cameron Ahmad said "campaign
staff worked incredibly hard every step of the way, as they
always do." He did not address questions about Trudeau's future
or whether the early election call had been a mistake.
One senior strategist said canvassers knocking on doors were
picking up unhappiness with Trudeau.
Still, even as Trudeau's numbers began to fall in August,
Liberal campaign officials initially expressed little concern.
"These first two weeks are just froth, there's nothing to
it. Nobody's paying attention much," said a third Liberal.
Asked about the minority, the first Liberal said: "it is
what it is .. Canadians decided that's what they wanted."
Among the public, Trudeau himself generated more fatigue
than excitement.
"The problem was that right from the start, we never came up
with a good answer to the obvious question of 'Why are you
calling an unnecessary election in the middle of a pandemic?'" a
Liberal strategist said towards the end of the campaign as it
became clear a majority was not on the cards.
After the election, Liberals sketched out a possible
scenario whereby Trudeau would make clear he intended to keep
the government alive for at least three years, giving him time
to focus on priorities such as child care and battling climate
change while pondering his future.
Trudeau is due to speak publicly this week and could offer
details on what he is planning.
A senior adviser and a senior lawmaker said Trudeau did not
want to be in power forever, but would fight a fourth campaign
if the government falls before he can push through significant
parts of his agenda.
Minority governments usually last about 18 months but in
theory can last four years if no-one brings them down.
LAST ELECTION?
Trudeau, who has three young children, became a Liberal
legislator in 2008 and took over the leadership in 2013 at a
point when its future looked dark. Two years later he became the
first Canadian leader to ever take a party from third place to
victory.
"The main question becomes, is he having fun? I don't think
the next phase of this pandemic is going to be fun, I don't
think our fiscal situation is going to be fun," said another
well-placed advisor, putting the chances of Trudeau deciding in
early 2023 he would leave at 50-50.
"I wouldn't be surprised if this was Trudeau's last election
.. winning three back-to-back is hard," said Tamara Small,
professor of Political Science at the University of Guelph.
The Conservatives, who have now lost three consecutive
elections, may again end up seeking a new leader.
Although the Conservatives won more of the popular vote than
the Liberals for the second consecutive election, Trudeau's lock
on Toronto ensured he ended up ahead.
The Liberals and the New Democrats led by Jagmeet Singh -
who favors heavy spending on social programs - have a
comfortable majority in the 338-seat House of Commons.
Waiting for her son to speak after falling short of his
majority goal, his mother Margaret Trudeau, with whom he is very
close, was confident a minority government would work out.
"You don't want too much power to end up anywhere, do you?"
she told reporters. "I know that Jagmeet is a wonderful man,
compassionate like Justin."
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Trudeau wins reelection, but his Liberal Party fails to regain
majority government https://graphics.reuters.com/CANADA-ELECTION/zgpombazapd/CANADA-ELECTION-RESULTS.jpg
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Reporting by David Ljunggren
Editing by Alistair Bell)
((david.ljunggren@tr.com; +1 647 480 7891;))